Hi, it’s Ian again. I’m filling in for Puneet this week. He will be back on this day next week.

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The 2026-27 Fantasy Guide is now available! Projections, writeups on each team, and much more! Get yours at the Dobber Sports store.

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The Offseason Fantasy Grades articles will be returning on Tuesday. We will cover them in reverse alphabetical order this season, so Winnipeg Jets fans will not have to wait until the end like they have in past seasons. You can find last season's Offseason Fantasy Grades here if you would like a trip down memory lane to see what the teams looked like at this time last year.

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The 2025‑26 season produced some statistical swings. But underneath the box scores, unsustainable metrics reveal who's primed to rebound. These players may seem underwhelming or predictable on the surface, but their underlying shooting percentage numbers show possible positive regression.

Kent Johnson

The ultra-talented Johnson is an intriguing case study this season. His scoring didn't just dip in 2025‑26 — it cratered. After posting 24 goals and 57 points the year prior, he managed only seven goals and 22 points this past season. The regression was dramatic, but the underlying reasons paint a clearer picture.

Johnson's ice time dropped by roughly four minutes per game, including a full minute shaved off his power‑play usage. That's effectively the difference between regularly appearing on PP1 and being stuck on PP2, and the results showed it: his power‑play production fell from 15 points to just two.

His shot volume slipped slightly (1.8 SOG/GP down to 1.5), but the real damage showed in the advanced metrics. His 5‑on‑5 shooting percentage fell from 13.3% to 8.3%, his PTS/60 was cut in half (2.9 to 1.3), and his PDO dropped from 1031 to 975. The biggest collapse was his individual shooting percentage, which plunged from a career‑high 19.5% to a four‑year low of 6.1%.

All of this suggests Johnson's true talent level lies somewhere between 22 and 57 points — not at either extreme. He's a reasonable buy‑low in keeper formats where patience is rewarded, but he's far from a must‑draft in single‑season leagues. Monitor his deployment closely, especially his power‑play role. If he climbs back onto PP1, he becomes a prime waiver‑wire target.

Marco Kasper

Kasper didn't experience the same dramatic collapse as Johnson, but his step back was still significant. After a promising 19‑goal, 37‑point rookie campaign in 2024‑25, he slipped to just nine goals and 19 points in 2025‑26.

The underlying numbers reinforce the decline. His shooting percentage dropped from 13.1% to 6.9%, his PTS/60 fell from 1.9 to 1.0, and his secondary assist rate cratered from 61.1% to just 20%. That's a massive shift in how often he was involved in scoring plays.

Deployment also played a major role in that. Kasper went from an almost even offensive‑zone start rate of 49.9% to just 42.4% — the lowest among any Detroit skater who played at least 40 games. If the coaching staff views him primarily as a defensive specialist, he may ultimately settle in as a better real‑life contributor than fantasy asset. However, if Dylan Larkin is moved and Detroit doesn't bring back a true top‑six center, Kasper could be thrust into more offensive situations by necessity.

A modest rebound is likely, perhaps back into the 30‑point range. He's entering his third NHL season, and there's still plenty of room for offensive growth. Kasper isn't a must‑target in most formats, but he's a name to monitor — especially if his deployment trends upward.

Timo Meier

Among the NHL's top 100 goal scorers in 2025‑26, Timo Meier was the only player shooting below 10% — finishing at just 8.9%. That fits his profile as a pure volume shooter: his 266 shots ranked inside the league's top 10, and he's topped 300 shots twice in his career.

Historically, Meier lives in the 10–13% shooting range, so last season's dip was well outside the norm. His 5‑on‑5 shooting percentage collapsed to 6.4%, the lowest mark of his 10‑year career, and his 958 PDO sat far below the typical ~1000 baseline. Put simply, he wasn't just inefficient, he was unlucky.

A massive rebound isn't likely, and expecting another push toward 40 goals is unrealistic. But a return to the low‑30s is a reasonable target if his percentages normalize. Combine that with his elite shot generation and strong hit totals, and Meier remains a fixture inside the Top 100 Roto Rankings.

Mackenzie Weegar

Weegar's 20‑goal outburst two seasons ago in Calgary looks more and more like an outlier. Across his nine‑year career, he hasn't reached double‑digit goals in any other season, and 2025‑26 brought him back down to earth in a big way.

His power‑play production fell sharply — just six power-play points this past season after posting 21 the year before. His overall scoring has trended downward for three straight years: 52 points in 2023‑24, 47 in 2024‑25, and only 28 in 2025‑26. Before being traded, he occasionally saw time on Calgary's top unit, but his power‑play role shrank after arriving in Utah. Landing on the Mammoth's second unit should help stabilize things, but it won't recreate his Calgary usage.

There's still room for a mild rebound. Weegar scored only four goals this season, and a jump from his 2.6% shooting percentage alone could push him back toward the 6–8 goal range. Improvements from his 0.9 PTS/60 and a 948 PDO also point toward some positive regression — just not enough to expect another 40‑ or 50‑point campaign.

Where Weegar remains extremely valuable is in multicategory formats. He finished fifth league‑wide in 2025-26 in combined shots, hits, and blocks with 496 — elite volume for banger leagues. And if your format counts plus/minus, his brutal minus‑33 should improve now that he's out of Calgary's defensive chaos.

Weegar may never return to his peak scoring totals, but even modest offensive improvement would make him universally rostered again in multicat formats thanks to his across‑the‑board peripherals.

Sam Dickinson

Imagine scoring 29 goals in junior one season and then just one the next. That's the reality Sam Dickinson faced. After ripping 29 goals in 55 games with the London Knights in 2024‑25, he managed only a single tally during his rookie campaign with the Sharks.

The underlying numbers explain the collapse. Dickinson fired 72 shots in 2025‑26, but only one found the back of the net — an abysmal 1.4% shooting percentage. Defensemen naturally shoot from lower‑percentage areas, but anything in the 1–2% range is still extremely low. Even modest regression would push his goal total upward.

There are other encouraging signs. His 46.5% offensive‑zone start rate is surprisingly low for a young, offensively inclined blueliner, and he saw just 6.0% power‑play usage. If the Sharks give him more offensive deployment — especially a bump in power-play time — there's plenty of room for growth.

Dickinson isn't about to become a goal‑scoring machine overnight, but betting on improvement is reasonable. With better usage and natural regression from his microscopic shooting percentage, he has breakout potential.

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