Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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DobberHockey’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide is now available in the Dobber Shop! This year’s edition includes the Fantasy Guide itself, which features team-by-team overviews, a schedule breakdown, players due for positive and negative regression, long-term projects to invest in, and a whole lot more. Also included with the purchase is an interactive draft list that includes point projections, peripheral projections for blocks, Hits, shots, penalty minutes, and plus/minus, as well as goalie projections.

All this is updated through to the start of the regular season to reflect injuries, trades, or other pertinent information. Help support what we do year-round and grab a copy of the Draft Guide! 

The French version, le Guide des Poolers, is also available. You can pre-order it here. 

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1. I have been perusing the Dobber guide and for anyone still on the fence about how it can help readers in their quest for a fantasy championship, I thought it was worth going through different sections of the Guide to highlight some interesting takeaways. This is obviously just a tiny fraction of what’s available in the Guide itself, so for all the rest, be sure to head to the Dobber Shop and order a copy!

Schedule Breakdown by Caleb Desjardins:

Back-To-Backs for the Calgary Flames

Caleb Desjardins, who writes the weekly ‘Top 10‘ column and covers the ‘Looking Ahead‘ column during the season, has a thorough breakdown of the 2026-27 NHL schedule. The schedule looks a bit different this year thanks to the season starting in late September and moving to 84 games. What stuck out to me immediately is that the Flames are tied for the fewest back-to-back situations this campaign with eight.

Last year, Calgary goalie Dustin Wolf finished tied for seventh in the league with 55 starts. Over the last two seasons, he is ninth in the league with 108 starts. Despite having 730 fewer minutes played across those two seasons than Utah Mammoth goalie Karel Vejmelka, Wolf only had 12 fewer total saves. If he’s healthy and doesn’t fall on his face, Wolf should make at least 55 starts again and because of Calgary’s lack of back-to-back situations, he’s a threat to make 60 starts. Wins may be tough to come by on a low-scoring Flames roster, but he has a realistic shot at finishing top-5 in total saves.

Among 34 goalies with at least 35 starts in 2025-26, Wolf finished 17^th by save percentage but he was sixth in total saves. This is why scoring settings matter because he might not be a big help in roto leagues using save percentage, but points formats using total saves is another matter entirely. (july30)

2. A Light-Heavy Schedule for the Nashville Predators

Fantasy success is not just about raw production, but when that production comes. Caleb has a section highlighting how many Light Days a team has, or how often they play on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, or Sunday, the days which typically have the fewest games on the NHL schedule. There are 24 teams who have at least 30 games on light days, only two have fewer than 25 games on light days, and Nashville has the fewest light-day contests with 22.

This is a problem for a team like Nashville. They aren’t the Florida Panthers or Dallas Stars where they have at least five skaters that are locked into fantasy lineups on a game-in, game-out basis. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi fit that category, but they have a lot of borderline options like Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Evangelista, Mavrik Bourque, and Brady Skjei. Maybe we include Steven Stamkos, but remember that he had just six goals in his first 25 games last season, and is now 36 years old. Even if we include him, it makes three skaters at most.

Nashville could have a half-dozen skaters whose fantasy value at the end of the season finishes inside the top-200, but only two end up inside the top 100, and the more marginal options end up riding the bench because of the high number of Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday matchups. Something you head-to-head fantasy managers should keep in mind. (july30)

3. Outliers by Rick Roos:

Beware of Jason Zucker‘s Production

Over the last two seasons in Buffalo, Zucker has averaged 27 goals, 60 points, 165 shots, 26 blocks, 76 hits, and 49 PIMs every 82 games. That is good across-the-board coverage, and it has made him a sneakily valuable multi-cat fantasy option when he’s been healthy.

Zucker is starting to get up there in age as he’ll turn 35 years old in January. With the regular season breakout of Josh Doan, Zach Benson‘s excellent playoff performance, and Konsta Helenius showing a lot of promise in his brief stint, there is a lot of competition for meaningful offensive ice time among Buffalo’s forwards. In his ‘Outliers’ write-up, Rick Roos noted there were 14 forwards who played at least half their team’s contests and averaged at least a 50-point pace while skating under 16 minutes a game. One of them was Zucker, who had the fifth-highest point-per-game pace (0.73) for the under-16 group. Roos also noted that many older players who had similar production rates at that ice time level in 2024-25 saw a decline in 2025-26, and that is the group where Zucker finds himself for 2026-27. 

A big reason for Zucker’s success was shooting 18.6%, a career-high mark and far exceeding his three-year average of 12.7%. If he shoots just 14%, he drops from a 60-point pace to a 52-point pace. He has one year left on his current contract and will be a free agent at 35 years old next summer. If players like Doan, Benson, and Helenius continue their ascension, not to mention a full season from Noah Ostlund and a returning Jiri Kulich, Zucker’s role and ice time could shrink even further. Given his production, his ice time, and his age, Zucker is showing a lot of red flags for fantasy value. (july30)

4. Players to Invest In for Long-Term Payoff by Logan Clarkson:

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Easton Cowan Showing Promise

The issues facing Cowan for his true ascension in the fantasy realm are the roadblocks ahead of him. Auston Matthews and John Tavares are signed for two and three more years, respectively, while William Nylander and Matthew Knies are signed long-term. Add in Gavin McKenna and for now, Cowan is no higher than sixth on the forward depth chart. There are very few teams where the sixth-most important forward will be a significant fantasy contributor in most formats.

However, as Logan points out, Cowan was very productive as a rookie with 29 points in 56 games, and he has a significant production pedigree from his OHL days. Toronto’s forward depth might keep Cowan from a top PP role, and thus a lot of fantasy value, but it also gives him talented forwards to skate with at 5-on-5 and he’ll be a staple of the second PP unit. There are some defensive issues to clean up, and there are roadblocks to overcome, but this is why it’s an investment for a long-term payoff. Cowan has the skills and the support group to really take off a couple of years from now, just don’t expect it in 2026-27. (july30)

5. Pavel Mintyukov Ready to Step Up

The Anaheim Ducks have overhauled their blue line, and while that makes Jackson LaCombe the go-to guy at even strength and on the power play (I wrote about why he’s one of my favourite defence targets this year), it also makes Mintyukov the second guy on the depth chart. Per Frozen Tools, Mintyukov was fourth among Ducks defencemen by ice time in the playoffs, and two of the guys ahead of him (Jacob Trouba, John Carlson) are now gone from the organization.

LaCombe taking top PP time will keep Mintyukov’s production modest – in 2025-26, there were 22 defencemen who posted at least 50 points, none of them had 10-or-fewer power-play points, and only two of them had fewer than 15 (Carlson had 14 and Brock Faber had 11). However, for his career, Mintyukov has averaged 28 points every 82 games and that’s with just five power-play points every 82 games. He has done that averaging 18:16 per game. At a consistent production rate, if he skates 21 minutes a game, he pushes up to 32 points. If his production rate improves as the young Ducks forward group improves? It puts 40 points within reach. That would be his upside, but he can get there. It may not happen right away, but he doesn’t turn 23 years old until November, so a couple more years of development with more ice time means he can be a 40-point blue liner in future seasons. (july30)

6. Goalies to Watch by Garrett Finlay:

Joey Daccord‘s Support

Since finishing 4^th in scoring back in 2022-23 with 3.53 goals per 60 minutes, the Seattle Kraken have scored under 3.0 goals per 60 minutes in each of the last three seasons. It has been a problem for Daccord as among 28 goalies with at least 110 starts over the last three years, he has the third-worst win rate (45%), picking up the victory in just 66 of his 147 starts. If a goalie makes 50 starts and is a relative longshot to win 25 of them, it’s a big issue for his fantasy value.

However, as Finlay points out in his write-up on goalies to watch, the Kraken might finally have a scoring top line thanks to the additions of Bobby McMann and Mackie Samoskevich. With productive veterans like Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann, and improving youngsters like Jani Nyman and Berkly Catton, the Kraken boast some scoring depth, too. The team probably won’t be a top 10 scoring roster, but if they can be just below-average, rather than outright bad, Daccord has a real chance of not only reaching 25 wins, but reaching or surpassing his career-high win total of 27 set back in the 2024-25 campaign. That year, Seattle finished 16^th in the league and Daccord won 27 of his 55 starts. It isn’t a monster total, but it would put him easily in the top 20 for the season in goalie wins, and that would be a big change in his fantasy value. The Kraken have to prove it, but the potential is there. (july30)

7. For today’s Ramblings, we’ll continue with some excerpts from the Guide but move from the articles to the team-by-team outlooks. These projections and breakdowns come from Dobber himself.

Boston Bruins – J.J. Peterka‘s Rebound

Last month on BlueSky, I noted how if you look at Peterka’s fantasy production in his season with the Utah Mammoth, the two reasons for his decline were his overall ice time and power-play usage. Losing over two minutes per game, and nearly half that time coming from the power play, put a lot of downward pressure on his fantasy value.

The projections in the Dobber Guide have Peterka getting to the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career and getting back across the 60-point mark for the second time. Both would be substantial improvements on his 2025-26 season where he posted 25 goals and 47 points, and the big reason why is Peterka getting slotted on the top line and top PP unit with David Pastrnak. It might not push Peterka across the 18-minute mark as he did back in 2024-25, but it’s enough to get well past the 17-minute mark, and that is a level that puts the 30-goal, 63-point projection in range.

My one concern for Peterka was the power play. The Bruins were a top-10 team by goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage last season, and they may not want to rock the boat. However, Peterka is a true dual-threat offensive weapon, and Morgan Geekie can take up the right-handed face-offs left behind by Elias Lindholm if he gets moved to the second PP unit. I am still not entirely convinced that Peterka is a lock on the top PP unit all season, but even if he’s there for 50-60 games, that elevated PP usage combined with a top-line role is enough to see him have a big turnaround. (july31)

8. Chicago Blackhawks – Buy on Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov

Back in November over on Dobber’s YouTube channel, Victor Nuño highlighted Kantserov’s offensive upside, and that was before putting up a 36-goal, 64-point season in 63 KHL games. As Dobber noted in the Guide, which was first covered in the Fantasy Prospects Report, Kantserov’s 36 goals “broke Kirill Kaprizov‘s record for most snipes in the KHL by a U22 player.” Whenever you can break a goal-scoring record held by Kaprizov, you know you’re in good company.

Even with the addition of Patrick Kane, there is a dearth of offensive talent on the wings in Chicago. Kantserov having high offensive upside and then displaying that upside over an 84-game season are two different things, but Dobber’s projection has him for 26 goals and 55 points. That will play in many fantasy formats, and he will not be drafted as a top 200 player.

Not to be outdone, Frondell’s projection in the Fantasy Guide is for 23 goals and 65 points. Whether he plays centre or wing remains to be seen – especially until Connor Bedard returns from his shoulder injury – but between Bedard, Kane, Kantserov, Frank Nazar, and Tyler Bertuzzi, there are legitimate offensive weapons for Frondell to skate with. He played just 12 games last season, but in my limited viewings, Frondell’s patience always came to the forefront, a great sign for such a young player. If he can earn regular top PP minutes, he can absolutely cross the 60-point threshold. (july31)

9. Dallas Stars – Justin Hryckowian is a Potential Lynchpin

Dallas has a handful of superstars at the top of the roster, but the true talent level of this team will be determined by whether their support group can step up, and Hryckowian is a big part of that. Despite just 86 career NHL games, he is an older player, turning 26 years old this coming February. He will be relied upon for secondary scoring, and his 0.81 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season exceeded names like Wyatt Johnston (0.79), Matt Duchene (0.57), and Roope Hintz (0.36). Hryckowian accomplished that by shooting 16.9%, so that’s the concern, but he translated his AHL success to the NHL, and that matters.

What makes Hryckowian notable for fantasy are the peripherals. He skated just 13:18 per game last season but managed 44 blocks, 119 hits, and 43 PIMs. With just 15 minutes a game, he can post 50 blocks, 130 hits, and 50 PIMs. It isn’t hard to see him slot into Mavrik Bourque‘s role, skating between 15-16 minutes per appearance as a staple of the top 6 forward group. His projection in the Dobber Guide is for 13 goals and 37 points, so if he can approach the 15-goal, 40-point marks, with the peripheral coverage he’s already displayed, he is an intriguing name for multi-cat formats. (july31)

10. Los Angeles Kings – The Brandt Clarke Breakout

In a Ramblings last week, I discussed early ADP data among defencemen, and Clarke was among the names listed. The concern I wrote about, and still have, is that the Kings use a five-forward top PP unit. It was something they often used last season, and though Anze Kopitar is now retired, they have a healthy Kevin Fiala, added Mats Zuccarello, and Artemi Panarin is there for a full season. With Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe, and Alex Laferriere, it seemed reasonable they might use five forwards again, even if they have a new Head Coach in Peter Laviolette.

Dobber doesn’t seem as concerned. He has Fiala and Laferriere on the second PP unit with Clarke on the top PP unit as the quarterback. That, combined with Clarke increasing his point-per-game production each season of his career, pushes his projection to 48 points in 83 games, clearing his 2025-26 output by 20%.

As a long-time Clarke booster, this would be great news. Regardless of the power play, I think he clears 20 minutes a game, which is crucial. If he does get that top PP role, he can absolutely be a 50-point defenceman, and considering his shot and block volume, he has the tools to be a great multi-cat blue liner. I have concerns about Clarke and whether I draft him will continue to depend on his ADP, but there are diverging thoughts about what happens here, and that’s both the fun and frustrating part of fantasy hockey. (july31)

11. St. Louis Blues – Final Spot for PP1

The Dobber Guide has Mason McTavish projected for 53 points, slightly exceeding his previous career-best mark of 52 points set back in 2024-25. The reason for that is Dobber has McTavish winning the spot as the fourth forward on the top PP unit, edging competition from Pavel Buchnevich, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Connor McMichael. In short, McTavish should have a top 6 and top PP role, which is the reason for his career-high projection.

This is a situation that looks like it’ll be unsettled all year long. Unless the Blues have a massive PP turnaround – they were 27^th by goals per minute last season – then we probably see a lot of power-play shuffling and the only name that we can etch in stone for top PP time is Robert Thomas. However, like Dobber, I do think that McTavish gets the first crack as the fourth forward, and just getting the first opportunity is important. While McTavish’s defensive issues are well-known, he is a dual-threat option that can help replace the offence lost by the Jordan Kyrou trade, and McTavish is a left-handed centre who can take some of the face-offs not taken by the right-handed Thomas. I am expecting a big rebound from McTavish offensively this season, and Dobber agrees. (july31)

12. Washington Capitals – Keep an Eye on Justin Sourdif

All the additions the Capitals have made in the offseason, and the return of Alex Ovechkin, have taken the headlines, but we can’t forget about the depth they already had. Sourdif was a big part of that depth last season, especially with the injury to Pierre-Luc Dubois. As Dobber notes in the Fantasy Guide, Sourdif had a stretch that included 32 points in 57 games, showing the offensive upside he has with productive wingers on his flanks. While the Caps did add a lot of depth, the additions of Kyrou and Alex Tuch were on the wing, and Boone Jenner is likely stuck in a third- or fourth-line role. The real competition for Sourdif’s third-line centre role will come from Ilya Protas, and Dobber has the younger Protas skating alongside Jenner.

There is a real chance that Protas asserts himself and makes him an undeniable part of the Caps’ middle 6 forward group. With that said, Sourdif was great last year when called upon and a full season makes him a threat for 50 blocks and 100 hits. He has genuine 20-goal, 40-point upside even with secondary PP time, and at 24 years old he’s just entering his prime. Even with all the depth, Sourdif is one injury away from a meaningful top 6 role, and he will still have depth multi-cat value even if he’s stuck on the third line. (july31)

13. One of the areas of the guide that I contributed to was the team-by-team goalie previews, which I have covered in past seasons as well. Although the overall concept of picking the right goalie hasn’t changed over that time, how goalies are viewed on both real-life and fantasy teams has changed at least a bit. One aspect of this is goalie workload, which Stas Pupkov broke down in this week’s Analytics Advantage.

A new formula for success in today’s NHL has teams investing the bare minimum in goalies and moving their chips toward other positions. Just like those who play fantasy hockey, NHL teams are realizing that goalie performance can be volatile from season to season. In addition, a talented goalie can only do so much for a team. If a defense is weak, it will show in the goalie’s numbers.

Here are five potential playoff teams with interesting goalie battles entering the season. These goalies aren’t all bargain basement goalies, but trying to forecast who the starter will be may not be that simple. At least two goalies on each of these teams could hold value this season – perhaps even at the same time. The “How this might play out” analysis is how I personally think the goaltending situation will turn out, which is not necessarily the same as what is mentioned in the Fantasy Guide (Dobber has the final say in what appears there).

CAROLINA

Why this is a debate

Brandon Bussi may have been the goalie of record in Carolina’s Stanley Cup‑clinching win, but context matters for fantasy managers. Pyotr Kochetkov spent most of the season injured, and when you zoom out to the past three years, their numbers are essentially comparable — with a slight statistical edge to Kochetkov (see the Goalie Compare feature on Frozen Tools). More importantly, Kochetkov has logged 40‑plus games in each of the previous two seasons, giving him a normally strong workload profile heading into drafts. Also, did you know Bussi is a year older than Kochetkov?

How this might play out

Bussi will be viewed as the starter by many, but we can’t forget about Kochetkov. This could be a timeshare where both goalies are worth rostering. Bussi faded late in the regular season and was on the bench for the first round of the playoffs until Andersen was injured during the Stanley Cup Final (which seemed inevitable), so he doesn’t have much of a track record of being a full-time NHL starter. 

[Follow the link for more…] (aug1)

14. The Penguins have signed forward Tommy Novak to a three-year extension with a $4.65 million cap hit. This contract is set to begin next season, with Novak’s current contract with a $3.5 million cap hit set to expire at the end of the season.

Novak is now one of only two Penguins to be signed for the next four years (until 2030). The other? Defenseman Kaedan Korczak, who was just acquired from the Golden Knights in late June. With mainly an age 35+ core, the Penguins appear to be on a year-to-year plan that will eventually need to be followed by a full rebuild once the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson either move on or retire.

Novak was the only Penguin to appear in all 82 games in 2025-26, finishing with 16 goals and 42 points. He has now reached 40 points in three of his past four seasons, although his career high is 45 points. His most frequent linemates last season were Malkin and Egor Chinakhov, so he will likely need to be back with them and also receive at least second-unit power-play time to be of interest in fantasy leagues this season. (aug1)

15. The Sharks have signed forward Collin Graf to a three-year extension with a cap hit of $4.25 million. Graf was an unsigned RFA whose entry-level contract had just expired. Graf was originally an undrafted free agent who the Sharks signed following two successful years at Quinnipiac University.

In his first full season with the Sharks, Graf finished with 21 goals and 46 points while often playing on a line with Macklin Celebrini (also recently extended) and Will Smith. Graf could be considered a sleeper in many league formats if he can become a regular linemate of Celebrini’s, but he is now also battling the likes of Ivar Stenberg and Mason Marchment for that honor. (aug1)

16. Fantasy owners who drafted Quinton Byfield back in 2020 are still waiting for his tantalizing potential to be realized. He is a larger-framed player, sitting at 339 career games played, meaning he’s due to hit his breakout threshold right around the time of the NHL and fantasy trade deadlines. If you haven’t traded for him by then, I urge you to make a big push at the deadline.  

Byfield played the first half of this past season mostly stapled to Kevin Fiala prior to Fiala’s season-ending injury at the Olympics. His next two-most frequent linemates this season were Alex Laferriere and… Joel Armia? Despite the lack of help, Byfield still had portions of the season where he played at almost a point-per-game pace with these linemates. Looking ahead to this coming season, with Fiala returning, Adrian Kempe, Artemi Panarin, and Mats Zuccarello all possible wingers for Byfield as the top-line centre, the outlook is quite favourable for an offensive breakout. 

Not only does the departure of Anze Kopitar free up the top wingers for Byfield, but it also opens up the minutes running the top power play unit with those very same high-end wingers. Byfield producing 20 PPPs instead of the 11 he has averaged the last three seasons would immediately bump him up into the 65-point territory. 

Now, you might be expecting the retirement of two-time Selke winner (and multi-time finalist) Kopitar would mean that Byfield would have to shoulder some additional defensive load and see tougher matchups… well, it’s actually the opposite. Last season Byfield was carrying the defensive load against all the top lines, and his possession numbers continued to thrive in spite of it. All the while, Kopitar was seeing heavy offensive zone deployment with the talented wingers. All that offensive time is free now, and it’s not going to be filled by Erik Haula and Scott Laughton. 

Byfield is in line to see better line mates, more power play time, more offensive zone starts, and hit his breakout threshold all in the same season. On top of that, his team’s on-ice shooting percentage at even strength last season was low, meaning he should have perhaps paced for closer to 60 points last year if he had average luck. The breakout train is coming and it’s going to hit fast. (july29)

17. I was also asked about Tyson Foerster, who is set to hit his breakout threshold in five games. Foerster has had some nice progression so far, but his spot in Philadelphia does raise some flags as I noted with Travis Konecny‘s write up on Monday, where the centers are lacking and the wingers are now plentiful. It can make for a tenuous fantasy landscape for a few of those winger options where they might not be prioritized as much as their talent might suggest they should be. With both Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone coming on strong, there is some worry that Foerster may be stuck on the third line which would cap his production and delay any coming breakout. 

A breakout season for Foerster would be something along the lines of 35 goals and 60 points, which should be within reach assuming he can stay healthy and remain in the top six. The new contract extension should ensure that he doesn’t get deemphasized too much. His luck metrics from last season are a little wacky, with his personal and team shooting percentages finishing quite high, but his IPP both at even strength and on the power play were much too low. He seems like a case with fewer layers than Byfield, he was just held back by an injury that broke up last season and caused a bit more of a smaller sample size with the numbers across the board. (july29)

18. I was also asked more broadly about the state of the forward core (wingers more specifically) for the Washington Capitals, and how they are going to be deployed this coming season. 

Let’s break it down into groups. First off, we have the top-six forward core in no particular order: 

Ryan Leonard, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson, Alex Tuch.

These six players should make up the top six for overall ice time on the team, and includes most of their top scoring weapons. There’s a lot of size, and scoring potential here, though no one is a shoe-in for more than a point-per-game season. If all six finished with nearly identical scoring totals between 65 and 70 points next season, it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest. 

Next up we have a group that makes up the roster locks who won’t have any top-line exposure next season, a group we’ll call the non-top-line forwards: 

Aliaksei Protas, Justin Sourdif, Ethen Frank, Boone Jenner.

Protas is a high-level even strength scorer, but never gets any power play time for him to be considered among the first group. He might hit 60 even strength points next season, but without the power play time he’s not a key cog in the offence, and ends up slotted on a third-line that can do just about everything. The other three here make up your bottom-six core, and unless you’re also looking for peripherals of some sort, you’re unlikely to have on your fantasy roster outside of the deepest of leagues. Frank could be slipped to the next group below, but his new contract puts him more in this range than the next. 

Then, we have the fringe roster players, who could battle to slot in anywhere from the second line if they happen to click well and win over the coaches, all the way down to bottom-six in the AHL, because the Capitals’ team depth chart is so packed at the moment: 

Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Beauvillier, Ilya Protas, Josh Dunne, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Andrew Cristall, Terik Parascak.

As you can tell by the numbers game, there are only two spots left after those ten names listed above, which means most of this group is going to form the top-six in Hershey this coming year. Beauvillier, Miroschnichenko, Dunne, and Brodzinski all require waivers to be sent down, so the odds are that at least two of them will make the roster, and the former two on that list would likely be claimed if waived prior to the season. That leaves no room at the start for Ilya Protas, Cristall, Parascak or any of the other young players to make the roster. Good for competition, bad for fantasy. 

Hold on, there’s still one more category… the 40-year-old power play specialist: 

Alex Ovechkin.

At even strength, Ovechkin is not keeping up or providing the value quite like he used to, which makes it much more likely that he is fed only offensive zone starts and all the power play time he can handle, maybe up to 12 or 14 minutes a night, and possibly not on any specific line (with A. Protas taking all the defensive zone starts as his alternating LW option). Ovechkin can still be relevant in fantasy this way, but it likely puts his point totals below those of the top-six linemates that are now above him on the depth chart. The Hit and SOG totals will still be there, but those might also take a hit due to the lower ice time too. (july29)

19. When looking at the remaining UFAs (at time of writing), it seems like the stragglers who last into August haven’t really had a great track record in previous years. A couple of notable UFAs from recent seasons who lasted past the end of July include Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner, Jakub Vrana, Max Pacioretty, Tanner Pearson, and James van Reimsdyk. 

This year, Eeli Tolvanen, Vladimir Tarasenko, Evander Kane, and Michael Bunting are your cream of the crop from the stragglers. Anthony Mantha and Patty Kane were also part of that group until their recent deals. Mantha signed a deal (two years x $4.75M) with New Jersey that was both shorter and had a lower cap hit than the $5-6 Million that most sources had him projected for. Mantha was probably the top target remaining at the time, which likely puts a cap on the amount any of those remaining FAs can ask for. Kane meanwhile signed a monster short term deal to return to the Blackhawks, with the Hawks likely bumping up the contract a ton in order to entice Kane to join them and miss out on his last chances to win a Cup. Kane’s situation with that new AAV isn’t really applicable for any of those remaining UFAs though.  

If any of the remaining are hoping to sign for $4 Million or more per season on a deal with more than two years of term, the ship on that has probably sailed after the Mantha contract, and with the calendar about to flip to August. The likelihood is that these players are probably going to have to sign for third-line money, which right now is around the range of $3 Million per season, and hopefully they can build their value back up on a one-year deal. 

The one thing that differs between this summer and previous years, is that teams now have a lot more cap space still available. Only about 10 teams are currently capped out to the point of being unlikely to be able to fit in one of these UFAs, and still half of those could probably make a deal work anyways with some creative accounting. 

All of them still have something left in the tank, with Tolvanen getting out of the black hole that is Seattle, Tarasenko posting a hot Q4 with 14 points in 19 games, Bunting still puts up 40 points with solid underlying possession numbers, and as for Evander Kane… well his luck metrics really held him back last year, though he is slowing down alongside that. At this point though, it might be closer to training camp that the possible landing spots crystallize. (july29)

20. I thought I would use this opportunity for an exercise in how we look at a player's stats. When looking at a player and their stats, we come in with the pre-conceived notion that the player is good/bad, lucky/unlucky, and when looking at the numbers those tend to tell us exactly what we want to see. Today, I’m going to run through the numbers on three players, showing you how I can make the numbers look good or bad depending which way your pre-conceived notions point you. Then we'll try it without the name of Mystery Player D.

I put it out to my BlueSky followers and a few league-mates asking for some players to use as examples. First up, Matthew Schaefer:

Here’s the positive spin on Schaefer’s numbers…

Schaefer started his career with a bang, putting up 59 points while playing all 82 games, registering 23 goals, 222 SOG, and some other reasonable peripherals en route to the Calder Trophy. He also posted 18 PPPs despite the Isles boasting the third-worst power play conversion rate in the league. His scoring and shot rate remained generally consistent throughout each quarter of the season too, which bodes well for him maintaining or improving on those numbers in future seasons. 

Schaefer’s team shooting percentage at even strength was a little under 10%, which means there is some room for improvement as the team around his rebounds from a bit of bad luck last season. His IPP and secondary assist percentage are fairly close to those of other top-scoring defencemen, and both show that he should be considered in that category, and that he didn’t run into too much luck. Schaefer’s deployment also shows that he wasn’t sheltered, with only 53% of his zone starts in the offensive end, and having faced the second-highest quality of competition of all the Isles’ blueliners. 

With the rookie 60-point season complete, it should be viewed as a stepping stone to an even more productive season in 2026-27. 

Now for the negative spin on Schaefer’s numbers…

Matthew Schaefer is coming off an extraordinary rookie season, and is at risk of a sophomore slump derailing his fantasy value this coming year. After he was eased in with lower minutes in Q1 and Q2, Schaefer’s minutes increased in the second half, and so too did the quality of competition that he was facing. In the second half, Schaefer had fewer shots despite a solid jump in time on ice, and his power play numbers dropped drastically from 13 to five. 

The power play drop is especially concerning, as the Isles’ power play was one of the worst in the league last season, does not look to have much external help this coming season, and saw Schaefer already contributing a larger than expected share of points there due to his PPIPP of 63% (Evan Bouchard, Lane Hutson, and Miro Heiskanen are all 53% or lower in PPIPP). 

Schaefer’s shooting percentage was also a little high, at over 10%, which was the third-highest of the top-10 defencemen in goals last year. To add a possible decline in goals on top of heavier responsibilities, a possible decline in power play production, and with a team in front of him that got worse on paper, the sophomore slump hitting Schaefer shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. 

Conclusion:

Convinced either way yet? That’s the idea of this, is to show that the numbers can try and prove a point in either direction depending on how you spin them. My overall thought is that Schaefer is talented enough that some of the higher percentages may just stay high, and that the extra responsibilities and minutes won’t phase him. The extra attention with the lack of a supporting cast may be tougher to overcome though, so improvement on the 59-point season may be difficult. A repeat in the same range for next year seems likely though.

[Follow the link for more…] (july27)

21. In my Ramblings last week, I discussed some early average draft position (ADP) data from Underdog Fantasy. The run a season-long best ball league every year called the Best Puck Classic, and they start their leagues in July, so it gives us a head start on where some players are being valued. We have already gone over centres, wingers, and defencemen. We will finish up with goalies. Here are some early ADPs that are sticking out to me. 

Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)

The first goalie off the board is Andrei Vasilevskiy, which isn’t much of a surprise. It did surprise me to see Hellebuyck as the second goalie off the board:

The funny thing is that even with a very poor year from Hellebuyck last season, he is still tied for the league lead in wins over the last three years (107, with Vasilevskiy) and leads in save percentage. He was so good for so long that even a bad year still has him as arguably the top goalie in the league, stats-wise, over the last three seasons.

For me, a big part of this is what we think of the blue line after Josh Morrissey. Dylan Samberg grew into an excellent rearguard then had a down season marred by injury. There was a late-season emergence from Elias Salomonsson, and they signed Mario Ferraro in free agency. It wouldn’t take much to convince me that, if healthy, this defence group is much improved from last year, particularly in the non-Morrissey minutes. That matters a lot for Hellebuyck. I still have concerns about their depth scoring, which will hurt his win total, but my guess is we see his save percentage and goals against average rebound in a big way. Does it make him a top-2 goalie? Of that, I am much less sure.

[Follow the link for more…] (july28)

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