We are just a little over two weeks away from training camps beginning and fewer than six weeks from the start of the regular season. Time flies, Labour Day is almost here, so the fantasy hockey preparation is in full swing.

I have begun to assemble my personal projections and want to discuss some early findings. My typical process is to do separate skater projections for even strength, the power play, and the penalty kill excluding rookies, then refine those further, and then add rookies in. These Ramblings will discuss some of these projections, but keep in mind that changes will come, and first-year players are not included.

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Be sure to grab a copy of Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is available now in the Dobber Shop! It has team-by-team outlooks, a customizable draft list including projections, a breakdown of the 84-game schedule, players to target for peripheral stats like hits, blocks, and penalty minutes, sleeper picks in each conference, and a whole lot more. It is also updated until the start of the regular season to reflect new signings, trades, injuries, or anything else. Support what we do year-round and get a headstart on your league mates by ordering the 2026-27 Fantasy Guide in the Dobber Shop!

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For today, the focus will be on changes in goal scoring and shot totals among forwards. We are going to take each player's 84-game pace from 2025-26, compare it to my projected 84-game pace for the 2026-27 campaign, and see who the biggest risers are. This is for even strength only but without empty-net situations. Those will be added eventually.

These are my personal projections using data from Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools. Positional designations are from Yahoo. The red lines on the charts are the average change for each stat among all projected forwards, the yellow dots are forwards in the top 25% for improvement in both goals and shots, and the blue dots are forwards who fall under that threshold in at least one of those categories.

Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens – LW/RW)

The Dobber Guide projects a big uptick for Slafkovský with 80 points in 83 games. My projection has his even-strength production taking a huge upswing, adding 15 EV points in an 84-game season. A big chunk of that comes from a significant increase in goal scoring:

One reason for the big increase is added ice time: my projections have Slafkovský adding about 45 seconds per game in EVTOI. It isn't a massive leap, but any added ice time matters.

The other reason is a big rebound in shooting percentage. From 2023-2025, Slafkovský shot 12.6% at even strength, excluding empty-net situations. That fell hard to 9.1% in 2025-26. Had he shot 12.6%, he would have had an extra four even-strength goals. That difference is a big portion of the uptick. Add an extra 23 shots, and the improvement in shooting percentage and shot volume accounts for most of the goal increase.

There is always a big risk with projecting such an increase, but Slafkovský is now 22 years old with over 300 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) to his credit. A lot of the offensive tracking data shows very well for both him and the Habs, and a rising tide lifts all boats. This increase with some empty-net situations and a locked top PP role makes Slafkovský a 40-goal threat.

Ryan McLeod (Buffalo Sabres – C)

In a serendipitous turn, my newsletter on Tuesday covered how McLeod had signs of improvement in his rush offence. However, the increase came from his playmaking and not his shooting, which is why it's very notable that my projections have McLeod's shot volume rebounding in a huge way this season and, in turn, a big rebound in his goal scoring:

Last year, McLeod's shot rate at even strength fell by nearly 30% compared to the two years prior. Again, the improvements came from his playmaking, so that makes sense, but the projections believe his shot rate will swing back. I will say that when I refine this further, I think the projected shot volume drops, but he will still qualify for the Top 25% group, and that's what's important here.

These increases come at the cost of a few assists, but my guess is that if he adds anywhere from 5-10 goals and 20-40 shots that fantasy managers will be fine with McLeod losing a few helpers. In leagues counting face-off wins, he is a name to circle for some depth production.

Matt Duchene (Dallas Stars – C/RW)

There are a few players projected for huge increases in their shot volume. The first is Duchene, who missed nearly two months last season and saw per-game declines in goals, assists, and shots when compared to the year before. These projections have him rebounding in all three areas, with goals and shots standing out:

From 2023-2025, Duchene averaged about 1.5 even-strength shots per game, and that dropped to just under 1.0 EV shots per game in 2025-26. He is projected to get back to the levels he saw in this prior two seasons, but that is my concern. The introduction of puck-chip tracking has meant that shot rates have been dropping across the league for years now, so regaining what he was 2-3 years ago is a tough bet to make. Also, he turns 36 years old in January, and age-related decline is a factor.

Projecting older players to regain what they were 2-3 years earlier is always a red flag for me. Age decline is factored into projections, but such a big rebound makes Duchene an outlier. I don't mind betting on outliers – that is an important factor in winning fantasy leagues. I do mind betting on old outliers, so despite this projection, I am personally a little lower on him for fantasy purposes. For more on why avoiding veteran players with production spikes the year before is a prudent move, read this analysis from Stas Pupkov's 'Analytics Advantage' column.

Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets – LW/RW)

This one may put a smile on some faces. There are those among us, present company included, who believe that Johnson's 2025-26 season was an aberration and he's in line for a much better campaign. My projections believe the same thing as he's showing an improvement of 6-7 EV goals and an additional 15 shots

In Johnson's first three full(ish) seasons, he shot 15.3% in 189 games. That crashed down to a paltry 5.6% in 2025-26. In other words, a normal shooting percentage would have seen him with triple his EV goal total despite losing nearly 2:30 per game in EVTOI. Had he scored 20 goals in 76 games with 13 minutes a game in ice time, I wonder what the general opinion of him would be.

The crux of all this is that ice time. I am not concerned with his shooting percentage rebounding; I am concerned with him getting back to the 14 minutes per game of EVTOI he had in 2024-25 as opposed to less than 11:30 per game in 2025-26. He won't surpass wingers like Kirill Marchenko and Valeri Nichushkin. If Charlie Coyle's line remains the actual second line, then Johnson might not see a big increase in TOI. He will rebound from 2025-26, but how much he rebounds is in his coach's hands.

Mathew Barzal (New York Islanders – C/RW)

Last September, the Islanders were a team whose top stars I had no problem drafting in the mid-to-late rounds. The problem was I missed on Matthew Schaefer, who was the most important player. Regardless, Barzal posted 0.89 points per game, his second-highest mark of the last eight years, so that worked out reasonably well. There are even more improvements coming, according to my projections, especially where shot volume is concerned:

Across the two years from 2023-2025, Barzal averaged 8.2 EV shots per 60 minutes, a rate that crashed to 6.0 EV shots per 60 minutes in 2025-26. These projections believe he'll approach that earlier shot volume, which is how he's adding 52 of them to his profile.

Unlike Duchene, Barzal is still on the right side of 30 years old (he turned 29 in May). He is still close enough to his prime to make these improvements, but again, in a lower shot environment, there should be some hesitation that he adds over 50 EV shots. All the same, the SOG column should tick up (probably by a large amount) and that makes Barzal a genuine 20-goal, 80-point threat.

Adam Lowry (Winnipeg Jets – C)

There is always a name that sticks out when going through this sort of exercise, and Lowry's name is one of them. He is projected to add nearly six goals and over 20 shots at even strength in 2026-27:

Last season, Lowry shot 6.2% at even strength, nearly half his conversion rate from the prior two seasons (12.2%). Positive regression here means a lot more goals off the bat, and a solid improvement in his shot volume helps.

Digging deeper, one of the big reasons for Lowry's improvement comes from Winnipeg's blue line. Dylan Samberg struggled with injury last season and that made their blue line's non-Josh Morrissey minutes much less productive offensively. Samberg returning to form, and no more Luke Schenn or Logan Stanley to fumble the puck on the third pair, should mean much better puck-moving from the back end. That matters a lot when considering the potential production of depth forwards on any team.

Lowry has never had a 40-point season, and I don't think it happens this year. However, he is capable of 15 goals and 35 points. That isn't a lot, but in multi-cat leagues where he can offer 600 face-off wins, 150 hits, and 60 blocks, that increased production takes him from waiver fodder to a depth option. Anyone else have faith in a rebound year from the Jets?