In Tuesday's Ramblings, I started going over my fantasy hockey projections for the 2026-27 season. Those Ramblings covered some players comparisons that stood out for one reason or another, like Kiefer Sherwood vs. Jesper Bratt, William Eklund vs. Andrei Svechnikov, and Luke Hughes vs. Brandt Clarke. Go check that out to get an overview on comparing players who have different fantasy strengths.

Today, let's go through some more projections but look for some values by ADP. We will use ADP data from Fantrax.

***

Be sure to grab a copy of Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is available now in the Dobber Shop! It has team-by-team outlooks, a customizable draft list including projections, a breakdown of the new schedule, players to target for peripheral stats, sleeper picks in each conference, and a whole lot more. It is also updated until the start of the regular season to reflect new signings, trades, injuries, or anything else. Support what we do year-round and get a headstart on your league mates by ordering the 2026-27 Fantasy Guide in the Dobber Shop!

***

As a quick refresher, my projections are based on value above replacement level at that player's position. 'Replacement level' is simply the approximate value of top waiver-wire options in a 12-team league with 11 forwards and 6 defencemen rostered. These projections are for goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points, and the focus for today will be on forwards; we will get to defencemen tomorrow. All forwards are being lumped into an 'F' position for now – there will be a separation by the forward positions in a future Ramblings. Each player is projected for 84 games.

The 'Fantrax ADP' is the player's rank among forwards on that site, and 'My Rank' is where I have that player situated.

Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes)

Fantrax ADP: 41

My Rank: 24

Fantasy hockey can be a funny game. For a few years, I have generally been avoiding drafting Aho, believing him to be over-valued. It has generally worked well as using this format, his best season was 2023-24, and he was a fringe top 30 fantasy forward that year. That is why it was surprising to see him sneaking inside the top 25 forwards in my ranks, landing in range of Tim Stutzle:

When I dug into why this was the case, there were two reasons: an expected uptick in his shot volume (small, but meaningful), and a projection of 31 power-play points in 84 outings. That might seem like a lot of PP points, but he had 27 in 79 games last season and 32 in 78 games back in 2023-24. It is well within reach, especially with how well the Hurricanes performed after switching to the setup where Jordan Staal was taking faceoffs.

Carolina will be missing Seth Jarvis to start the season, but the top line has remained stellar without him in the past, and it isn't as if Nikolaj Ehlers is some slouch.

The concern is the uptick in shots on goal. It basically comes down to expecting the team to generate a bit more shot volume than they did last season, but if any team can do it, it's Carolina. Even if his shot volume was closer to last season, he'd still be ranked inside my top 35 forwards, and a solid value at his Fantrax ADP.

Vincent Trocheck (Utah Mammoth)

Fantrax ADP: 86

My Rank: 30

In this format last season, Trocheck finished as the 66^th forward overall. That was with 15 games missed, though, and he had three straight seasons prior to that of 82 games played. If we pro-rate his 2025-26 season to a full 82-game schedule, he's roughly a top 30 fantasy forward. As my projections are for a full 84-game schedule, it makes sense that Trocheck lands around the 30^th forward on my board:

Dylan Larkin is being used as a comparison here because they have similar per-game fantasy values in my projections, and Larkin is being drafted four rounds earlier than Trocheck on Fantrax. There are fewer than four weeks until the season starts, and we don't even know where Larkin is playing this season.

What this comes down to is Trocheck's ability to contribute everywhere. Even without heavy shot volume or goal scoring, he's still a positive contributor in those areas, and his ability to provide a lot of hits with a good amount of assists, blocks, and shots is valuable. His fantasy value isn't being dragged down in any single area, so while Larkin is projected for more goals, assists, shots, and power-play points, the fact that he doesn't hit or block very much negates those advantages. We do have to worry about age-related decline for Trocheck because he's 33 years old and plays a physical game, but considering the wide disparity between his ADP on Fantrax (and a similar gap on Yahoo), that seems like a risk worth taking in multi-cat formats.

Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings)

Fantrax ADP: 48

My Rank: 33

Out of the gate, the big concern for Raymond is the future of Larkin. If the latter is traded and no top-end centre is brought back in return, there should be a lot of worry about Raymond's production. It isn't that Larkin is a superstar centre, but the options after him are less-than-desirable, and the Detroit blue line cannot make up for a lack of playmaking from the forwards.

For now, though, I am still assuming Larkin plays the season with Detroit, and that brings Raymond to a very good fantasy projection, and in line with a player going 3-4 rounds earlier:

While neither Raymond nor Nylander bring much for hits and blocks, Nylander is worse, and the difference in those areas alone nearly makes up for the entire discrepancy in value from assists.

The real difference is on the power play. Over the last two years, Raymond's power play points per game is about 10% higher than Nylander's. My projections have Nylander's PP production taking another small step back due to age, and Raymond's taking another small step ahead as he's in the thick of his prime. Those changes, on top of Raymond's general ability to out-produce Nylander on the PP anyway, is why there is such a gap between their expected PPP fantasy value.

Nylander should finish the season with more goals, assists, and shots, but those are only half the categories. For now, it seems Raymond is a solid draft value based on his ADP, but the ongoing Larkin saga makes me very nervous, and it's not hard seeing Raymond finish outside the top 50 fantasy forwards if he's skating with J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp.

Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken)

Fantrax ADP: 160

My Rank: 76

Per Evolving Hockey, over the last three seasons, just three rookie forwards have had a higher points/60 minutes rate at 5-on-5 than what Beniers did as a rookie in 2022-23: Ivan Demidov, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Matvei Michkov. Since posting 57 points in his first full season, Beniers has not posted more than 50 in any campaign and has averaged 44 points every 82 games. The production has been disappointing, which is why his value rank stood out when I was sifting through these projections:

Dylan Strome projecting for similar value is interesting as Strome had 57 points in his first full season, as Beniers did, then had a few down years before posting seasons of 65, 67, 82, and 58 points. Beniers managed 57 points and now has had three down years. Is this the time for the rebound?

It is worrisome playing for Seattle, the 26^th-ranked offence over the last two years. With that said, the projection isn't outlandish: 23 goals, 33 assists, 171 shots, 73 blocks, 40 hits, and 17 power-play points. It is the PP production that stands out because his career-high for a season is 13 PPPs, but Beniers registered a point on just 42.3% of PP goals scored with him on the ice last year. Prior to that, he never had a season below 50% and his three-year average prior to 2025-26 was 60.4%. If he was at 60.4% last season, he would have put up 16 PPPs. In that context, the expected PP production in 2026-27 doesn't seem inappropriate.

Beniers is a good defensive centre which makes him a middle-6 pivot in real life. In fantasy, this feels like a make-or-break season. He turns 24 years old in November and has 331 games under his belt. If he's going to take a modest step forward offensively, now is the time, and my projections believe in him.

Nazem Kadri (Colorado Avalanche)

Fantrax ADP: 117

My Rank: 85

There are few more interesting fantasy names this season than Kadri. He turns 36 years old next month, but has averaged 27 goals, 38 assists, 262 shots, and 22 power-play points every 82 games across the last three seasons. Now he gets a full year with the Avalanche, the league's top scoring team in 2025-26. His projections for 2026-27 compare very well to another elder statesman centre:

Colorado traded away Valeri Nichushkin and brought in Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz isn't necessarily a threat for power-play time, and Kadri skated nearly 80% of the PPTOI for the Avalanche in the postseason, per Frozen Tools. The expectation is that he gets a significant number of games on the top PP unit, and that is helping float his fantasy value, even if Colorado's power play doesn't meaningfully improve from 2025-26.

Malkin's ADP on Fantrax is about three rounds earlier than Kadri, and the small difference in projected fantasy value indicates Kadri is a player to target. There are concerns about usage and role for Kadri, because if he's L3/PP2 rather than L2/PP1, his outlook takes a significant hit. Regardless, he has dual eligibility on Yahoo, so here's a good, veteran centre on a great team who can provide 200-300 face-off wins from the wing with solid across-the-board contributions. He is a solid bet to take.