In a pair of Ramblings last week, the review of my personal fantasy hockey projections began. We started with forwards before moving onto defencemen. Today, we'll be going back to our forwards but looking for deeper values using ADP data from Fantrax.

My projections are made using 'replacement level' value, which is determined to be the approximate fantasy value of the 132^nd forward drafted in a 12-team league. I have yet to include rookies in my projections, but I am assuming at least four rookie forwards – Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, and Anton Frondell – will be drafted in 12-team formats. Let's add a few players that might be surprises, round up, and say we're looking at forwards whose Fantrax ADP is outside the top 140 forwards.

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Data for my projections are from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools. The projections are using 'z-score' for evaluations, which is simply how far above or below a player's fantasy value is compared to the 'replacement level' value. The fantasy categories are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points.

In the following graphs, the red line for ADP is the cutoff for the top 250 overall by ADP, which includes the top 140 forwards, and the red line for z-score is zero. Anyone to the right of the ADP line and above the Zscore line is a good late draft value.

Shane Pinto (Ottawa Senators)

My Rank: 94

Fantrax Rank: 148

It seems simple enough, but ice time is a major component of fantasy value. Players who don't get very much won't produce very much, outside of the guys that play 12 minutes a night but put up 200 hits. For point production, guys skating 12 minutes a night just aren't relevant outside the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Last year, Pinto skated 14:38 per game at even strength, had a little under 2 minutes per game in PPTOI, and a little over 2 minutes per game in PKTOI. There isn't reason to think he'll lose any significant ice time in 2026-27, so skating 18-19 minutes a game is valuable in and of itself, and makes Pinto one of the better draft values:

A key factor in Pinto's fantasy value is that he has positive contributions in five of the six categories, and the one with a negative contribution (assists) isn't a huge drag. In the right role, Pinto can be a 30-goal, 65-point player, and that would make him a draft-value monster. Even in his current role, he provides good value.

Pierre-Luc Dubois (Washington Capitals)

My Rank: 96

Fantrax Rank: 145

This one kind of surprised me because I am not particularly high on Dubois for fantasy purposes, but my projections are relatively high on a few Washington forwards, and considering the additions they made in the offseason, that makes sense. Regardless of what's going on, Dubois looks like one of the better draft values of the season:

What is curious here is my projections aren't overly confident in Dubois racking up power-play points. My projections right now are about 11 PPPs in 84 games which is a modest drop from the ~15 power-play points he's averaged per 84 games in a Capitals uniform. The expectation is he'll spend much of the season on the second PP unit, and that's not good for him.

It also makes Dubois similar to Pinto: my projections assume PLD will spend most of the season on L2/PP2, but that role makes him a good draft value. What if he gets more EVTOI than expected, or spends the season on PP1? Then he goes from a good draft value to a great one. No, I am not particularly high on PLD as a fantasy option, but a wise man once said, 'Everyone Has A Price', and the price on PLD is too cheap for what he's expected to bring, and particularly for what he can bring if his role improves.  

Vasily Podkolzin (Edmonton Oilers)

My Rank: 111

Fantrax Rank: 151

There aren't many players who've earned the trust of the coaching staff and remained a winger for Leon Draisaitl, and certainly not in recent seasons. That has been the case for Podkolzin, and he had career-bests in goals (19), assists (18), shots (139), and hits (242) in 2025-26. For a guy who gets so much time with an elite centre, it's a small wonder he's on our list:

Because the season was a noticeable departure compared to what he had done basically since his rookie year, my projections pull back a bit on what he did last year, and land around 15 goals, 19 assists, and 130 shots. However, with all the hits he can rack up while adding in a solid number of blocks, that is more than enough production to accentuate his high-end hit total.

Podkolzin is a category-specific player. If your league doesn't count hits, or you have already drafted a handful of guys who can bring a lot of hits, then his value drops significantly. There is also the issue of the Oilers having a new coach in Mike Babcock. Podkolzin will have to earn his trust, but as a physical player who can chip in some goals, it seems like he should fit in well with his new bench boss. In 12-team leagues, he's a fine option to grab at the end of your draft.

Jack McBain (Utah Mammoth)

My Rank: 143

Fantrax Rank: 164

McBain is kind of Podkolzin-lite; what if instead of skating on a second line with Leon Draisaitl, Podkolzin were skating on a third line with Barrett Hayton? It would probably look like McBain, who had 25 points, 106 shots, and 271 hits in 75 games last season. His outlook for the 2026-27 campaign isn't tremendously rosy, but he did just sneak over the cutoff line for positive fantasy value:

The concern for McBain is that there is a lot of competition for a third-line role. The Mammoth have eight forwards who are locked into top 9 positions, and that leaves guys like McBain, Michael Carcone, Kailer Yamamoto, and Daniil But fighting for that last spot. Once injuries hit, which they do for almost every team, that concern will be alleviated, but there's no guarantee McBain will have a top 9 role as Podkolzin will (or as much of a guarantee as hockey can offer). It does make him a bigger risk.

I will be honest and say two things here. First, McBain presents as a solid draft value right now based on the presumption he'll spend over half the season getting third-line minutes. Second, though, is the potential for him to spend over half the season on the fourth line, which would negate his fantasy value entirely, so I'm wary about targeting him in drafts at his ADP. It's probably better to just wait for someone like A.J. Greer.  

Ryan Poehling (Anaheim Ducks)

My Rank: 101

Fantrax Rank: 208

When going through the projections, I saw Poehling's name so much higher than where I was expecting and basically had this reaction:

Digging into why that was the case, there are two reasons.

The first reason is ice time. Last year, Mason McTavish's role diminished as the season wore on. In response, Poehling's role grew – he averaged 13:21 per game through the end of December and then 16:25 per game from that point onward. There is a significant difference between skating 13-14 minutes a game and 16-17 minutes a game, and with McTavish gone and no real replacement brought in, the expectation is that Poehling will be around 16 minutes again.

The second reason is his block rate. Across the last three seasons, Poehling is second among all forwards in blocks per 60 minutes. In an 84-game season, he can cross the 100-block plateau, which provides him with a massive edge over most forwards in that area, and makes him a good draft value:

As with Podkolzin and McBain, Poehling is a category-dependent fantasy option. In leagues without blocks, or on rosters that are already block-heavy, his value is marginal. However, he can very well post a 15-goal, 25-assist, 100-block season and that is solid production to support his excellent block value. For fantasy managers needing blocks at the end of their drafts, Poehling is a forward to circle.

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I want to quickly touch on a few deeper options who also stood out but I didn't feel it was necessary to have a lengthy explanation.

Alex Wennberg (San Jose Sharks)

In 2025-26, Wennberg had career-best marks in goals (18), assists (37), and blocks (93) with his highest PP point total (15) in nine years. He doesn't hit or shoot much, and that hurts his overall value, but he had solid production with a lot of blocks. My worry is that he got a massive amount of ice time and if Michael Misa takes a step forward, that ice time will decline. Wennberg's value is fine; I just don't think he'll repeat his 2025-26 output.

Morgan Frost (Calgary Flames)

It was interesting to see Frost's name as a positive fantasy value just because of the team he plays for. However, he added about a minute per game of ice time after Nazem Kadri's trade, and he did have 22 goals, 21 assists, and 16 power-play points last season. Calgary may not be very good, but someone has to be the second-line centre, and someone has to skate on the power play. Again, minutes and role are important, regardless of the franchise, and Frost has both.

Fraser Minten (Boston Bruins)

Tracking data from All Three Zones shows Minten with an excellent rate of carried zone entries, which means when he had the puck on his stick in the neutral zone, he often got the puck into the offensive zone with control. However, he wasn't the one to carry the puck very often, so if that improves, so should his point total. My projections have him pushing for 45 points with nearly two hits per game, and that makes him a deep target for banger leagues.