In a pair of Ramblings this week, I started reviewing my fantasy hockey projections for the 2026-27 season. On Tuesday, we covered how first-round picks are valued, and how to evaluate different players who contribute well to different categories. Yesterday, we dug into forwards providing solid draft values per ADP data from Fantrax. Today, we'll look at more ADP values but this time switching our focus to defencemen.

As a reminder, all players are compared to a 'replacement level' option at their position, which is the estimated value of each fantasy category for the 55^th-65^th fantasy blue liner in a 12-team league. Our categories are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points.

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Be sure to grab a copy of Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is available now in the Dobber Shop! It has team-by-team outlooks, a customizable draft list including projections, a breakdown of the new schedule, players to target for peripheral stats, sleeper picks in each conference, and a whole lot more. It is also updated until the start of the regular season to reflect new signings, trades, injuries, or anything else. Support what we do year-round and get a headstart on your league mates by ordering the 2026-27 Fantasy Guide in the Dobber Shop!

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All players are projected for 84 games played, so there will be a natural correction for those we know are entering the season injured. Let's get to it.

Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth)

Fantrax Rank: 19

My Rank: 11

In this kind of format last season, Sergachev wound up as the 8^th overall defenceman. In my projections, he's listed as the 11^th overall defenceman, though it should be mentioned there's a noticeable gap between him and the guy in 10^th place, Adam Fox:

The per-game fantasy value gap is about 11%, which is larger than my gap between the 7^th overall blue liner and Fox. So, yes, Sergachev is listed as a top 12 defenceman in a 12-team league, and is passable as a fantasy manager's top rearguard, but there is a noticeable difference between him and a top 10 option, and a substantial one between Sergachev and the top 5 (nearly 45%).

A big reason for Sergachev's fantasy value stabilizing is expecting an improvement on his hit total compared to what he managed in 2025-26. Back in May, I wrote how peripheral rates have been declining for defencemen, but Sergachev's drop in hits per 60 minutes in 2025-26 was sizeable, dropping 36% against a league average of 9%. A rebound in that hit rate, combined with some marginal improvements in his shots and blocks, should help balance any declines elsewhere – I do have him projected for three fewer points.  

It should be noted how consistent Sergachev has been lately. In the last three seasons where he's played at least 70 games, his 84-game pace has been between 58 and 68 points in each of them. Also, other than that injured 2023-24 campaign, he has not missed more than five games in any of his last six seasons. Not only is he projecting well, but he stays on the ice and always produces, too.  

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)

Fantrax Rank: 18

My Rank: 12

Nearly one year ago to the day, I wrote about how McAvoy was a very undervalued draft option, and he responded by turning in a career year with 61 points in just 69 games. There was potential for 70 points had he stayed healthy. It makes sense that I have him ranked highly again this year as he rounds out my top 12, and is in line with a three-time Norris Trophy winner:

It is a wonder where McAvoy would rank if his hit volume wasn't crashing. Again, it's something that has been declining for several years among blue liners, but the league average drop on a 60-minute basis compared to the 2023-24 season is about 27%; McAvoy's decline in that time is 47%. If he was closer to that league average, he'd be pushing to be a top 10 fantasy defenceman.

The issue with McAvoy is health. Getting 61 points last season was great, and at least he was healthy for fantasy playoffs, but he's now appeared in seven 82-game seasons (excluding 2019-20 and the 2021 Bubble season), and he's played at least 70 games just twice. If he's going to miss nearly 20% of games, it's hard to draft him as a top 12 defenceman. Then again, if he finally plays 80 games, he could legitimately be a top 5 defenceman. How much risk a fantasy manager is willing to take is up to the individual.  

Filip Hronek (Vancouver Canucks)

Fantrax Rank: 36

My Rank: 22

We have finally reached the first projection that really concerns me. In this format last season, Hronek finished as the 13^th overall blue liner. A huge reason why is that he posted 33 points in 51 games after the Quinn Hughes trade, and 16 of those 33 points were on the power play. My projections have him clearing the 40-point mark again, but what makes him valuable is across-the-board production:

Other than a small ding for blocks, there is positive value everywhere, and that's assuming Zeev Buium eats into his top power play time, too. Being able to contribute in five of six categories, and the sixth not being that big of a negative, is what makes him valuable. The concern comes from the power play, because if Buium has the top role all season, and we adjust Hronek's expected PP output to drop by half, his overall fantasy value is cut by one-third. It takes him from inside the top 25 to outside the top 30 and more in line with his Fantrax Rank.

What really makes valuable is his hit rate. Despite a significant decline in hits per 60 minutes for defencemen across the league, Hronek's has improved substantially – the league is down 27% over the last two years, and Hronek is up 20% in that same timeframe. Despite not providing a huge hit total (133 in 82 games last year), the fact that it's a good level and keeps rising as the league goes in the other direction is crucial for his value.

Vancouver won't be a good team this year, but Hronek is undervalued.

Thomas Chabot (Ottawa Senators)

Fantrax Rank: 39

My Rank: 23

This stands out to me because it's not often a defenceman who isn't a peripheral monster and doesn't have a top PP role is projected near-or-inside the top 25. However, Chabot has averaged fewer than 10 PPPs per season over the last three years, and has still averaged 11 goals, 35 assists, 173 shots, and 150 blocks per 82 games in that span. In a funny turn of events, his overall fantasy projection is in line with a guy who is set to regain his top PP role:

The obvious problem for Shea Theodore is the hits. Even with a new top PP role, nearly 60% of his edge in PP production over Chabot is negated by a near-invisible hit rate. Theodore was credited with two (2!) hits in 70 games last season – that is not a typo and feels impossible. You would think he'd accidentally run into someone a few times.

Anyway, this is about Chabot, and with good across-the-board value less a small subtraction from hits, it seems like he's primed for a good season. Like McAvoy, though, he has to stay healthy as Chabot has played at least 70 games just once in the last five seasons, and fewer than 60 games three times.

Jamie Drysdale (Philadelphia Flyers)

Fantrax Rank: 48

My Rank: 39

Another player credited with very few hits is Drysdale, who has just 34 in 148 games over the last two years. It is a problem for his fantasy value as it is a huge drag on what he brings elsewhere. Outside of that, my expectation is he has the lion's share of top power-play time again, and it's adding a handful of PP points to his output, and giving him reasonable fantasy value:

Of course, this all comes down to that power-play output. That he's such a huge drag on hits, and doesn't bring a lot for shots and blocks, means Drysdale's value comes down to point production. If he's taken off the top power play early in the season, or someone like Travis Sanheim straight up takes it from him in training camp, then Drysdale's fantasy value gets nuked into the dirt. He took steps forward last season in some key areas used for my evaluations, and that's a factor here, too. My expectation isn't that the Flyers have a very good power play – it's been quite some time since that's happened – but if Drysdale is getting top PP time, he can be a top 40 fantasy blue liner.

Artyom Levshunov (Chicago Blackhawks)

Fantrax Rank: 73

My Rank: 48

Getting down to the near-replacement players, I did want to mention Levshunov. At this point of fantasy drafts, filling out peripheral categories may be necessary, and Levshunov is projected for nearly 120 hits, and that is important in an NHL environment where hits among blue liners are dropping:

In his first full season, Levshunov had 75 blocks and 98 hits in 68 games. As a sophomore, my projections are over 90 blocks and 120 hits, and that combination gives him solid peripheral production. Add a reasonable amount of points with some of that coming from the power play, and Levshunov has the tools to be a top 50 fantasy defenceman. At that level, he might bob between rosters and the waiver wire, but in a 12-team league, I would have no issue with taking him as my fifth or sixth defenceman.