The Metropolitan Division is home to the Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes who led the Eastern Conference with 113 points. Other than Carolina, no one else finished above 98 points. The pair of Pennsylvania teams out played their expectations, claiming the remaining playoff spots. Making projections difficult is that the 21 points separating 2^nd place from 8^th place in the Metropolitan was the tightest amongst all four divisions. Nonetheless, here is a stab at the final standings, it is going to be extremely close again this year. The bottom half of the division is unveiled here in Part One.

8 – New York Islanders

Matthew Schaefer jumped onto the scene with 59 points in his rookie season. Both his goals and assists may decrease as his 23 goals were scored on 10.4% of his shots, and more than half of his assists were secondary (52.8%). The well-disciplined Islanders were third last (47.2%) in share of penalties taken. Schaefer himself contributed significantly leading the East in PIMs drawn (76). Schaefer led the league in having the most of his own shots blocked (221) and was also the league leader in most hits received (231) per Natural Stat Trick. He is a boon in bangers league providing hits, PIM, and blocked shots in abundance for the OTHER team.

Defensively, the Islanders demonstrated poor metrics. They gave up the most high danger shots against (331) and were hemmed in their own zone at 5v5 spending 42.5% of their time in the defensive zone (third worst in the NHL). Pete DeBoer should help curtail the extent of these defensive lapses. The Islanders were saved by exceptional goaltending (-40.12 goals against above expected) and by great penalty killing (41 goals allowed, fourth least in the NHL). The Islanders benefited from the fourth best save percentage on the penalty kill (0.880%), and we know there is a lot of random variance in this statistic. It will regress to league average. The offense stumbled by finishing with the third lowest goals for above expected in the league (-27.5) and fifth lowest shooting percentage (9.9%). The power play was 'Philly-esque', 30^th in the league this year (16.5%), and 31^st the year before (12.6%).

Anders Lee, who led the league in rebounds created (54), is gone to Utah. Jean-Gabriel Pageau had an elevated 5v5 shooting percentage (19%), while playing his lowest average ice time (15:40) in the last 11 seasons. Even in the deepest of leagues, he is waiver worthy. Whereas before he would get some PP2 time, he has been essentially been removed entirely, receiving only 7.6% of power play time. Matias Maccelli, Brayden Schenn, Calum Ritchie, Emil Heineman, and Kyle Palmieri, whose last point in the NHL was an assist as he skated off after tearing his ACL, are all ahead of Pageau for offensive opportunities.

This year, the goals for will rise, but not enough to compensate for the rise in goals against. Ilya Sorokin is always on the positive side of the ledger in GSAx (+2.5, +12.8, +38.7, +1.4, +17.5, +25.3 over the last six years), but it will be hard to maintain the third best GSAx from last year (only Logan Thomson and Jeremy Swayman were better than Sorokin's +25.3). DeBoer usually does well when taking over as coach, but not this year; there just is not enough talent here yet.

7 – New York Rangers

Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck are gone. Pavel Dorofeyev, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, and Marcus Pettersson are in. That adds up to a net negative. With the Vancouver Canucks last year, Pettersson had the worst on ice goal differential (-58) in the league. Sean Durzi was fifth worst on Utah at -14. Trocheck's departure will lead to a drop in the Rangers' league leading 54.52% faceoff win percentage.

New York's offense was buzzing with Adam Fox on the ice. The offensive defenseman led the league in relative expected goals percentage (+22.5%) which is the on-ice expected goals percentage minus the off-ice expected goals percentage. Two years ago, the power play stunk, ranking 28^th (17.6%). Last year, it continued its anemic play for the first 15-ish game but then started scoring at elite levels recovering all the way up to fifth in the league (24.7%). With Alexis Lafreniere and Dorofeyev replacing Panarin and Trocheck, it remains to be seen if PP1 can keep up the strong power play percentage. The four forwards on that first power play unit are the only Rangers forwards NOT in the last year of their contract.

To be successful, the Rangers need to be more disciplined and take more shots. They had the highest share of penalties taken 53.16% in the league, and the second fewest shots per game (28.5). Often chasing the play, the Rangers led the league in hits (2112), with Will Cuylle contributing 302. The Rangers will need Igor Shesterkin to continue his robust play to prevent them from finishing last in the Metropolitan.

6 – Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins scored an impressive 228 goals at even strength, only the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning had more. The team shooting percentage was fourth best in the league (12.38%) leading to the league's third highest +17.61 goals for above expected. Those stats indicate an upcoming regression in the offense. The Penguins were the sixth most efficient team at killing penalties (81.4%) but stumbled in shootouts going 3-10. The goalies 0.457% save percentage in shootouts was the third worst in the league.

Kris Letang only had three goals in a season where his shooting percentage dropped to 2.9% (career 5.8%). He could be in line for more points if Erik Karlsson is traded during the season. Additionally, the top power play is the oldest in the league, and injuries are expected. The top candidates in line for a promotion to the top unit are Egor Chinakhov and Andrei Kuzmenko. Chinakhov concluded the season with 32 points in his last 33 games. He notched nine points in the ten games where he got over 50% of the team's power play time. If we remove Carolina players, who overpopulate this statistic, Ville Koivunen was 14th in the league in 5v5 shot attempt percentage (Corsi) at 57%. GM Kyle Dubas bet on him with an eight-year contract, but his breakout may only come after the aging veterans are gone.

In 2026-27, the Penguins are on the outside looking in at the trade deadline, meaning UFA's Karlsson, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Samuel Girard, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Justin Brazeau are all in play on the trade market. The first four have some sort of trade protection clause, which could limit the destination, thereby decreasing the expected return. Arturs Silovs (RFA) could also be available by then to make space for the Sergei Murashov promotion.

5 – Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers have increased their goals scored for the five consecutive seasons (211, 222, 235, 238, 250), but the 250 last year was still fifth worst in the East. Their success came from the crease, where Dan Vladar made a top 10 appearance in GSAx (+13.8). How has the rest of his career been? Not good: +0.9, -12.5, -8.4, -3.8, -1.9. Philadelphia had a hard time winning the shot battle finishing 25^th in Corsi or shot attempt percentage (48.25%). They were able to pad some points by going 10-4 in the shootout. The power play only contributed 37 goals, which was tied for last in the league. Eventually, the power play has to improve, they finished last in the league again (fourth time in the last five years) converting on just 15.7% of their opportunities. Jamie Drysdale has been one of the least productive power play defensemen, accumulating only nine points despite averaging 2:19 on the power play. Only Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny received over 50% power play time, as players were swapped in and out, and neither unit was given a significant bulk of time on the man advantage.

Rick Tocchet's lack of trust in Matvei Michkov's defensive play is preventing an offensive breakout for the talented Russian. In a small sample size, Porter Martone brought 3.56 shots/game, 1.78/game, and 1.11 points/game without any secondary assists. After a brief bob of air in the green (+7 goal differential), the Flyers will go back underwater and resume their red goal differential (-48, -26, -55, -87 in the previous four seasons).

The top four teams in the Metropolitan will be revealed in next week's Eastern Edge.

Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck and Natural Stat Trick. Zone time percentage courtesy of NHL EDGE stats.

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