Capped: Breaking Down the Marchenko/Knies Trade for Salary Cap Leagues

Andrew Santillo

2026-10-01

Hello everyone and Happy New Year's! The NHL season is finally back but this crazy offseason went out with one last bang as we had a major trade right before Opening Night.

The Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Kirill Marchenko, Elvis Merzlikins (18% salary retention) and Miles Wood from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, Steven Lorentz and a conditional 2027 2nd round pick

Kirill Marchenko (26, LW/RW) signs a 6-year contract with Toronto at a $12.5 AAV ($75M total)

UFA in 2033 (Age 33)

Alright, there’s a lot to unpack here, but let’s simplify things.

At its core, this trade is Marchenko for Knies and a second-round pick. The other pieces carry some fringe fantasy implications, but the story revolves around Marchenko, Knies, and a draft pick that could ultimately hold meaningful value. For context, I’m not going to speculate about who wanted out or whether either side forced the issue, despite what your league group chat is probably debating right now. We can only evaluate the move based on what’s been reported publicly.

Marchenko had an interesting response during media day, and if what Sportsnet’s said is true, Toronto had been exploring the possibility of moving Matthew Knies for months, with rumors dating back to last March. Also, don’t worry, I won’t be comparing Marchenko to a forward who now plays for the Vegas Golden Knights. Yep, you guessed it, it's Colton Sissons!


Let's start with Marchenko who, if you are rostering him in fantasy, you are smiling as this deal came across your feed. If you want to trade for a good player, you must give up something good in return, and that's just what happened here as Marchenko is a fantastic fantasy forward. The dual eligibility is so valuable, especially in smaller leagues, and while he goes to a Toronto club that I believe will have a top five power play prior to making this trade. Now, add the forward who led Blue Jackets last season, and that was a power play with Zach Werenski quarterbacking.

I think Marchenko will fit seamlessly alongside Auston Matthews at even strength. In Columbus, he spent much of his time playing with Adam Fantilli, who shares some similarities with Matthews. Both possess elite shots, protect the puck well, and create offense through puck possession. Those traits complement Marchenko’s game nicely. I'd say you'll see more aggressiveness in Marchenko's game but for fantasy I won't begrudge it.

The salary jumps from $3.9M to $12.5M and while that's significant, the cap is trending upward to a point where Marchenko will be a keeper throughout the duration of this contract. We're at a point in salary leagues to where even the clubs at the bottom will likely not have much wiggle room for salary relief, and I'd just rather have a winger who is going to easily net me 60-points than the usual suspects of $4-$6M defensemen that probably populate your leagues waiver wire currently.

As for Knies, the trade rumors are finally put to rest. Rest easy, people who believed the Knies to the Blackhawks/Canadiens/Sharks/Hurricanes rumours, we have the watch. The good news is there's still plenty of fantasy upside in Columbus.

Two seasons ago, Knies finished the season with 59 points with last year finishing above and beyond that mark at 66 points, with relatively the same amount of power play production. What changed? His secondary assists went from 12/29 to 21/43, and his penalty minutes dropped down from 43 to 29.

We can take a step back and say that production will drop on a power play in Columbus that doesn't have the fire power that Toronto does, but I don't mind the fit. As we mentioned, Fantilli and Matthews play similar styles, and he could find himself on a top line stapled to Zach Werenski on the blue line each time he hops over the boards. Knies is also just 23 years old and carries an excellent AAV, making him a great player to roster in dynasty and salary-cap leagues.

There have been concerns about the physical nature of his game and the potential injury risks that come with it. However, despite those concerns, he has never missed more than four games in a season. While there were frequent reports of him playing through injuries, he remained in the lineup and continued to flash impressive playmaking ability when healthy.

The biggest question for fantasy managers will be his role on the Columbus power play. Depending on how he’s deployed, it’s entirely possible that his point production remains relatively unchanged despite the move away from Toronto.


For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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