Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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1. A little unexpected Friday afternoon Friedge bomb: According to Elliotte Friedman, Nikita Kucherov has informed the Tampa Bay Lightning that he won’t re-sign with the team and has also asked to be traded. In response, the Lightning have released a statement denying that they plan to trade Kucherov, who is expected to continue playing as normal. More to come on this story, I’m sure.

Kucherov is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $9.5 million, an amount that could double with his next contract. The assumption until now has been that he and the Lightning would find a way to agree to an extension. However, it is believed that Kucherov and the Lightning are far apart in negotiations, which has played a major part in Kucherov’s desire to be moved. The Bolts are in a tight cap situation, which may have limited what they can offer Kucherov. (oct31)

2. Although he might be on the back half of his career at 33 years of age, Kucherov is one of a small subset of players to regularly reach the 100-point mark. Since the 2022-23 season, only Connor McDavid has more points than Kucherov (523 PTS in 329 GP). Kucherov has 15 points in 12 games this season, so he should drastically improve any team he is traded to.

A Kucherov trade will have sizable fantasy implications, and it could even happen sometime this season. It won’t be the first major trade of the season, as the player empowerment era is resulting in numerous star players calling for new destinations. Following the Connor Hellebuyck blockbuster, Dylan Larkin is waiting at home for a deal that could drop any day now. Then there’s Quinn Hughes – does anyone know what is happening with him? Fascinating times. (oct31)

3. Jack Hughes and Arseny Gritsyuk each scored two goals in the New Jersey Devils’ 5-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights Friday. The two linemates combined for 15 shots and a plus-7 in this game: seven shots and plus-4 for Hughes, and eight shots and plus-3 for Gritsyuk. Hughes is scoring at over a point per game and has four goals and seven points in his last five games, while Gritsyuk has eight goals and 12 points over his last 11 games. 

We know the deal with Hughes, who is rostered everywhere and could be the MVP of many fantasy teams if he can go an entire season without getting injured. Let’s turn our attention to Gritsyuk, whose value has spiked with his addition to the Hughes-Jesper Bratt line. Gritsyuk (33% Yahoo/59% Fantrax) is worth adding where available, but most of his advanced stats show higher-than-normal numbers that could drop, particularly a 22.9 SH%, a 9.7 5-on-5 SH%, and 3.3 PTS/60. He should continue to produce on the Devils’ top line, but perhaps not quite at this early-season pace. (oct31)

By the way, Connor Hellebuyck has now earned wins and quality starts in both of his games with the Devils. So far, so good with his new team. (oct31)

4. Something you didn’t expect to see, even a month into the season, as we entered Saturday action: only Evan Bouchard and Quinn Hughes had more points among defensemen than Seth Jones. The Panthers blueliner has piled up 17 of his 18 points over his last nine games. He also has back-to-back three-point games, which includes a goal and two assists on Friday. Jones has not reached the 40-point mark in any of his previous four seasons and he is nearly halfway there already! 

Before jumping to the conclusion that Jones is a sell high, keep in mind that 11 of his 18 points have been on the power play, which was leading all defensemen. The Panthers’ power play is currently in the top half of the league and could become even stronger once Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand return. Injuries are more likely to slow Jones, who has become a Band-Aid Boy because he has missed at least 10 games in each of his past four seasons. (oct31)

5. The Calgary Flames were an easy lineup to overlook entering the season, but they are providing fantasy teams with several solid options (at time of writing, before yesterday's matchup in Colorado). That starts with Matt Coronato, who contributed a career-high four points (1 G, 3 A) in the Flames’ 6-2 win over the Seattle Kraken. Coronato is now above the point-per-game mark for the season (14 PTS in 13 GP), including multiple points in three of his last four games. Coronato is tied for the Flames’ team lead in points, receives top power-play time, and is rostered in just 17% of Yahoo leagues.

The player that Coronato is tied for the team lead with is Joel Farabee, who has been on fire over the past two weeks with 11 points in his last seven games. Farabee scored a goal and added an assist on Friday. I took my own advice from last Saturday and added Farabee in a Fantrax league, and that recommendation still holds. Over the past week, Farabee’s ownership has skyrocketed from 4% Yahoo/16% Fantrax to 38% Yahoo/51% Fantrax, so your window of opportunity may have just shut.

Matvei Gridin scored a power-play goal and added an assist, giving him 10 points in 13 games. A 2024 first-round pick, Gridin is also on the Flames’ top power play and is averaging over two shots per game. He is also worth considering in leagues where he is available (13% Yahoo/51% Fantrax), although you should prioritize Coronato and Farabee in single-season leagues. (oct31)

6. With the red hot and always entertaining Devin Cooley (lower body) now on IR, Dustin Wolf received Saturday his first start since October 15. Wolf was up to the task, making 20 saves in just his second win of the season. The Flames have won five of their last six games, which should make Wolf a safer start for now. However, the Flames also have a game tonight (Saturday) in Colorado, which might be one to stay away from whether it is Wolf or Arsenii Sergeev between the pipes. (oct31)

7. One of the reasons that my deepest keeper team has improved this season is the emergence of Berkly Catton. With a power-play assist on Friday, second-year player Catton now has a six-game point streak and is up to 11 points in 14 games. Catton is already just six points shy of his total all of his last season (17 PTS in 66 GP), also seeing his icetime increased by two minutes per game while being moved into the mix of players that timeshare power-play minutes in Seattle (eight players range between 46%-52% of the Kraken’s available power-play minutes).

Despite the strong start, Catton may be a candidate for regression. He is averaging under two shots per game while holding both a shooting percentage and 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 16%. He will also need to rely on once-pedigreed linemates Kaapo Kakko and Shane Wright for continued success. (oct31)

8. We got a bit of movement in the Dylan Larkin saga as he was held out of the lineup on Thursday night to protect his health in anticipation of a trade, per Elliotte Friedman. It isn’t to say that a trade is imminent, but Larkin has played his last game as a Red Wing until a trade is made. Now might be a good time to check for Emmitt Finnie on the waiver wire because he’s going to get a lot of ice time and prime role moving forward – he was on the top PP unit in place of Larkin on Thursday night. The Red Wings won their first game of the unofficial post-Larkin era by defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 4-1. (oct30)

9. The Florida Panthers gave an update on forwards Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand: 

@GeorgeRichards: Paul Maurice: Sasha Barkov and Brad Marchand started skating yesterday. Marchand 3 weeks out, Barkov 4.

Anywhere from 3-4 weeks would put either (or both) back close to American Thanksgiving, which is on November 26^th. Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe fantasy managers have about a month left of the roles those players are currently enjoying. (oct30)

10. Some updates on the Minnesota Wild blue line, starting with Jared Spurgeon: 

@RussoHockey: Spurgeon is week to week right now. 

That kind of designation leaves his return open-ended, which is relevant to our second note, this one on Brock Faber: 

@RussoHockey: Brock Faber's return to play protocol has been cleared. No timetable yet, but he can start skating in a few days.

There is no clear timeline for Faber, so we’ll see him when we see him, but that he’s been cleared at all considering that awful skull fracture injury is just good news from a health standpoint. We will see when it leads to game action, but a significant and positive step. (oct30)

11. The Toronto Maple Leafs have listed winger Kirill Marchenko as week-to-week: 

@koshtorontosun:
Injury updates from the Leafs:
Marchenko — lower body, week-to-week
Joshua — recalled from conditioning loan
Blankenburg — upper body, week-to-week
Tanev — upper body, day-to-day
Tavares — lower body, week-to-week
Rifai — lower body, week-to-week 

That kind of designation is never a good sign, so hopefully this is on the short end and ‘week-to-week’ doesn’t turn into ‘month-to-month’. 

On a related Leafs note: After starting the season with zero points in 11 games, Gavin McKenna  had 11 points in his last 12 outings entering Saturday action, with five of those points coming on the man advantage.  (oct29)

12. I thought at this point now that we’re a month into the season, I would take a quick look at my fantasy teams and whether to be worried, be patient, or to start making some tweaks – all with the purpose of allowing you to borrow the lens after and better evaluate your own standing at this point in time. 

League #1: PQMC
12-team H2H-categories league, partial keeper
Current Rank (as of Wednesday): 6th

I have been in this league long enough to know that even if I was in 11^th right now I wouldn’t be worried, because with my core group of keepers I can usually game my way up the standings by the end of the year based on some keen adds and drops, as well as buying a couple of specific targets midway through the season when other teams start selling (paying draft picks for next year).

I have played a mixed bag of teams thus far, two currently in playoff spots and two on the outside. I have also been getting by without Aleksander Barkov, who makes a big impact at C with his FOWs instead of me having to look to stream those by the end of the week to keep up. Recently bailing on Tristan Jarry will hopefully help me in the long run too.

I’m shopping for an upgrade on the wings, and would be willing to give up the future potential on Carter Yakemchuk here for an upgrade at forward. It’s a balance with defencemen being tough to fill out keeper slots for sometimes, but I feel like by the end of the year I should be able to buy another one who covers our categories more anyways.

[Follow the link for more…] (oct28)

13. Cole Knuble is the first of three prospects that I’ll mention as players I recently added in my dynasty league and might be worth taking a look at in your leagues too. He may stand at only five-foot-10, but the 22-year old Knuble was one of the standouts in camp and has made certain that the Flyers will hesitate to send him down again based on the effort and high level of play he has shown to this point. He was skating on the “top” line with Trevor Zegras and Christian Dvorak last Tuesday, and had two goals through four games. (oct28)

14. Brayden Klimpke is off to a really hot start in the WHL this year with 15 points in 12 games (at time of writing), and has an interesting profile as a slick and intelligent offensive defenceman. He was selected in the 4^th round by the Habs in the 2026 draft, in part thanks to a massive growth spurt over the past couple years that saw him grow eight inches and nearly double his body weight. It’s early and the scoring could just be a blip on the radar, but I’m always intrigued by the smaller skilled players who have very late growth spurts and suddenly have some size to play with too. (oct28)

15. Drew Schock is a Ducks blueline prospect that I added recently in my dynasty league, and has been one of the brightest prospects early this season if you put any stock into PNHLe numbers (prospect equivalency numbers adjusted based on age, position, and league to tell you about where an NHLer might peak). He is playing on a loaded Michigan squad, and may be benefiting from playing with top-tier talent like Michael Hage and Jayden Perron up front, as well as ceding some of the tougher matchups to future 2027 first overall selection Landon DuPont. Still, it takes some level of talent and smarts to put up good numbers playing with good players, so it’s a positive sign that his scoring could translate well to the Pro ranks. (oct28)

16. Waiver Wire Targets

Continuing on with the weekly tradition, here are some waiver options for the upcoming week and potentially going forward (at time of writing).

Luke Evangelista (LW/RW) – 38% owned

The excitement around the Devils is understandable with the addition of Connor Hellebuyck. While he hadn't suited up for New Jersey yet (at time of writing), you could already see an extra pep in their step. Having Hellebuyck between the pipes will provide a sense of security on the back end, allowing the team to take a few extra chances knowing they have a netminder who can bail them out. Looking ahead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in roster percentages for Devils players, particularly those available on the waiver wire. Luke Evangelista and Arseny Gritsyuk are two names worth targeting, but I would prioritize Evangelista given his deployment on the top power-play unit and his additional 1:30 of ice time per game compared to Gritsyuk. For the short-term the Devils play just three games this week, with two coming on lighter nights, although those matchups are against Colorado and Vegas so they  will not be easy. Through eight games, Evangelista has seven points (3G, 4A) and is currently pacing for 74 points over a full season. (oct26)

17. Devin Cooley (G) – 11% owned

Devin Cooley’s post-game interviews have been entertaining, much like Jameis Winston’s for those who follow the NFL. What’s also been fun to watch is his play on the ice. Cooley has started three straight games for Calgary, winning all three while allowing just four goals. Two of those starts came against Carolina and Minnesota, where he made 36 and 39 saves, respectively. While he has not officially taken the starting job from Dustin Wolf, Cooley has been the better option lately. The Flames play four times this week, three of which are on off nights and while Calgary isn’t among the NHL’s worst teams, it’s far from a powerhouse. Matchups against Toronto, Edmonton, Seattle and Colorado won’t make for an easy week, particularly with three challenging opponents. Still, if Cooley gets three of the four starts, he could provide decent value for fantasy managers looking for a goalie to stream this week. (oct26)

18. Easton Cowan (LW) – 43% owned

Cowan has been turning heads in Toronto, recording four points over his last two games and totaling 12 points (5G, 7A) through 13 contests. While his current 78-point pace is unlikely to hold, that shouldn’t stop you from adding him, especially with his top-six role at even strength. Playing alongside Jack Roslovic and Auston Matthews gives Cowan an opportunity to continue producing making a consideration as a waiver-wire pickup. Cowan is reserved to the second powerplay unit averaging just over one minute of TOI and one power-play point on the season. His improved shot generation and 5v5 production are encouraging signs and while I wouldn’t expect him to maintain his current pace, he has a good chance to improve on last season’s 29 points. (oct26)

19. Matt Coronato (RW) – 6% owned

Through 10 games, Coronato has eight points (2G, 6A) and is seeing top-six minutes at even strength, which should give him opportunities to maintain his production. Looking at his underlying numbers, there are reasons to believe his goal scoring could improve. His 5v5 shooting percentage sits at 4.4%, down from 7.0% last season, while his overall shooting percentage is 8.3%, below his career average of 10.2%. If his finishing improves, we could see an uptick in goal production. However, keep in mind Calgary’s struggles at controlling play will remain a concern and are unlikely to disappear overnight.   Regardless, as I mention earlier, Calgary has a favourable schedule this week with four games and he in particular is riding a hot streak. His power-play production is another positive, with five of his eight points coming on the man advantage. Given his recent production, top-six deployment and power-play usage, Coronato is worth considering as a waiver-wire look this week. (oct26)

20. Drafting well and working the waiver wire are two keys to a successful fantasy season. The third key is knowing when to buy low and when to sell high on a player. Today, we’re going to do that by looking at Individual Points Percentage (IPP), which is how often a player registers a point when their team scores a goal with them on the ice. At this point last season, there were 32 forwards whose IPP was down 20% from the prior two seasons, averaging an IPP rate of 35.7%. From that point onward, their average IPP leapt to 63.1%, and half the group got within 5% of their initial 2-year IPP. The ones who didn’t quite regain their form were guys who got pushed down their lineups like Ondrej Palat, Trent Frederic, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Warren Foegele, and Philipp Kurashev.

So, we are going to review three forwards whose IPP to start the 2026-27 season is far off their prior two-year average and are not really candidates to be pushed down the lineup. Data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools.

Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)

At 39 years old, we are all just waiting for the bottom to fall out of Crosby’s production. With just seven points in 12 games to start the year, there may be concern that the huge age-related decline has finally started. The good news for sharp fantasy owners is that his abnormally-low IPP of 46.7% is far off his two-year average, presenting a good buying opportunity:

If Crosby’s IPP is anywhere near normal, he is sitting with 11 points in 12 games, and his fantasy managers aren’t panicking. There are some shot volume concerns here, so he may not reach the 30-goal mark this year, either overall or as an 84-game pace, but Frozen Tools has him with a 25% secondary assist percentage. Last year, that was 37.8% and the year before it was 43.1%. He may struggle to reach 30 goals unless his shot volume improves, but he is still very much in line to reach 40 assists.

Perhaps the days of Crosby averaging 90 points every 82 games are behind him, but that doesn’t mean his production will fall off the table, and he’s someone from whom we should still expect 70 points (or at least a 70-point pace depending on games missed). If you’re reading this and are fine with 70 points rather than 90, go see if his fantasy manager is panicking yet.

[Follow the link for more…] (oct27)

21. In Tuesday’s Ramblings (above), I went over three forwards fantasy managers should consider buying low, naming Sidney Crosby, Adam Fantilli, and Tyson Foerster. Not for nothing, but on Tuesday night, Fantilli and Foerster combined for one goal, two assists, five shots, three blocks, and three hits.

Today, we’ll be going in the other direction and covering players to sell high on. We will again be using Individual Points Percentage (IPP), which is how often a player registers a point when their team scores a goal with them on the ice. For a frame of reference, of 246 forwards with at least 1000 minutes played last season, none had an IPP over 85%, just seven forwards were over 80%, and just 15 of them were over 75%. That is a good barometer for being too high.

We will add on-ice shooting percentage, which is a team’s shooting percentage with a player on the ice. Again, from last season, no forward exceeded 17% and just 15 of them were over 15%. That is another barometer to consider.

All data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools and current as of Wednesday, October 28^th.

Leo Carlsson (Anaheim Ducks)

It is always hard selling high on a young player because it’s a fine line between overheating or improving skills. It can be both, and though Carlsson is off to a great start with 15 points in 12 games, both his IPP and on-ice shooting percentage indicate a player who is overheating quite a bit:

If Carlsson had a 70% IPP, which would be in line with his prior two seasons, and the team was shooting 11% with him on the ice, which would also be in line with the prior two years, Carlsson would be sitting with 8-9 points rather than 15. If we give him a 75% IPP – which would be among the highest in the league by the end of the year – and a 15% on-ice shooting percentage – which would also being among the league leaders in April – then he would have around 12 points. In other words, even if he had very efficient point-producing numbers, he is still outstripping the expected production by about 25%.

As things stand, Carlsson is on pace to reach/surpass the 100-point plateau. Unless the team dramatically improves its shot volume with him on the ice, he won’t reach the 100-point plateau. Fantasy managers should expect no more than 90 points, which means expecting no more than a point-per-game player from here on out.  

Anaheim’s next nine games include Calgary (x2), Pittsburgh, Vancouver, and Nashville. Maybe he can keep this magic going for a few weeks, but he won’t produce at this level much longer, and it doesn’t give a lot of time to trade him as a potential top-50 fantasy forward.

[Follow the link for more…] (oct29)

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Have a good week, folks!

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