The Restricted Free Agent (RFA) signings are starting to trickle in, and while we are still waiting on the big guns (Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, etc.) there are many fantasy-relevant ones to comb over. The last few weeks have seen several similar contracts get inked by emerging players in their early twenties. However not every $5 million contract is created equal. This week’s Capped is going through seven such signings, from least bang-for-your-buck, to the most. Buckle up!

Cap numbers are from Cap Friendly.

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Tomas Tatar –  Detroit Red Wings

Cap Hit: $5,300,000 per season for four years

Now this isn’t meant to be a knock on Tomas Tatar, he just signed the contract that was offered to him by the Red Wings. It was the Red Wings that are at fault here for two reasons. One, they are falling fast down the NHL food chain, and are not being proactive about sticking to a direction. Two, they failed to use the other summer signings as bargaining material, and instead used it as an example.

This contract isn’t great, but it isn’t awful by any means, so really this speaks to the shrewdness of the coming contracts on this list. The 26-year-old forward has scored more than 20, but less than 30 goals each of the previous three seasons, and has also put up 20 or more assists in each of the last four seasons. Fair to say that we know what to expect from Tatar, but hoping for a further breakout at this point is foolish. In most cap leagues, Tatar’s contract isn’t an anchor, but for 45 points and mediocre peripherals (at best), there are much more effective uses for your cap space.

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Tyler Johnson –  Tampa Bay Lightning

Cap Hit: $5,000,000 per season for seven years

Tyler Johnson ranks above Tatar for a few main reasons. First off, he has an outlier season as his best, but Johnson’s is 72 points, compared to the 56 from Tatar. Johnson is also a centre, and provides good faceoff wins for leagues that count it; the rest of the peripherals are a bit of a wash. Neither 26-year old is going to be rostered for much other than points, so the higher ceiling from Johnson makes the difference. The talent of his line mates in Tampa also factors in.

One downside to Johnson has been his troubles with injuries over the past couple seasons. He missed 16 games last season, and 13 the year before that. One has to hope that it doesn’t become a big trend for the small centre. If he is missing a dozen games a year or more, it really cuts into his production. On the flip side, as long as the salary cap continues to go up, then $5 million for an offensive centre is going to look like pocket change in a few years. The bottom line is that there are better (and less risky) ways to spend your money for now, but in a few years Johnson should make a solid own.

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Ondrej Palat –  Tampa Bay Lightning

Cap Hit: $5,300,000 per season for five years

The other 26-year-old Tampa Bay forward on this list gets the slight win due to his higher and more consistent point output, smaller injury history, and winger status. If you count faceoff wins, then centres are harder to come by, but in any league without faceoffs, left wing can be a very shallow position. If you subscribe to the 10 points per $1 million benchmark in cap leagues, then Palat’s average of 53.5 points over the last four seasons shows you that Tampa hit the nail on the head with fair value on this contract.

In reality, Tampa may even have themselves a bargain. Palat is an above average defensive forward, and brings an element of responsibility that neither Tatar nor Johnson can match. Not that this helps us in fantasy, but it does show why Palat got a bigger payday than Johnson, even though he is a winger and had less of his unrestricted free agent (UFA) years eaten up by his new contract. Generally, the earlier UFA years are the highest earning ones, so until his next contract, Palat is providing good value, but it will be for a shorter time than Johnson.

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Jaccob Slavin –  Carolina Hurricanes

Cap Hit: $5,300,000 per season for seven years

Jacob Slavin sees a higher seed on this list mainly because the going rate for defencemen is higher. Carolina is putting together a very solid defence core, and Slavin will be a large part of their success moving forward. Slavin even received a couple of fifth place Norris votes for his work last season. If that doesn’t tell you just how underrated he is, then I don’t know what can.

Slavin’s value lies more in his real life talent, but the ice time ensures he will continue to produce solid fantasy numbers, if only due to volume. The upside with hits and shots are limited, but the points, blocks and plus minus should continue to make him worth your while, especially in the later years of the contract. Carolina on the whole should be an improved squad over last year, due to the growth of the young players and the addition of goaltender Scott Darling. If Darling can do what Cam Talbot has done for Edmonton (and I think he can) then that also brings the whole defence core up a step, because they are spending less time digging pucks out of the back of their net, and can take a few more offensive risks.

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Mika Zibanejad –  New York Rangers

Cap Hit: $5,350,000 per season for five years

The new number one centre on the New York Rangers has a new contract that doesn’t pay him like a first-line centre. Mika Zibanejad is being thrust into the top-line role for next season with the trade of Derek Stepan to Arizona. No replacement centre has been brought in, so it is up to Zibanejad, and one of Kevin Hayes or J.T. Miller to fill the centre spots on the top two lines. This means a lot more faceoffs, and an easier route to time on the top powerplay unit, but also all the responsibilities that come with being the top line centre. For some unknown reason, Zibanejad’s hit totals cratered last season. Maybe it was the new role, maybe it was a lingering injury, or maybe it was just a different stats guy counting his performance. If he can get back even close to the 100+ hits per season he was averaging in Ottawa, he becomes an even more valuable fantasy player.

All in all this should be good for Zibanejad. He has the opportunity to boost his peripheral stats with more minutes, even though he should improve on the 17 minutes a game from last year. The past two seasons, Zibanejad has paced himself to a point rate that would put him in the low 50s in a full season. However, he has yet to hit 15 powerplay points in any season. With the first line centre job now his to run with, a bump over 20 powerplay points could be in the cards, which would push him up over 60 points, and into another tier of production. The $5.35 million he will be paid annually may seem like fair value, or a bit much based on what we have seen from him this far, but Zibanejad is primed to take another step, and you would be lucky to have him on your team when he does.

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Colton Parayko –  St. Louis Blues

Cap Hit: $5,500,000 per season for five years

A lot has been said about Parayko over the last couple of days in the ramblings here, here, and here. I will be brief with my take on his new contract. For a young, top-pair defenceman that has yet to hit an offensive peak, and is already solid defensively, this contract will look like a steal down the line. It is fair market value at the moment, and we should be looking at 40 points, with solid numbers in the shots, hits and blocks categories as well. Unlikely that you can buy low at this point, but he is certainly still worth inquiring about to get the monster defenceman on your team before he peaks.

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Viktor Arvidsson –  Nashville Predators

Cap Hit: $4,250,000 per season for five years

Yes, I know I am cheating a little on the article topic. Arvidsson is not going to be making over $5 million a season, even though many fantasy managers had set aside more than that to accommodate his new contract. Arvidsson very easily could have been making over the $5 million mark, but because the term was extended for job security after only one big season, the two sides made things work on a deal that should turn out to be a win for both. For Nashville general manager David Poile, this was just another standard contract signing, not even a bargain.

Compared to the rest of the league though, this Arvidsson deal looks like an absolute steal. Paying a 60-point player $4.25 million a season, when he also puts up excellent shot totals, and chips in well on both sides of the special teams game is a little ridiculous in this day and age. Now he does lose some value in the leagues where hits, blocks and penalty minutes are main categories, but the other stats more than make up for it. His shooting percentage of 12.6% may be a touch high, but he should be able to counter that drop with an uptick from only nine power play points last season.

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For now, Arvidsson represents the best bargain RFA deal of the summer. However, for those of you in multi-cat leagues, now may be the time to buy on Bo Horvat, who I think could end up being another very good bargain contract once he puts pen to paper on a new deal.

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As always, you can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean where I post some of my other smaller musings that don’t make it into the articles.