Looking Ahead: Opportunity Knocks For Donskoi
Adam Daly-Frey
2019-11-01
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Stats updated through Wednesday, October 30
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Joonas Donskoi, W, Colorado Avalanche (Available in 91 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – In what feels like a repeat from last week’s J.T. Compher recommendation – two assists and four shots in three games – this week sees more of the same, as an injury to a stud Avalanche winger (Landeskog) has created a great opportunity. Joonas Donskoi, welcome to the party!
Donskoi has always been a strong driver of play (53% CF or better in San Jose and 55% Goal Share or better in three of the four seasons in SJ) but hasn’t been great in that regard in Denver so far, a negative possession player (47% CF) for the first time ever. A large part of that has been his role on the team, playing essentially a shutdown role with Nazem Kadri at 5v5, and seeing his offensive zone starts drop from the 58-63% range of years past all the way down to 43% this season. That should change though, as Donskoi’s been gifted a spot alongside Nathan MacKinnon (and Kadri) on Colorado’s top line (as well as the top power play).
In his first game with MacKinnon, Donskoi played 15:27 at 5v5 (the 16th-most of his career), was on for two goals (scoring one with one of his two shots) and was on for zero d-zone starts/two d-zone faceoffs, which is a dramatic change in responsibilities from what he’d seen as an Av. With Mikko Rantanen listed as week-to-week and Landeskog expected to be out even longer, Donskoi’s value should be sky-high.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Cam Fowler, D, Anaheim Ducks (Available in 80 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After putting up 10G-30A in his rookie season, Fowler has yet to repeat that point total and has missed 15 and 23 games the past two seasons which could maybe explain why he’s so low-owned and devalued as a fantasy asset. For a player that sees great PP time and over 22 minutes/game for his career, Fowler as a free add has a ton of upside.
Already at 3G-4A on the season and with 14 BLK and 24 SOG, Fowler’s already having a better season than some of the (much) higher-owned defensemen on Yahoo! and his opportunity to build on that couldn’t be higher as teammates Josh Manson (MCL) and Hampus Lindholm (day-to-day) are injured. Fowler just needs to stay healthy to pay off, and should be added in any league where he’s available.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
John Klingberg, D, Dallas Stars (Owned in 92 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With the Stars’ major struggles to start the season (5-8-1 in 14GP, only 10% PP success, last in goals/game), any player in the Big D could be picked out as a disappointment whose short-term value is cause of concern, but Klingberg has probably been the biggest letdown – especially when compared to the younger, lower-owned Miro Heiskanen (3G-5A).
Klingberg is still eating a ton of minutes (24:11 on the season, and usually top PP minutes) and shooting the puck a ton (33 SOG through 14 games), so his miserable point total (1G-2A) seems sure to rebound at some point – but that point doesn’t feel very close at the moment. Klingberg is a minus-10 on the year, shooting 3% lower than his career average and doesn’t pick up many peripherals, so rolling him out every night isn’t helping his owners.
The Swedish stud is too clearly talented to consider moving (at his lowest point) or dropping, but if there’s room on the bench, he should be riding the pine for the next couple weeks. This is especially true with the Stars’ very light upcoming schedule.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago Blackhawks (Owned in 61 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Toews had a career resurgence last year under Jeremy Colliton, hitting 35G-46A and 235 SOG which were all career-highs, and he played 82 games for the first time since 2008-09. Unfortunately, the Hawks haven’t been able to recreate that magic so far, as Toews has a miserable 1G-1A in 11 games and is a -5; he’s playing 19:50/game which is a full minute less than last season, and Chicago’s 9% PP success rate isn’t helping anyone in a Hawks jersey.
Colliton has been swapping around the lines trying to find success to no avail, which means Toews has cycled through wingers both good (Alex DeBrincat) and bad (Drake Caggiula). Toews’ most common linemates last year were Brandon Saad and Patrick Kane and he had the most success with Kane, scoring 3.59G/60 at 5v5. He’s also struggled on the power play (obviously), but the lack of success looks starker because Toews had 25 PP points last season.
Toews doesn’t pick up much in the way of peripherals (outside of FOW), passing 50 PIM only once, 50 Hits only once, and never 50 blocks. He does usually end up in the ~200 shots on goal range, but there are better options available on the waiver wire.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Colorado – Making a second straight appearance here, the Avs have six games during the period of November 1 to 13, and have added value thanks to their opponents: both home and away games against the Stars, road games against the Jets and Coyotes, and home games against the Blue Jackets and Predators. The Nashville and Arizona games are a wash, but expect to see lots of scoring in the other four games.
N.Y. Rangers – Teams in the Metro division have played a startingly-low number of games so far (six have played 12 or less, including the Rangers and Devils at 10) especially when compared to some of the teams out West, which means the Rags get to squeeze six games in during this period. Even missing Mika Zibanejad (day-to-day), the Rangers have scored 14 goals in their past three games and get the opportunity to play defensive tire fires like Ottawa, Florida, Detroit and Pittsburgh (all at home!). Their other two games come on the road at Nashville and Carolina.
Carolina – Another Metro team, the Hurricanes have a phenomenal schedule to kick off November, with six games against laughably-bad teams: home against New Jersey, Detroit, Ottawa and the Rangers, and road games against Philadelphia and Ottawa. Those teams are allowing the second-most (NJ), fifth-most (DET), seventh-most (NYR), 11th-most (PHI) and 13th-most (OTT) goals against per game, while Carolina is scoring at the league average clip of 3.2 goals/game.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Buffalo – Only one team has a worse schedule in this stretch than the Sabres do, as Buffalo has to head to Europe to play against the Lightning for the NHL Global Series. They play four games in this stretch, which includes two back-to-backs, and then four- and five-day breaks for travel. They play in Washington, home against the Islanders (second half of the first b2b) and then the two games in Finland.
Tampa Bay – The Sabres’ Global Series opponent also has a tough run thanks to the travel to and from Europe, and actually only have three games; this is about the lowest possible amount of games during a two-week stretch, even when accounting for bye weeks. They play at the Islanders – funny enough, the night before the Sabres play the Islanders – and then head to Finland to face the Sabres. Nice to beat up on soft competition, but the light schedule means fade the Lightning in fantasy.
Dallas – Sitting DFL in terms of Goals For/game, the Dallas Stars have only topped four goals three times all season and have been shut out twice. They managed to put in six against the Wild but with only five games during this period, they’ll be in tough to score even without accounting for how bad they’ve been so far. They play the Avs twice, the Habs, Flames and Jets.
November 1 to November 7 |
Best Bets |
CAR 4.31 – Away PHI – Home DET NJD NYR |
SJS 4.305 – Home WPG VAN CHI MIN |
N.Y. Rangers 4.2675 – Away NSH CAR- Home OTT DET |
PHI 4.205 – Away NJD – Home TOR CAR MTL |
ARI 4.1475 – Away EDM CGY – Home COL CBJ |
Steer Clear |
TBL 0.95 – Away NYI – Home |
BUF 1.9525 – Away WSH – Home NYI |
FLA 2.205 – Away – Home DET WSH |
MIN 2.85 – Away ANH SJS- Home STL |
EDM 2.9025 – Away PIT – Home ARI STL |
November 2 to November 8 |
Best Bets |
N.Y. Rangers 4.2675 – Away NSH CAR – Home OTT DET |
BOS 4.2425 – Away MTL DET- Home OTT PIT |
ARI 4.1475 – Away EDM CGY – Home COL CBJ |
EDM 3.9525 – Away PIT – Home ARI STL NJD |
CGY 3.9525 – Away CBJ WSH – Home ARI NJD |
Steer Clear |
TBL 1.045 – Away BUF- Home |
BUF 1.995 – Away – Home NYI TBL |
WSH 2 – Away FLA – Home CGY |
ANH 2.1 – Away – Home CHI MIN |
DAL 2.205 – Away – Home MTL COL |
November 3 to November 9 |
Best Bets |
CGY 4 – Away WSH – Home ARI NJD STL |
ARI 3.99 – Away EDM CGY – Home CBJ MIN |
OTT 3.9425 – Away NYR NYI – Home LAK CAR |
CHI 3.915 – Away ANH SJS PIT- Home VAN |
N.Y. Rangers 3.365 – Away CAR – Home OTT DET |
Steer Clear
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DAL 1.1025 – Away – Home COL |
BUF 1.8 – Away TBL- Home TBL |
FLA 1.9475 – Away NYI- Home WSH |
ANH 2.1 – Away – Home CHI MIN |
TBL 2.2 – Away BUF – Home BUF |
November 4 to November 10 |
Best Bets |
N.Y. Rangers 4.415 – Away CAR – Home OTT DET FLA |
CHI 4.115 – Away SJS PIT – Home VAN TOR |
TOR 4.09 – Away CHI- Home LAK VGK PHI |
BOS 4.085 – Away MTL DET – Home PIT PHI |
PHI 4.0525 – Away TOR BOS- Home CAR MTL |
Steer Clear |
DAL 2.005 – Away WPG- Home COL |
BUF 1.8 – Away TBL – Home TBL |
ANH 2.1 – Away – Home MIN EDM |
WSH 2 – Away FLA – Home VGK |
TBL 2.2 – Away BUF – Home BUF |
November 5 to November 11 |
Best Bets |
CAR 4.3525 – Away PHI OTT – Home NYR OTT |
TOR 4.09 – Away CHI – Home LAK VGK PHI |
PHI 4.0525 – Away TOR BOS – Home CAR MTL |
CHI 4.115 – Away SJS PIT – Home VAN TOR |
VAN 3.995 – Away CHI WPG – Home STL NJD |
Steer Clear |
BUF 1.8 – Away TBL – Home TBL |
NSH 1.9475 – Away COL SJS – Home |
DAL 2.005 – Away WPG – Home COL |
ANH 2.1 – Away – Home MIN EDM |
PIT 2.105 – Away NYI – Home CHI |
November 6 to November 12 |
Best Bets |
N.Y. Rangers 4.1525 – Away CAR – Home DET FLA PIT |
VAN 3.995 – Away CHI WPG – Home NJD NSH |
DET 3.9475 – Away NYR ANH- Home BOS VGK |
EDM 3.9 – Away ANH SJS- Home STL NJD |
FLA 3.8475 – Away NYI NYR BOS- Home WSH |
Steer Clear |
DAL 0.9025 – Away WPG – Home |
BUF 1.8 – Away TBL – Home TBL |
N.Y. Islanders 1.995 – Away – Home PIT FLA |
CGY 2.0475 – Away – Home NJD STL |
TBL 2.2 – Away BUF – Home BUF |
November 7 to November 13 |
Best Bets |
NJD 4.295 – Away CGY EDM VAN – Home OTT |
VGK 4.1475 – Away TOR WSH DET – Home CHI |
CHI 4.115 – Away PIT VGK- Home VAN TOR |
TOR 4.095 – Away CHI NYI- Home VGK PHI |
WSH 4 – Away FLA PHI- Home VGK ARI |
Steer Clear |
BUF 1.8 – Away TBL – Home TBL |
DAL 1.8525 – Away WPG CGY- Home |
STL 2 – Away CGY – Home ARI |
TBL 2.2 – Away BUF – Home BUF |
ANH 2.3625 – Away – Home EDM DET |