Looking Ahead: The Habs Offer Value Next Week
Adam Daly-Frey
2018-11-02
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Stats updated through Thursday, October 25
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Dustin Brown, W, Los Angeles Kings (Available in 65 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although he’s constantly derided as being a plug in the same vein as Milan Lucic (who is a plug,) Brown should be added in any leagues where he’s available – immediately. Last year, Brown put up 28-33 (including 25 PP points) while firing 222 pucks on net and averaging just under three peripheral stats (hit/blk) per game; he’s healthy and playing top minutes alongside Anze Kopitar again, and saw 22:17 in his first game back which also included a goal.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
David Rittich, G, Calgary Flames (Available in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Here’s what Calgary’s ostensible starter Mike Smith has done this season: ten games started with five wins, a .871 save percentage, and five “really bad starts” – starts below .850. Conversely, Rittich has started four times (six appearances) and has a 3W-1L line with a sparkling 0.939 SV% and four quality starts to zero bad starts. Considering they play behind the exact same team, this should speak volumes about the low quality goaltending the Flames are getting from Smith. Rittich should continue to pick up more consistent starts.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Matt Murray, G, Pittsburgh (Owned in 92 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Much like the David Rittich/Mike Smith situation in Calgary, Matt Murray is in danger of getting Wally Pipp’ed after his tough injury issues and poor play to start the season. It never feels good to point to concussions as a possible problem, but through his first six starts – which is a lower number than it should be since he missed time with another concussion – he’s lost twice (fine!) and picked up a shutout (even finer!) but has allowed 21 goals. His save percentage is an ugly-looking 0.893, he’s at -2.977 Goals Saved Above Average, and while he’ll still pick up wins thanks to the offensive side of the Penguins, his stats could be ugly and if they stay ugly much longer he’s in danger of moving into a 1A/1B.
For comparison’s sake, Casey DeSmith is at 2-0-2 with a 0.932 SV%, one shutout, and three quality starts to zero bad starts in his four started games (five overall).
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Patrick Marleau, W, Toronto Maple Leafs (Owned in 45 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Averaging close to what he saw last year, 17:14, Marleau is well on his way to another 82-game season where he fails to hit 50 points. With only 1G-4A through 12 games, Marleau is only on pace for 34 points – and only one of those five came on the power play. While his goal-scoring could be chalked up to a shooting percentage 9% less than his career average, Marleau is only on pace for 157 shots this season and should see a career low in goals.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Tampa Bay – Between the 2nd and 14th, the Lightning have six games, and they see some very soft opponents in that stretch: Ottawa (twice), Edmonton, the Islanders and Buffalo. There’s only one back-to-back (at Montreal followed by Ottawa) but Tampa still gets three home games out of the six and currently sit 5th in goals for.
Montreal – The Habs also have six games, and also get the benefit of facing some easier-than-average teams. Beyond games at home against Tampa Bay and Vegas which could pose some problems, Montreal gets to face both New York teams as well as Buffalo and Edmonton. Montreal’s currently 8th in Corsi% at 5v5 and their top-six have been clicking along well – the Habs have scored three or more in eight of eleven games so far.
San Jose – Tied with Tampa for 5th in Goals For and now with Joe Thornton back, the Sharks play six games during this period, with four coming at home and only one back-to-back. The back-to-back are both road games, coming against Dallas and St. Louis, but the rest of their schedule sees them face off against Philadelphia, Minnesota, Nashville and Calgary.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
An apology: I didn’t realize Florida/Winnipeg played in Finland last week when I wrote about the Panthers’ horrible schedule
Winnipeg – Coming back from Helsinki, the Jets only get four games during this period. Three of the games are at home which will help (the other is in Helsinki), but they face tough shutdown opponents in Colorado and New Jersey, as well as Buffalo and Washington.
Calgary – The Flames have three days off between a home game against Chicago and the start of their California road trip, and only play four times between the 2nd and 14th. They do have a back-to-back which is good for David Rittich (see above), but not great for a team that was in a major dry spell offensively before a five-goal outburst during the third period of Thursday’s win over Colorado.
Florida – The Panthers get five days off after playing the Jets in Helsinki and then get three straight home games, but also have a back-to-back jammed in there and end their five-game stretch at Philadelphia. The Cats’ opponents should help Florida generate some offense – Edmonton, NY Islanders, Ottawa – but Florida’s had an extremely inconsistent season in terms of scoring and at a time when goals are easy to come by, Florida is averaging just three goals per game.
November 2 to November 8 |
Best Bets |
TBL 4.2425 – Away MTL OTT – Home EDM NYI |
OTT 4.1425 – Away BUF – Home TBL NJD VGK |
MTL 4.1425 – Away NYI NYR – Home TBL BUF |
CAR 3.895 – Away ARI VGK STL CHI- Home |
EDM 3.7525 – Away DET WSH TBL FLA- Home |
Steer Clear |
WPG 1.05 – Away – Home FLA |
TOR 1.905 – Away PIT – Home VGK |
FLA 1.9525 – Away WPG – Home EDM |
COL 2.0375 – Away VAN – Home NSH |
NSH 2.0475 – Away COL – Home BOS |
November 3 to November 9 |
Best Bets |
TBL 4.2425 – Away MTL OTT – Home EDM NYI |
OTT 4.1425 – Away BUF – Home TBL NJD VGK |
MTL 4.1425 – Away NYI NYR – Home TBL BUF |
WSH 3.99 – Away – Home DAL EDM PIT CBJ |
SJS 3.9425 – Away DAL STL- Home PHI MIN |
Steer Clear |
FLA 1.05 – Away – Home EDM |
WPG 1.1025 – Away – Home COL |
COL 1.8475 – Away WPG- Home NSH |
ARI 2 – Away PHI – Home PHI |
VAN 2.0425 – Away DET BOS – Home |
November 4 to November 10 |
Best Bets |
TBL 4.3525 – Away OTT – Home EDM NYI OTT |
MTL 4.2475 – Away NYI NYR – Home BUF VGK |
NYR 4.21 – Away DET CBJ- Home BUF MTL |
CBJ 4.015 – Away ANH WSH – Home DAL NYR |
OTT 3.9525 – Away TBL- Home TBL NJD VGK |
Steer Clear |
WPG 1.1025 – Away – Home COL |
CGY 1.71 – Away ANH LAK- Home |
COL 1.8475 – Away WPG – Home NSH
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NSH 1.995 – Away COL DAL- Home |
FLA 2.1525 – Away – Home EDM NYI |
November 5 to November 11 |
Best Bets |
BOS 4.41 – – Home DAL VAN TOR VGK |
MTL 4.2475 – Away NYI NYR – Home BUF VGK |
VGK 3.99 – Away TOR OTT MTL BOS- Home |
OTT 3.9575 – Away TBL FLA- Home NJD VGK |
SJS 3.9425 – Away DAL STL – Home MIN CGY |
Steer Clear |
CHI 2.21 – Away PHI – Home CAR |
NSH 1.995 – Away COL DAL – Home |
BUF 2.2525 – Away MTL – Home VAN |
WPG 2.205 – Away – Home COL NJD |
CGY 2.66 – Away ANH LAK SJS- Home |
November 6 to November 12 |
Best Bets |
CAR 4.3575 – Away STL CHI – Home DET CHI |
VAN 4.1325 – Away DET BOS BUF NYR- Home |
CBJ 4.11 – Away WSH DAL- Home DAL NYR |
NYR 4.2625 – Away DET CBJ – Home MTL VAN |
VGK 3.99 – Away TOR OTT MTL BOS – Home |
Steer Clear |
NYI 1.805 – Away TBL FLA – Home |
PIT 1.905 – Away WSH – Home ARI |
PHI 2.205 – Away – Home ARI CHI |
WPG 2.205 – Away – Home COL NJD |
BUF 2.2525 – Away MTL – Home VAN |
November 7 to November 13 |
Best Bets |
FLA 4.2575 – Away PHI- Home EDM NYI OTT |
VAN 4.0375 – Away BOS BUF NYR NYI- Home |
SJS 3.9425 – Away DAL STL – Home CGY NSH |
NSH 3.8475 – Away COL DAL ANH SJS- Home |
ARI 3.7525 – Away PHI PIT WSH DET- Home |
Steer Clear |
STL 1.995 – Away – Home SJS MIN |
WPG 2.205 – Away – Home COL NJD |
CGY 2.66 – Away ANH LAK SJS – Home |
COL 2.7975 – Away WPG EDM – Home NSH |
NJD 2.7975 – Away TOR WPG – Home PIT |
November 8 to November 14 |
Best Bets |
CHI 4.4 – Away PHI CAR – Home CAR STL |
BOS 4.305 – Away COL- Home VAN TOR VGK |
FLA 4.2575 – Away PHI – Home EDM NYI OTT |
VAN 4.0375 – Away BOS BUF NYR NYI – Home |
VGK 4.0375 – Away OTT MTL BOS – Home ANH |
Steer Clear |
CGY 1.7575 – Away LAK SJS – Home |
PIT 2.0475 – Away NJD – Home ARI |
NJD 2.7975 – Away TOR WPG – Home PIT |
ANH 2.84 – Away VGK- Home MIN NSH |
NSH 2.85 – Away DAL ANH SJS – Home |