West: A Return to Time on Ice

by chriskane on January 14, 2019

 

A couple of weeks ago we started to talk about players who were seeing changes in their total time on ice. I mentioned there would be more to come, and here is the next installment. What we are trying to capture is players who are seeing their deployment change so we can try and take advantage of it. Obviously players who are getting more time on ice, and especially more time on the power play are more likely to score. Players who are losing time are less likely to score.

 

A quick note of process in the interest of full disclosure. The data here is based on a player’s most recent week’s worth of games and then compared to the combined games of the month prior. It does mean players sometimes have different sample sizes, but I have tried to keep that data apparent. The smaller the number of games the more difficult it is to predict that the trend will continue. Obviously there are no guarantees with any of these changes, and it is possible that some of these changes will be reversed quickly if the coach didn’t like the results. It is a good way to discover some good gambles though.

 

This week we are going to highlight players who are seeing a beneficial change to their deployment. These are players we might want to jump on if we have the chance.

 

The first thing this report does is highlight those players who are coming back off of injury. Bigger name guys like Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler, and Filip Forsberg jump right to the top of this week’s list. The top ten total time on ice gains (outside of the injury returns) are listed below with a few notes. 

 

Name

Pos

Team

GP

Δ TOI

 

JACK ROSLOVIC

C

WPG

4

4:26

SVEN BAERTSCHI

L

VAN

2

4:16

BROCK BOESER

R

VAN

2

4:09

OSKAR SUNDQVIST

C

STL

4

3:52

ZACH SANFORD

L

STL

4

3:36

ILYA KOVALCHUK

L

L.A

3

3:23

MAX PACIORETTY

L

VGK

4

3:11

J.T. COMPHER

L

COL

3

2:41

CONOR GARLAND

R

ARI

3

2:40

NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN

R

VAN

2

2:33

 

Jack Roslovic: Recently bumped up to (only) 14 minutes, but those minutes have been with Brian Little, and Patrik Laine.

 

Sven Baertschi, Nikolay Goldobin, Brock Boeser: Lines seem to be juggling in Vancouver, but all are seeing close to season high minutes recently. Often with some combination of each other and Bo Horvat.

 

Oskar Sundqvist: Still seeing third line deployment, but ice time is up as is power play time with Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron and Vladimir Tarasenko.  

 

Zach Sanford: Lines changing a bit here too, but tops of 17 minutes between the second and third lines.

 

Ilya Kovalchuk: Back with Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar seeing 18-19 minutes and top power play time.

 

Max Pacioretty: Up with Jonathan Marchessault, and William Karlsson and seeing 20 minutes a game, plus top power play time.

 

J.T. Compher: Recently highlighted here, but still gaining time. Up to 23 minutes a game on the second line and the top power play.

 

Conor Garland: Lines in Arizona seem to be shifting with Nick Schmaltz out. Garland recently saw 16-17 minutes total with three minutes of power play time with Alex Galchenyuk.

 

This next list of players is the guys who have seen the largest increase in their power play ice time.

 

Name

Pos

Team

GP

Δ %PP

Δ PPTOI

JACOB TROUBA

D

WPG

4

47

2:28

TOMAS NOSEK

L

VGK

4

33

1:40

ALEX PIETRANGELO

D

STL

4

30.6

1:19

DYLAN STROME

C

CHI

3

30.5

0:32

CONOR GARLAND

R

ARI

3

24.8

1:42

ROBERT THOMAS

C

STL

4

24.4

1:24

NICK BONINO

C

NSH

5

23.8

1:09

BRANDON PIRRI

C

VGK

2

23

1:43

JACK ROSLOVIC

C

WPG

4

22.1

1:09

ALEX GALCHENYUK

C

ARI

3

21.6

1:35

 

I am not going to go through this whole list. The idea is all of these folks are gaining power play time, and a fair amount. Act accordingly.

 

Jacob Trouba: Trouba seems to have taken over the top power play in recent games. He has seen up to 70% of his teams total man advantage time and 4-5 minutes of total power play time.

 

Tomas Nosek: Seeing a big increase of time on the top power play.

 

Alex Pietrangelo: Like Trouba, we have a new defensive quarterback in Saint Louis. Pietrangelo is seeing 60-70% of his teams’ power play time.

 

Potential Streaming Pickups: (Stats as of Sunday)

 

Ondrej Kase has been a bit cold of late, but this upcoming week is a good time to break that spell. Anaheim has a great schedule, Kase has been getting good deployment on the second line and the top power play, and has 12 shots over his last four games.

 

Oskar Sundqvist: Four points, four shots and top power play deployment to finish off the weekend. Mostly still on the third line, but the power play deployment makes im an interesting look for the upcoming week.

 

 

Last article’s recommendation

 

Charlie Coyle: Everything stayed the same for Coyle last week. Except the most important fantasy numbers. He went on a four game pointless streak, and put up only five shots. He was certainly a bust after six points in his previous four games.

 

David Perron: Perron on the other hand kept his streak going. He ended the week with two goals, two assists, 11 shots and a power play point. If you added him he may be worth a hold as he seems to be really clicking for the moment with Ryan O’Reilly.

 

Drop or Not

 

Jeff Carter is on pace for a career low 40 points. He is owned in just 41% of Yahoo leagues and in many cases rightly so. He hasn’t given owners much reason to hold on. So if you are one of the 41% what do you do with him?

 

On the plus side, his average time on ice is actually up from 2017-18, his personal and team five on five shooting percentage are lower than normal, as is his IPP. That tells us he is still in a position to get scoring chances, but is possibly a bit snakebitten in terms of scoring goals, and getting in on his teammates goals. That all indicates that he should be in for some positive regression.

 

On the flip side, Carter is actually getting less power play time on average than 2017-18, is shooting less than 2.5 shots per game, down from over three in recent seasons (even with more minutes on the ice), hasn’t had consistent linemates, has a history of injury trouble, and is now 34.

 

The upshot of all of that is I don’t think Carter is a 40 point player the rest of the season. But I also don’t see him as a 60-65 point player the rest of the way either. I’d say there is a good case to be made for 55-60 point pace the rest of the way in a good scenario. He is likely still worth rostering in most leagues, but is a definite step down from the Carter of recent years, particularly when also considering the loss of shot volume. 

 

Thanks for reading.