Ramblings: Bishop vs. Binnington, Tarasenko vs. Laine, Jimmy Vesey, Victor Olofsson, Thatcher Demko and more (Aug 26)

***

The Fantasy Guide update from Saturday includes Patrick Maroon to the Lightning – and how that shifted the roster around. Information that the newsstands do not have – including updated line combos.

*

It's heart of #FantasyHockey dead zone.

You want to do something. You look at your roster for the 83rd time this wk.
Maybe you should drop…this guy instead of that guy?
Or…shop this guy around, see if there's any interest?

Taking your Qs for tonight's Ramblings. Fire away!

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) August 25, 2019

I need help   bishop  binnington mcdavid  mackinnon who do i trade or drop pick 1

— B Appel (@Black_Aces_) August 25, 2019

I don’t like outright dropping great talent so of course if you get an offer for Bishop or Binnington then you take it. But in a minimal keepers situation like this one, that’s easier said than done so if you’re stuck then Bishop has to go.

*

Have you ever considered joining the DobberProspects FHL?
We may be expanding next year

— Mason Black (@NHLRankKing) August 25, 2019

About 10 years ago I was in six leagues and found it to be too much – and I was suffering in all my leagues because of it. I was embarrassing myself – too slow picking up guys in this league and that, or missing deadlines (missing one, in my books, and your season is sunk). And doing what I do, I can’t embarrass myself in fantasy hockey leagues. So I cut back to five. I still wasn’t happy so that went to four. One league ended on its own and I’ve been at three ever since. And you know what? I’m enjoying all of them and very happy. I feel like I’m never embarrassing myself, either always in the mix to win or at least in a clear and effective plan to rebuild. I’m happy with three leagues and I really want to continue to enjoy it, so I won’t put myself in that situation again. Maybe when I retire from this, I can make being a full-time fantasy owner a thing.

*

Gibson, Rittich, Binnington. Can keep 2…..who's the odd man out?

— Mike Doll (@LoudMouthMike13) August 25, 2019

Rittich has to go. Wins will be hard to come by for Gibson this year, but he should still get 25 of them but post great stats otherwise. I have Rittich for 21. By the time he takes the top job full time (assuming he even does that), it will be two months into the season and it will be too late for him to get many wins beyond Gibson’s 25 – and I suspect his GAA and SV% won’t be as good.

*

Thoughts on Olofsson vs Vesey for next season.

— Geoff Boldgloom (@geoffboldgloom) August 25, 2019

Jimmy Vesey – A highly-touted prospect who hasn’t yet panned out, Vesey has first-line upside but seems likely to top out as a second-liner. His trade to Buffalo was huge for his fantasy owners, because the Sabres have been hot for this kid since he turned pro and the team tried to sign him (and failed). That makes him a Golden Boy. So there is absolutely a chance that he gets to play with Jack Eichel. As a bigger forward, but not necessarily “huge” (6-3, 199), Vesey is by our definition a 400-game breakout guy. He’s currently played 240. That’s two years away. But because he’s barely on that ‘big forward’ standard that we arbitrarily set, his big year coming before the 400-game mark wouldn’t surprise. I have him as a strong sleeper for 55 points (20% confidence in the guide).

Victor Olofsson – Had a very successful transition to North American hockey last year, making an immediate impact in the AHL with 63 points in 66 games for Rochester. He added four in six games in his NHL debut. He’s ready, and he has upside that is higher than that of Vesey. He won’t get the early opportunities that Vesey will, nor does he have the same Golden Boy status. However, he has thus far been the type of player to make his own opportunities. To force the matter. And boy do I love those players. I am more confident in Olofsson’s long-term fantasy value than I am Vesey’s and would rather own Olofsson in a keeper league. However, my money is on Vesey in one-year leagues.

*

Keeper league w/ cap, G/A/+-/PIM/SOG/PPP, I can only keep one of Hedman/Byfuglien. Trying to win this year. Buff has very low trade value, Hedman could net me much more. Roll the dice and keep Buff + Hedman's return? (Other keeper D are Giordano, Gustafsson, Sergachev).

— danno (@drack55) August 25, 2019

This would depend on what you would get for Victor Hedman. If he can get you Eichel, then do that. But if it’s a lesser player or draft picks, then keep Hedman.

*

How long until Demko is the starter in Vancouver and how long until he's actually fantasy relevant?

— Ommmzzz (@Ommmzzz) August 25, 2019

Either one year or four years. If Jacob Markstrom has a great start to his season and signs a lengthy extension, Thatcher Demko owners would be in trouble. Last season Markstrom had 38 quality starts and 63.3% of his starts were QS. That’s fourth and sixth in the entire league (minimum 20 starts). If he does that again, then come January I have a hard time believing the Canucks won’t come to him with a long-term offer to keep him. Then again, if he slips while Demko flourishes, Demko will be a great fantasy asset in as little as one year from now. But we really won’t know until around Christmas. If you want my guess, I really like Markstrom, who seems to have finally come into his own. I remember when he was 19, 20 and 21 and considered the best goalie prospect in all of hockey. Sure it’s three or four years late, but stuff like that sticks in my head. Demko is still only 23, so if Markstrom is showing any sign that he can do it again, the team will play it safe and try to keep him, knowing Demko can wait three years and still be on a normal goalie track (just look at Juuse Saros).

*

Im offered the 8th pick overall plus nolan for Demko..should i ask for more?   I have binnimgton, fleury, schneider and grubauer..dynasty format and G are rare earth value

— Pedrito (@solo223) August 25, 2019

I am assuming you mean Nolan Patrick, since I doubt you own Jordan Nolan (and Owen Nolan long retired). I don’t think he’s good enough yet to just go by “Nolan” the way we have “Sid”, “Gino” or “Nate”. This is a tough one because goalies are indeed rarified earth in a lot of formats (such as mine) and seeing the price people pay for ‘maybes’ has sometimes surprised me. This is a pretty good offer, and Demko’s future is far from certain. He’s a pretty sure bet – as far as that can go with goalies – to become a star NHL starter, but will that be a year from now or in four years? That’s a good draft pick and Patrick has reasonable upside so I would haggle a bit and try to get more, but in the end I would take the deal. You have good goaltending depth and you can always draft another one.

*

How do you compare Batherson and Olofsson VS draftees in the 5-15 spot (Podkolzin, Caufield, Krebs etc.)?

— Patrick Gilbert (@Pat_Gilbert17) August 25, 2019

I would prefer Batherson and Olofsson, as they are where we want those prospects to be in two years. So you shave two years off your wait time and I’m notorious for my hatred of wasting roster space on a three- or four-year guy.

*

12 team league G, A, PPP, +/-, PIM

I keep 2 of 3

Tarasenko
Huberdeau
Laine

— TheCommishFSC (@TheCommishFSC) August 25, 2019

This one is tough. All I know for sure is that I wouldn’t drop Huberdeau. But Tarasenko and Laine are each coming off of poor seasons and both could really light it up. And both can score 40 goals (hell, Laine can score 50). But in leagues with very few keepers, I don’t wrestle with these decisions. If you drop a Laine you can always draft a Laine. The pool of players available at the draft is almost like a re-draft (frankly I don’t understand keeping anything less than 12 – may as well not have a keeper at all). But I digress. While I do believe Laine will rebound…Tarasenko already has rebounded. Tarasenko posted 45 points (22 goals) in his last 38 games and a further 17 points in 26 playoff games. You really do need to drop Laine, even though all those goals he could score may end up burning you.

*

Inside the Fantasy Guide on page 28 are instructions on how you can win a FREE Google Home. Unfortunately, international readers, I’m only shipping this within North America. On page 28 I noted the odds of winning as one in 1000, but that was based on the number of entries. So far there are about “55” entries, which means the odds of winning are one in…55! Thank you to the 55 people who have entered.

*

See you next Monday