Ramblings: Canadian Tire Centre Fire, Perry No Longer Prime (June 13)

by Ian Gooding on June 13, 2018
  • Hockey Rambling
  • Ramblings: Canadian Tire Centre Fire, Perry No Longer Prime (June 13)


Canadian Tire Centre Fire, Perry No Longer Prime, plus more…

I thought this was going to be a slow news day… but then this report surfaced.
 


Wow. Just wow. You think your team has problems? They don’t even come close to what has happened in Ottawa this past season, what with this news. We already knew that the Senators were a team in turmoil with the on-ice performance and the off-ice campaign to oust Eugene Melnyk as owner. But those are the kinds of problems that aren’t all that uncommon throughout the league. Garden variety stuff. This, though, I can’t even begin to describe. Okay, maybe I’ll try.

At the very least, one of Mike Hoffman or Erik Karlsson will be traded. It is almost certain to be Hoffman, who regardless of his role in this situation, will have a difficult time returning to the Senators’ dressing room given his association to the alleged perpetrator. Given the enormity of the tire fire in Ottawa, there has to be an even stronger possibility than ever before Karlsson will be traded as well. After the season he went through both professionally and personally, he could use a fresh start in a new locale. In fact the Sens might have to go into full tear-down-and-rebuild mode here, which could include shopping Mark Stone and even Matt Duchene.

Just think… just one short year ago, the Senators were an overtime goal away from reaching the Stanley Cup Final. I don’t know if I’ve seen a team fall this fast or this hard in one season. This could be a very different looking team next season – one that already has the worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup.

So if the Sens have no choice but to trade Hoffman, then they won’t be receiving full market value. So what about Hoffman fantasy owners??? (meekly raises hand) For one, we have to let due process play out. It’s too early to assume that something like this will ruin Hoffman’s career. If the guy in the next section could revive his NHL career, then theoretically so could Hoffman even if the allegations are true. Stating the obvious, though, this news won’t help Hoffman’s fantasy value in any way. But a trade could potentially help it. That trade will be difficult to orchestrate before the draft, given the uncertainty of this situation.  

One final thought. Even though I am attempting to cover this story from a fantasy perspective, I understand that harassment – even online – is a much greater societal issue than a fantasy team. And nothing could compare to the sadness of losing a child. We know that the Karlssons were victims of both this past season, so hopefully they are able to move forward from what has been an unbelievably trying year.

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Regardless of your perception of Slava Voynov, he could be back in the NHL next season, according to Elliotte Friedman. See his report below for details of what a Voynov return could look like.
 


Signing Voynov would both improve a team and be bad for its PR. In case you’re wondering if losing five years of his six-year, $25 million contract was enough punishment, keep in mind that he was earning the equivalent of $4.5 million per season over in the KHL (plus possible bonuses and endorsements). Dobber covered him in his last Ramblings, so there’s not much else that I will add here. Except that he was a keeper player that I lost because of his misdeed. And I managed to recover, eventually winning that league anyway.

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The team hasn’t announced it yet, but the Coyotes have reportedly signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson to an eight-year extension. We can’t discuss what that means for salary cap teams yet because dollar amounts have not been released. Or maybe I’ll wait for a slower news day to discuss OEL.

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As I try to fill the summer void with fantasy hockey thoughts, I look for players in the news and/or players that simply pop into my head for no reason. At the moment I’m focusing on season recaps, but will shift toward projections once the summer transactions have taken place.

Corey Perry’s cap hit currently sits at $8.63 million, which makes him difficult for the Ducks to trade. He’s also listed as the Ducks’ top buyout candidate in this article on Western Conference buyout candidates from theScore. Now 33 years old, Perry would be higher than 25th on TSN’s Trade Bait board if not for the salary, which is due for another three years. With diminishing returns, Perry is not someone you’d want to invest in a salary cap league. But does he still hold value in other fantasy leagues?

It’s hard to believe that it’s already been seven years since Perry was fantasy hockey’s top right wing and the Hart Trophy winner. That season he dominated numerous categories, including goals (50), assists (48), penalty minutes (104), power-play points (31), and shots on goal (290). Since then, the only season he has come close to that total is 2013-14, when he posted 43 goals, 39 assists, a plus-32 ranking, and 280 shots on goal.

Things have gotten decidedly worse since then, though. The 2017-18 season was the second consecutive campaign in which Perry’s goal and point totals declined. Perry has dropped from 62 points to 53 points to 49 points, but his goal total has sagged even further, from 34 goals to 19 goals to 17 goals.

The one silver lining is that Perry’s points-per-game average improved slightly from 0.65 in 2016-17 to 0.69, due to his 11 games missed in 2017-18. Moreover, his goals-per-game was around the same. Still, the points-per-game total placed him in the same company as Ryan Spooner, Evander Kane, David Krejci, Bo Horvat, and Nazem Kadri. Useful fantasy players – but none currently carry the same star power as Perry.

In a multicategory fantasy league that counts goals, assists, plus/minus, penalty minutes, power-play points, and shots on goal, Perry fits in among this group of players:

 

Rank

G

A

+/-

PIM

PPP

SOG

Kyle Palmieri

129

24

20

-1

30

23

181

Mikko Koivu

131

14

31

9

46

14

170

Corey Perry

132

17

32

-4

71

11

168

Jordan Eberle

133

25

34

5

21

10

183

J.T. Miller

134

23

35

-4

40

18

143


Again, useful fantasy players – but not stars. Perry’s value in this particular format is actually boosted by his penalty minute total, as only Koivu has a lower goal total, only Eberle has a lower power-play-point total, and only Miller has a lower shot total out of the group. Remove the penalty minute category and his value sinks even further.

Another concerning stat about Perry: he failed to record a point and was a minus-5 as the Ducks were swept at the hands of the Sharks.

Perry’s ADP in Yahoo leagues in 2017-18 was 64.2. Given the group of players around him, Perry should definitely be drafted outside of the top 100 in 2017-18, assuming his situation remains the same. He’s still a useful player in many fantasy leagues, but be careful that you’re not paying a premium for the name.

One more comparison (since I enjoyed reading Cliffy’s comparisons last night in his Ramblings):

Player A: 17 G, 32 A,-4, 11 PPP, 168 SOG

Player B: 16 G, 37 A, +1, 9 PPP, 159 SOG

Player A is Perry. Player B is Paul Stastny. Remarkably similar stat lines last season, aren’t they? (Although it’s understood that Stastny played in 11 more games.)

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Finally, on a positive note… some pictures from the Stanley Cup parade in Washington.
 


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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

 

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