Ramblings: Petry, Klefbom and Vatanen are Undervalued Blue Line Options (Feb 23)

steve laidlaw

2018-02-23

 

Shea Weber has been ruled out for the season and Carey Price is now out with a concussion. The tank is on in Montreal! It would be nonsense to say this is intentional on the Canadiens’ part. They have way too much money invested in these two to play games. They are out because they are really hurt.

In Price’s case, a concussion might somehow be more appealing than another knee injury. The last thing you want is your 30-year-old goaltender, who’s eight-year $84M deal hasn’t even kicked in yet, to start suffering chronic injuries. It’s also not good. Silver lining: we get the Niemi-ssance!

Antti Niemi has actually played well for the Canadiens, but if you’re going to lose your top two players, it’s nice to have such a volatile option in net to thrust you into the tanking race. So no, I cannot recommend using Niemi. If you do it, you are bolder than I. Also, Charlie Lindgren is back in the mix. Read more about him here.

As for Weber, we’re looking at either a misdiagnosis of his injury, or a poor rehabilitation plan. Either way, he’s headed for surgery and won’t be back until next season. I wonder if heads will roll over this one. The good news, they’ll be able to jump on the surgery earlier than had this occurred during a playoff run, which increases the odds of him being ready to start next season. The bad news, what does foot surgery do to an already testudinal defenseman?

With Weber out we’ll see Jeff Petry continue to be a lively option as Montreal’s number one defenseman. Since Weber went down Petry is averaging 25 minutes a night and has put up seven goals, 18 points, nine PPP and 85 SOG in 27 games. He’s also a minus-13 in that stretch, but I’m a believer in the “punt plus/minus” strategy.

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You know it’s trade season when teams are holding players out of the lineup. Both Rick Nash and Michael Grabner were benched to keep them healthy in advance of the trade deadline. And indeed, Grabner ended up being dealt late last night. You can find the fantasy impact of that here. With those two out we’ve got a decent snapshot of what lines will look like down the stretch:

#1           23.7%    HAYES,KEVIN – MILLER,J.T. – ZUCCARELLO,MATS

#2           22.8%    BUCHNEVICH,PAVEL – VESEY,JIMMY – ZIBANEJAD,MIKA

#3           21.9%    CAREY,PAUL – DESHARNAIS,DAVID – FAST,JESPER

#4           16.7%    HOLLAND,PETER – LETTIERI,VINNI – MCLEOD,CODY

 

That lineup could be worse. They are also expected to get Chris Kreider back on the top line with Pavel Buchnevich and Mika Zibanejad soon. That line can remain a hub for fantasy owners even if the rest of the squad drowns.

Brady Skjei has been gobbling up top power play minutes without much success. Does Tony DeAngelo get a spin here? He’s only 22 but is on his third franchise.

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Kevin Fiala pulls off the Kucherov in traffic:

 

I’m not convinced that he meant to do that, but holy hell if he did! Fiala has slowed down again with four points in the past nine games. He is comfortably trending towards that tweener 55-point zone, where he’s on the borderline of fantasy relevance. He’ll get hot for a bit, and then cool off to waiver wire zone. The size of your league will determine whether he’s worth keeping around.

Fiala’s linemate, Craig Smith, might be the better own. He gets the second line minutes with Fiala and Kyle Turris, but also sees time as the net-front man on the top PP unit with the big guns. Smith has points in six straight. He’s also on track for a higher shot volume (235) than Fiala (188). I still lean Fiala, but Smith is making a case.

Viktor Arvidsson is having a big second half. Since the bye week he has 15 points in 16 games and is pumping his usually obscene shot volume.

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Petr Mrazek with a solid Flyer debut stopping 19 of 20 against the Blue Jackets. Mind you, part of the appeal of Mrazek was that he wouldn’t have to do quite so much for a Flyers club playing good hockey in the second half.

No Travis Konecny for the Flyers. He’s day-to-day with a foot injury after taking a shot to the foot the other night. Shouldn’t cost him much time but is it enough to derail what has been a breakout second half clicking on the top line? Michael Raffl skated in his spot but was held off the board. Good sign for Konecny.

With Konecny out, the Flyers are now down their top two RW with Simmonds also out 2-3 weeks. Nolan Patrick has power-play goals in back-to-back games since Simmonds went down. I’ve jumped on Patrick in one league and am considering doing it in all my leagues.

Keeper leaguers have to be particularly excited about what Patrick is flashing in that net-front role. Is it something he could fill in years to come? Simmonds has one more year on his steal of a deal, and then hits unrestricted free agency at 30. The Flyers should move on at that point and let someone else pay for his twilight years. Simmonds is already showing signs of wear. He remains the league’s premiere net-front man, but guys who play as he does break down quickly. This season’s injuries are an indication of that. Someone is going to give Simmonds a boatload of money, and much like the Lucic deal, it will be regrettable before the ink has even dried.

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Speaking of regrettable deals, word is that the Islanders are nearing a contract extension with Josh Bailey in the neighbourhood of $5M annually for six seasons. What excellent timing for Bailey to have a career year. How many guys has John Tavares gotten paid?

PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson, Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo. What a list! It doesn’t even include Thomas Vanek who was:

A) established as a star before Tavares.

B) didn’t even last long enough with the Islanders for them to walk away from him in free agency.

None of those guys lived up to their deals, although most of them were productive in the first season or two. The point is, long-term pacts for support players entering their 30’s don’t usually work out! Didn’t they learn this lesson from their signing of Andrew Ladd?

Bailey will be 29 at the start of next season, meaning the cliff is rapidly approaching. Bailey is clearly talented and has flashed top line potential in the past, but his career 5-on-5 scoring rate of 1.63 is one indicative of a mid-line player. It’s likely he is a decent player building off chemistry with a superstar, some hot shooting and a huge bump in power-play production (he has 28 PP points already!)

Don’t pay Bailey, find the next Bailey. You’ve done it before! And with varying types of players You have intriguing winger prospects like Josh Ho-Sang, Michael Dal Colle, and Kieffer Bellows. Build yourself another one! You can’t use the argument that Bailey’s contract is the tax to keep Tavares. Wasn’t that the point of giving Cal Clutterbuck an exorbitant deal?  There’s no way they can know if this will make a difference or not.

Far be it for me to suggest taking money out of a player’s pocket. Ideally, there would be no cap and teams could spend money frivolously. In a cap system, you have to make ruthless decisions. Frankly, unfair decisions.

Where does this lead for fantasy owners? If you connect the dots, I’m suggesting that Bailey’s production is going to fall off in coming years. Maybe Tavares will be enough to buoy him into his 30’s but we’ve already seen Bailey’s numbers regress. He has 12 points in 18 games since the start of January. He’s shooting only 7.9% in those two months. This is much closer to the player we expected Bailey to be and should going forward.  

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Uh oh, Auston Matthews left late in last night’s game with what appeared to be a shoulder injury. No updates on his condition yet. Here is the suspected injury:

 

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Leon Draisaitl abused the Avalanche last night:

 

And then on the OT winner:

 

Oscar Klefbom is showing more signs of life. Everything seems to indicate he has been playing hurt all year, except for the time he sat out with injury. Just call this season a write off and approach next season with optimism. Remember, we (at least I) thought he could be a 50-point defenseman this season. Obviously, that was a pipe dream. Perhaps next season, if healthy. Klefbom has six points and 30 SOG in the last 10 games.

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Sami Vatanen has displaced Will Butcher on the top PP unit in New Jersey the past few weeks. The results have gone exactly as you’d expect. Vatanen has seven points in the last seven games, while Butcher has one point in the last 11 games.

I highly recommend using Vatanen in the near term, especially with Taylor Hall as hot as he is. The star forward has points in each of his last 20 games. We’re talking MVP level play. Vatanen is available in over 80% of Yahoo leagues.

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Mark Stone has 10 points in eight games since returning from injury. He remains on pace for over 75 points despite missing nine games. The tire fire in Ottawa is distracting from the absurd season he is having.

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Aaron Dell has allowed 23 goals in his last five games. Maybe take a pass on those Dell upgrades.

Tomas Hertl skated over 21 minutes in his return to the Sharks lineup, firing six SOG. I really like the line with Hertl, Logan Couture and Kevin Labanc, though they went quiet with Hertl out. Perhaps now that he’s back they get going again. Hertl has been maligned by a low on-ice shooting percentage in need of some regression too.

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Jon Gillies moved to 2-0 as a starter, winning his first of the season with a 35-save performance against the Coyotes. Safe to say he will get another look if Mike Smith remains out.

Sam Bennett had a two-point night displacing Micheal Ferland on the top line. Can this get Bennett going? Maybe. After all, Gaudreau is the league’s second leading scorer. I won’t hold my breath. Bennett hasn’t shown much as a pro, though to be fair, he is only 21.

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Minor deal for the Bruins and Panthers sending Frank Vatrano to Florida in exchange for a 2018 third-round pick.

Boston recoups a draft pick in the same round as they gave up to acquire Nick Holden, so they essentially trade Vatrano and Rob O’Gara for a rental of Holden. That may still be an overpay.

In Florida, Vatrano gets a fresh start. It’s impossible to understate how excited we were about him just a couple of seasons ago. As a 21-year-old rookie pro, Vatrano scored 36 goals and 55 points in 36 AHL games, splitting time between the AHL and NHL. He didn’t have the same success at the NHL level posting only eight goals and 11 points 39 NHL games, skating limited minutes, but he did demonstrate a penchant for shot volume averaging 2.5 SOG per game. He ran into injuries the past two seasons and eventually got surpassed on the depth chart by an exciting group of rookies including Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork. You can’t totally blame Vatrano for struggling given the circumstances.

There’s some upside for Vatrano if he can find chemistry on a scoring line. We’ll see how much of a shot he gets. Even on a shallow Florida team regularly rolling out an enforcer in Michael Haley there isn’t much room for Vatrano. They are in the midst of giving chances to youngsters like Connor Brickley, Denis Malgin, Maxim Mamin and Jared McCann. None of those players are insurmountable, but they offer competition. It’s also likely that Vatrano would have at least one of those guys as a linemate if he were to stick, which doesn’t exactly enhance his situation. Still, he escapes the press box in Boston and could find himself with Jonathan Huberdeau or Sasha Barkov feeding him pucks.

It’s worth noting that the Panthers have signed a couple of European tweeners in Henrik Haapala and Sebastian Repo only to send them back overseas when they couldn’t make room for them. Adding another forward into the mix is another hurdle for getting these guys back over. The Panthers did succeed with Evgeni Dadonov though.

Vatrano is a nice low-cost bet for Florida. It’s one more reminiscent of the Computer Boys era. You can’t help but bring up how they had two parts of one of the league’s best lines in Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault and literally gave them away in order to protect Alex Petrovic. Woof. Would they have been in on Vatrano had they kept Marchessault and/or Smith?

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Thanks for reading! You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

18 Comments

  1. Invictus350 2018-02-23 at 02:22

    7-1 Preds… Johansen with a goal and assist but only even :/ idk why but it irks me when they get a point but not a +1 for it.

    • Joe Carr 2018-02-23 at 10:03

      my bug-a-boo is that power play goals don’t affect the minus of the team that let the goal in but does affect the goalies sv pct and gaa. First world problems.

  2. Joe Carr 2018-02-23 at 08:25

    Bennett may have only replaced Ferland based on Ferland’s injury. His line placement may hinge on Ferland’s availability

  3. Jerry Galleano 2018-02-23 at 08:44

    “testudinal” Great word! I had to look it up.

  4. starz31 2018-02-23 at 10:19

    I agree on the Isles maybe poorly allocating their cap with resigning an aging Bailey, and I think it’s fair to compare that to a young cap-controlled player. But in terms of production value and the market, Isles probably are getting a deal on Bailey. He could have gotten more than that in the open market and Isles would have to pay more than that if they wanted to replace him through free agency.
    At the end of the day, it’s tough to be be upset keeping a guy who has always been here, genuinely enjoys Long Island, and wants to to stay here. There’s something to be said for that…I think.
    Tavares has previously said that he hopes the team keeps Bailey, so I can’t see this hurting those discussions. Bailey and JT are the longest tenured Islanders.

    • steve laidlaw 2018-02-23 at 12:12

      It’s true, they likely did leverage that into getting him for a smaller cap hit than free market. It’s less the money than the term that concerns me though. You don’t want to be paying for seasons 33-35. I’d like to see teams get more aggressive with bigger cash outlays for fewer seasons. Could they have gotten Bailey for something in the $6.5M range on a four-year deal?

      This deal would make more sense if they were in a “win now” situation where kicking the can down the road makes sense in order to keep talent and flexibility to win in the present. The Islanders aren’t even willing to part with their extra picks to try to win a playoff race they are struggling to stay in. But they can afford to sign veterans? Seems a bit conflicting.

      • starz31 2018-02-23 at 12:21

        Speaking to the choir there among Islander fans. They’ve been borderline nuts about how little Snow is doing, at least publicly, in trying to improve the team now. In my eyes, priority is keeping Tavares so they should be trying to improve the team now and next year. Maybe Snow thinks he can make a trade before the draft, I don’t know. They’re also pretty high on Bellows who could be a nice piece next to Barzal next year. But offense is not their problem.

        • MarkRM16 2018-02-23 at 13:41

          I think you’d agree that it would make more sense to try and re-sign Tavares before re-signing Bailey. If Tavares does leave, you’re stuck with an overpaid winger that has only had success for one season next to one of the League’s best players. Take Tavares out of the fold, and you’re stuck with an expensive, mediocre winger whose scoring would plummet. Every season there are a few players like Bailey that suddenly live up to expectations, a team overpays them, and they deteriorate quickly.
          Clearly, what the Isles need are upgrades in net and on the blueline, not an overpaid winger that will be turning 29 at the start of the 2018-19 season. The Isles are stacked with talented, young forwards that are on ELCs or cheap contracts. The Isles should take advantage of that while they can. That cap room and salary should be spent elsewhere.

          • starz31 2018-02-23 at 13:52

            I agree with all of this. I think the Bailey move is defensible in that by getting him to sign early, they’re saving $1-2 million a year if he went to market. BUT, I agree that they need to use that money elsewhere. If it helps them resign Tavares, I think it’s a worthy gamble. I’m not too worried about goal-tending, since I think they can get by with another veteran stop-gap like they have used Halak until one of their two prospects is ready; their defense and defensive system is a big problem and needs addressing.

          • starz31 2018-02-23 at 13:53

            I agree with all of this. I think the Bailey move is defensible in that by getting him to sign early, they’re saving $1-2 million a year if he went to market. BUT, I agree that they need to use that money elsewhere. If it helps them resign Tavares, then it was a worthy gamble. I’m not too worried about goal-tending, since I think they can get by with another veteran stop-gap like they have used Halak until one of their two prospects is ready; their defense and defensive system is a big problem and needs addressing.

            EDIT: the team is pretty confident they’re resigning Tavares. I still think it’s 75% likely that he does, but that’s less than it was two months ago.

          • MarkRM16 2018-02-23 at 18:42

            Re-signing Bailey definitely does show Tavares that the Isles want to keep him there to continue playing with Bailey and that they’ll spend the money necessary to do so, but Bailey is worth nowhere near what he’ll be paid. 3 years for $4m would be fair, IMO.
            On D, they need a Boychuk clone that can replace what Hamonic gave them – a defensively sound D with some sandpaper. Who? I can’t think of anybody off the top of my head. You? They could use Ho-Sang as a trade chip unless he’s able to lock down a full-time spot soon.

  5. Striker 2018-02-23 at 11:03

    Bailey’s situation is the NHL’s UFA model. Teams are still paying veterans heading to UFA status a ton of money for experience & leadership.

    Smith & Marchesseault were moved out as Florida has an internal budget & wanted Smith’s contract off the books & the cost for that was Marchesseault. Few in Florida cares, no team losses more money & now with new ownership in Carolina & that purchase agreement carrying a 7 year commitment starting next season to keep the Hurricanes in Carolina Florida moved to the top of the relocation list. You would assume Viola tires of losing 16+ mil annually & this team could very well start playing in Quebec City the season after the next lockout, 21-22 or when ever they return.

    • MarkRM16 2018-02-23 at 13:31

      Could Viola be using the losses from the Panthers for tax purposes? I’ve heard of businessmen that have several companies keep one running at a loss because it somehow helps their overall fiscal status. How? I have no idea.

      I’ve been waiting for years now for the NHL to wake up and relocate the Panthers. For all the credit Bettman receives as some sort of business genius, he insists on letting teams bleed money for years, or decades, before facilitating a move, like Atlanta-Winnipeg. What would the League’s coffers look like if the Panthers had been relocated to Quebec years ago, to a genuine hockey market that’s been waiting decades for a team?

      Obviously, the same idiocy applies to the tire fire in Arizona. If the League wants a team in Seattle or LV, don’t water down the player pool even more via expansion, relocate the Coyotes!

      • Striker 2018-02-24 at 15:12

        Viola isn’t deliberately trying to lose money it’s an attendance, corporate sponsorship local TV rights issue, simple supply & demand economics.

        Bettman is & has been a genius, a very bright man with a long term vision. The situation in Atlanta was odd, very little efforts made to keep the Thrashers there but economics of the time came into play. This is all about setting the proper national US footprint for the next NHL TV contract which is up now with NBC in 3 years. It’s about having a presence in the largest US TV markets with out them that TV package is unattainable & the game needs to grow & develop in these markets as it is.

        The NHL will be getting their 1st major national cable TV deal. It will pale compared to the MLB, NBS or NFL but compared to any previous deal it will dwarf it by billions.

        No fast growing sport in the world, the NHL has built either by its self or with it’s corporate sponsors 1000’s of arena’s all over the US & expanded the NCAA significantly & their will soon be a western division of the NCAA Div 1 program.

        The # of kids playing minor hockey in the US now dwarfs Canada significantly & the tip of the iceberg on NHL US superstars is just starting. In 5 years US stars will dominate the game & the future growth for the NHL is astounding.

        That’s all Bettman, he has grown the business exponentially not only for the NHL but world wide & it has a ton of growth still over the next 20 to 30 years. No other sports is better suited to be played any where in the world.

        I assume Florida will be moved following the next lock out & I assume that will be Quebec city but their are numerous other possibilities.

        • Okierim A 2018-02-24 at 17:18

          Houston might be next, plenty of room and market space in Texas between Dallas and Houston

          • Striker 2018-02-24 at 18:24

            Absolutely, I would assume them & Kansas City are very viable options.

  6. Allan Phillips 2018-02-23 at 12:18

    “Testudinal”????? Really? Wow. You are now officially the Howard Cosell of Dobberhockey.

    • Allan Phillips 2018-02-23 at 12:22

      That’s a good thing…..

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