Wednesday, Aug. 26

Neil Parker

2015-08-26

Mark Giordano - USA Today Sports Images

 

A long look at the Pittsburgh Penguins, Johan Franzen news and Mark Giordano re-ups with the Calgary Flames …

 

 

 

Just a quick housekeeping note, the Dobber Hockey App will be fixed soon, in case you missed the tweet.

 

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Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford and head coach Mike Johnston leaked some news Tuesday before the team's annual alumni golf tournament.

Jonthan Bombulie shared, and Josh Yohe offered his take.

Phil Kessel will open training camp with Sidney Crosby, while Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist will skate together. The left side of both lines appears wide open.

Pascal Dupuis is essentially two years removed from professional hockey, and he is 36. You'll notice in the articles the time off was noted by Johnston.

Beau Bennett and David Perron were mentioned as candidates to flip wings and skate on the left side of one of the top two lines. Yohe made an insightful mention of Chris Kunitz's absence from the conversation.

While mentioning it could be viewed as a stabbing attempt at evoking some suspense, the reality is Kunitz is almost certain to play with Crosby.

Another interesting tidbit from Rutherford was about Sergei Plotnikov arriving in Pittsburgh early and accustoming himself to North America. Bombulie reiterated the patience stance the organization is expected to take with the 25-year-old Russian.

This isn't the top-six battle in Pittsburgh it once was, though, as the third line should be strong this season, too. There might not be the significant drop off there was in the past.

Nick Bonino has nice possession numbers and brings an offensive element to the table. He'll also likely face weaker competition than he did last season.

Still, unless Bennett grabs a scoring role, he seems like a lock for Bonino's flank with Dupuis manning the opposite side. And all three would have just a modest offensive ceiling.

The wrinkle will likely come when Plotnikov settles in and proves he's too good for the American Hockey League. Plus, Eric Fehr will return at some point midseason, too.

To unpack it all, Pittsburgh's top-nine forwards are going to be strong, especially when Fehr returns. In most virtual leagues, their third line isn't going to be relevant, though. Additionally, just because everything looks good on paper doesn't mean we should expect large jumps in production from anyone.

Instead, slight upticks, or returns to previous numbers are likely.

Kessel is a dark horse candidate to lead the league in goals, and he could have a career year.

Year 2 with Pittsburgh should be more kind to Hornqvist and Perron in fantasy terms. They're also likely to be the two players who can return the biggest values during draft this fall.

Crosby and Malkin are going to be point-per-game players, or at least very close to it.

Kunitz is on the decline, and there are only so many goals to go around. His stock is losing luster. Although, his sharp statistical drop-off might be another year away.

Dupuis and Bennett are speculative late-round targets who could see a boost in value, if they're being utilized in a top-six role.

Bonino is a tough rank. 45 points is within reach, but expect a lot of peaks and valleys in season. He likely won't warrant a year-long roster spot in 12-teamers.

Plotnikov and Fehr are stash candidate in cavernous leagues. Though, you'll want to keep tabs on their pending additions to the lineup. It isn't out of the question for Pittsburgh to shift to a more balanced three-line attack, at times during the season.

On that note, a parting blow, which was also brought up by Johnston in the articles, we should expect plenty of lineup tinkering throughout the season. Perhaps a trio hits and they stick all year. The reality, though, is a few injuries shake things up and a number of players flip flop from line to line.

At the same time, it wouldn't be shocking to see Crosby-Kessel and Malkin-Hornqvist stick as duos for the majority of the year. The left wingers will likely be the most fluid.

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Johan Franzen is determined to return for the 2015-16 season. While he has resumed skating over the past week, it isn't a slam dunk he'll be cleared for contact.

"My expectations and hopes are he's going to be cleared when he takes his physical at camp," Holland said. "Ultimately, it's in the hands of Dr. Kutcher."

Though, even if he is cleared, contact drills and then preseason games will be the first real hockey the 35-year-old winger will have played since January.

How fantasy relevant is the The Mule actually?

He has been limited to 87 games over the past two seasons, has never cracked 60 points, and he is six years removed from his lone 30-goal season. Plus, he was averaging his fewest minutes last year since the 2006-07 season.

Also, where does he fit in new coach Jeff Blashill's plans?

Franzen has been dubbed an injury risk for a long time, and he has suffered multiple concussions. It is too early to say he doesn't warrant a draft pick or roster spot, but you should take a long look at alternatives before tying your wagon to his fake stock.

I'm all about targeting players bouncing back from injuries, but good health, a clearly defined role and reliable production are keys for a bounce-back year. A case against each can be made for Franzen.

Additionally, if you're swinging for the fences in the late rounds, aim for a player with a higher ceiling. Sam Gagner, Chris Stewart, Alex Burmistrov, Brett Connolly and Micheal Ferland are all outside my top-50 right wingers, and Franzen received a courtesy rank at 66.

In fact, the only way I would draft him was if he was going to be placed on injured reserve to start the season. Then you could stash him easier, and take a wait-and-see approach.

 

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The big news out of the NHL doesn't have a significant fantasy impact, but should help solidify the best blue line in the league for six more years.

Is there a better blue line in the league?

Mark Giordano inked a six-year, $40.5 million contract extension with a $6.75 million annual cap hit.

Calgary currently has $2,194,934 available in cap space with a full roster, according to General Fanager. But, Giordano's deal doesn't kick in until next season, which is when Kris Russell, Jiri Hudler, Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo and David Jones all become unrestricted free agents, and Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Joe Colborne will become restricted free agents.

The Flames will have some difficult decisions to make, and it is likely Russell, Jones and one of the goalies are casualties. Potentially, Colborne, although, he remains under team control, so that will be an interesting situation.

This was the right move for Calgary, they've made Giordano their captain, and he has been a key cog for their quick rebound. He has 95 points over his past 125 games with a plus-25 rating, 110 penalty minutes, and the rearguard has respectable possession numbers despite starting a significantly high amount of shifts in the defensive zone.

Entering his age-32 season, Giordano will still have a few more years of high-end play, although he should remain a solid rearguard through the end of the contract.

Injuries have been the issue for him, and he is undersized, although, the merits of size aren't as significant as they once were. I only bring it up in relation to his injuries. Whether there is a connection or not is just speculation, but he has missed time in each of the last three full seasons.

He logs big minutes against the best players in the league, and he plays bigger than his frame. Injuries are somewhat fluky, but given the number Girodano has endured during his career, it is time to view them as part of the package. And playing a full season shouldn't be expect, it should be viewed as a bonus.

I've currently ranked Giordano seventh among blue liners, and he'll out produce that with a full season. However, 60 to 70 games of Giordano should land him around 10th overall, but replacement level is high among rearguards, so I have no problem adding the injury risk to the saddle.

 

 

 

10 Comments

  1. Rick Roos 2015-08-26 at 12:40

    The way you painted Franzen is somewhat misleading, as although he's an unquestioned band-aid boy, his scoring pace since 2008-09 is 61.6 points per 82 games.  The question is whether the new coaching regime will go with the mule parked in front of the net in PP1, as if that doesn't happen then Franze's value takes a big hit.

  2. Neil Parker 2015-08-26 at 12:57

    What does 2008-09 have to do with 2015-16?

    No disrespect, I'm just curious what relevance statistics from seven years ago have? If anything, all they do is further highlight Franzen's decline.

    • Rick Roos 2015-08-26 at 13:27

      Actually, even last season his scoring pace was at 55.  And in 2013-14 it was 62.  What I was getting at is Franzen might still be a good option for teams with deep benches or IRs, so you can afford to stash him there if/when he misses a chunk of games and then put him back into the line-up when he's healthy to enjoy his surprising still decent production.  

      • Neil Parker 2015-08-26 at 13:49

        If he makes it back, he’ll likely have some strong stretches. Really, every player has value in some format.

  3. mike hess 2015-08-26 at 13:29

    I agree with you..'The Mule' is so injury prone that "contract drills" would be more in line for him than contact drills…..LOL

  4. Bill Daw 2015-08-26 at 14:02

    "Crosby and Malkin are going to be point-per-game players, or at least very close to it"

    Aren't they always over a point a game?  Seems a little conservative…

    • Neil Parker 2015-08-26 at 14:11

      It was another way of saying more of the same from them – high floor.

      You're right, though, I just don't expect either to suddenly burst out and score 115 points.

  5. Ryan Taylor 2015-08-26 at 15:13

    Put me as someone who WOULD be shocked if Crosby-Kessel Malkin-Hornqvist stuck as duo's all season.  I don't think it will take long to figure out the Crosby-Hornqvist and Malkin-Kessel are much more effective tandems.

  6. Woodrow 2015-08-28 at 13:49

    I'm surprised there has not been much said about what Giordano will be like in the last 3-4 years of his contract. He's missed signifcant time in 3 of the last 4 years. By the time Giordano is 36, I have to wonder what his value would still be to Calgary and fantasy hockey. I think he'll be great for the first 3 years of his contract and from there on it's a crap shoot.

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