0.27 (M.P.)

2011-12

0.78 (A.L.)

0.71 (M.P.)

0.92 (A.L.)

1.31 (M.P.)

0.30 (A.L.)

0.49 (M.P.)

3.23 (A.L.)

3.62 (M.P.)

0.14 (A.L.)

0.16 (M.P.)

2010-11

0.48 (A.L.)

1.05 (M.P.)

0.84 (A.L.)

1.81 (M.P.)

0.55 (A.L.)

0.35 (M.P.)

2.40 (A.L.)

3.02 (M.P.)

0.22 (A.L.)

0.21 (M.P.)

As noted above, the focus this week is straight points leagues; however, since some readers own one or both players in multi-cat formats I've included those stats as well. And what's interesting is MaxPac fared better in Hits than I'd imagined, although he's trending down (and in PIM as well). Meanwhile, Ladd's Hits excellence only emerged two seasons ago, which is interesting since that's also when his production increased – a nice win-win.

Pacioretty's Shots averages are well aligned with his production, and have held consistent enough to suggest we should expect more of the same from him in 2014-15. Meanwhile, Ladd's best Shots average coincided with only his third highest career point total. On one hand it's good that he's produced so well over the past two seasons despite not shooting the puck a lot; but that also makes it harder to forecast his production for 2014-15 and beyond.

Ladd has fared poorly in PP points of late, although for what it's worth that largely correlated with the team finishing 25th and 30th in the entire NHL in PP conversion % over these past two seasons, which in turn means there's realistic room for his output to improve. And the fact that Pacioretty followed his 2012-13 jump in PP production with a similar average in 2013-14 bodes well going forward, although certainly we'll look at his 5×4 IPP to make sure it wasn't out of line.

Luck-Based Metrics

It's not reassuring that Ladd posted a higher than average Personal Shooting % in 2012-13, although as we can see he also had an identical percentage in 2010-11. What's more, had he shot at his 12.2% career number in 2012-13, that would've meant only three fewer goals. On the other hand, here yet again there are no concerns with Pacioretty, as he's been productive in seasons where he shot more than, similar to, and less than his 11.1% career average.

Although Ladd's 1021 PDO for 2012-13 fell within what's considered the "normal" range of 970-1030, it was 35 points higher than the average of his three other most recent seasons. What's more, his 5×5 IPP has been consistently above 70%. And although that suggests he should be able to keep up a similar IPP pace, it also signifies there's little room for improvement. Taken as a whole, his 2012-13 season does look more and more like at least somewhat of an outlier.

Meanwhile, there are no reasons for concern among Pacioretty's PDO and IPP data either, as although he had a much higher than average PDO in 2013-14, it came with a comparatively low – for him – 5×4 IPP. And while his IPPs for 2012-13 were both quite high, his PDO was a modest 986. And in 2011-12 no numbers stuck out as unusually high.

Value vs. Cost/Injuries

Both players are LW-only eligible in Yahoo, with Pacioretty being owned in 99% of Yahoo leagues, compared to roughly 80% for Ladd. And although Pacioretty was being selected about 80 picks ahead of Ladd in Yahoo drafts, he went 35 picks earlier in the DobberHockey Experts League, which counts Hits as one of only six offensive (nine total) categories.

Also impacting value vs. cost is what I call the "Habs factor", where players – like Pacioretty – on high profile teams (Montreal, Toronto, Chicago, Rangers, etc.) often end up being picked earlier than they should, due to a combination of name recognition and dedicated, widespread fan support. Of course there's no such issue for Ladd and other players on Winnipeg, which has a far more localized fan base.

Therefore, although Pacioretty is very likely to outpoint Ladd in 2014-15, Ladd might just end up giving your team better value in a points only league if you got him dozens of picks later in your draft. What's more, injury history significantly favors Ladd due to him having missed fewer combined games (five total) in the past six seasons than Pacioretty has missed on average (six) in his past three seasons.

Who Wins?

Perhaps more so than in any other Cage Match I've done, I'm left feeling quite confident about the point totals each player should produce in 2014-15, with Ladd most likely tallying roughly 55 (in 82 games) and Pacioretty roughly 65 (in 75 or so games). Thus, the final points gap between them should be about ten, although it could be as low as a handful (maybe Pacioretty only gets 62 and Ladd climbs to 57) or as high as 15 (if Ladd dips to 52 and Pacioretty rises to 67)

Due to Pacioretty's recognition from being on the Habs and his goal scoring notoriety (which I've found does affect value in points-only pools despite goals not being worth more than assists), his perceived value to his owner likely would be well more than ten or so points greater than Ladd's. Thus, I would go so far as to recommend that Pacioretty owners look into moving him for Ladd in points only leagues on the condition that (a) they can get the Ladd owner to also throw in a useful asset, or (b) can turn it into a four player deal where it's Pactioretty plus a throw in for Ladd and a solid player. On the flip side, because of the perceived value situation, crafting a beneficial deal to get Pacioretty by trading Ladd would likely be difficult.

For those in multi-cat leagues, Pacioretty's actual value is more in line with his perceived value, as his Hits contributions are fairly well disguised and his goals are a premium. As for Ladd, his reputation for Hits is perhaps a bit overblown, and he's not great in PP points or other secondary categories. Keep these things in mind if looking to involve either player in a trade. Lastly, Ladd's value versus Pacioretty takes a hit in dynasty and cap leagues, due to being three years older and coming to unrestricted free agency sooner.