Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Gord)

I’m in a 14-team, keep-10 H2H league with rosters or 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1U, 1G, 10 Bench and scoring as follows: G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PIM (0.2), PPP (1), SOG (0.1), BLK (0.5), FOW/L (0.1), Hat Trick (3), W (5), SO (3), SV (0.1), GA (-0.5) Goalie Point (2). Let me preface this by saying that I'm in somewhat of a rebuilding phase, with my current group of players as follows, each of which has their fantasy point per game rate – as of when I wrote this, which was March 25th – in parentheses:

F: Brandon Hagel (2.89), Clayton Keller (2.94), Drake Batherson (2.62), Quinton Byfield (2.65), Nick Bjugstad (2.33), Morgan Frost (2.47), Alexis Lafreniere (2.08), Adam Lowry (1.96), Marco Rossi (1.90), Andrew Mangiapane (1.96), Stefan Noesen (1.80), Gabe Vilardi (3.15), Tommy Novak (1.99), Josh Norris (2.31), Dawson Mercer (1.36), T.J. Oshie (2.19), Alex Nylander (2.26), Logan Stankoven (3.14)

D: Noah Dobson (3.84), Alexander Romanov (2.03), J.J. Moser (1.82), Egor Zamula (1.78), Simon Nemec (1.92), Samuel Girard (1.90)

G: Logan Thompson (3.87), Vitek Vanecek (3.63), Semyon Varlamov (3.56)

My question is simple: what 10 players would you keep with the goal of having the best group of keepers in 2-3 years? In case it matters, I’ve built up a pretty considerable amount of draft picks over the next two years.

First off, the fact you have a stockpile of draft picks does matter, as it makes it less necessary to keep "iffy" prospects, or ones that have a lower chance of panning out. If you just had a normal number of picks, or even fewer than normal, then prospect importance would be magnified.

Let's start with your goalies, and here I think it's simple – keep none. Although Thompson could become valuable, he's too iffy. Start with a clean slate, unless perhaps you have the capability to trade from depth at another position, helping to fill the cupboards of one or more contending teams while gaining yourself a young goalie with promise.

For your defensemen, Dobson has looked less great oddly enough since Patrick Roy took the helm; but Dobson, like Mathew Barzal, clearly has awoken from the offensive coma he'd been in due to playing in the defense-first systems of Barry Trotz and then Lane Lambert. He's a cornerstone keeper. Otherwise, it might be that Nemec is the only other keep at D. It was odd to see the Devils draft him despite having the likes of Luke Hughes and Dougie Hamilton in their midst; but much like what Buffalo did in taking Owen Power they couldn't resist what Nemec might bring to the table. He didn't look at all out of place in the NHL this season. Keep him and reap the benefits when the time comes. I would've thought Girard could step up after Bowen Byram was dealt; but it seems the early career promise he showed is unlikely to be recaptured, and it'd be a waste to keep him. The other d-men are not in the conversation.

That means you have room for eight forward keepers, unless you opt to trade one or more of them to land a goalie. The good news is forward is where your talent does lie. The easy keeps are Keller, Byfield, and Hagel. After that though is when the debating begins. I think what Stankoven has shown has positioned him for a top-six spot sooner than later, especially with Joe Pavelski at or near the end of his career and the likes of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene not getting any younger. I also do think that all is not lost with Dawson Mercer. He was awful this season despite hitting his 200-game breakout threshold. What I like is his IPPs remained very strong; however, the issue is that offense is not being created when he's on the ice, so does he really get bonus points for factoring prominently into the little scoring that's occurring? He's a risky keep, but I think he makes the cut.

Laffy also has earned a spot. The line of him, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck has brought out the best in all three. It remains to be seen if Laffy can find his way onto PP1 though, and if he can't he has a 65-point realistic ceiling. Both Trocheck and Chris Kreider play rough and tumble styles, such that at their age injuries and/or decreased performance could come into play, in which case Laffy could waltz onto PP1 and real magic might happen.

I'm also holding Vilardi. As a larger player, he's only half way to his breakout threshold despite being 24 years old. But the fact he's a bit older than most at his level of experience might be helping him, as already he is very much dialed into the offense, shooting a lot, and doing enough to maintain a PP1 spot. He's a lock.

That leaves one more spot, with Norris, Rossi, Batherson, and Frost being those from which to choose. First though, let's realize that none of the three you don't chose will be able to be traded to fetch you a goalie in return, except perhaps Rossi, who, although having fallen well short of expectations, somehow has still managed to maintain a high fantasy profile. I would not have him be the keep anyway, since as I've said many times in this column the list of diminutive centers who've tasted fantasy success is – no pun intended – short, and has as its most recent members Derek Roy and Daniel Briere, both of whom are long since out of the NHL. Try to trade Rossi for a goalie. If you must, you could add Hagel in the deal, as although he has nice value he's likely at his ceiling since PP1 time remains elusive.

That means one or perhaps two spots for Norris, Batherson, and Frost. I think Batherson gets a spot, as although his scoring is down his IPPs are both over the all-important 70% mark and a mere nine of his 38 assists have been secondary, suggesting he is better than what we're seeing and might even be able to make it back to near the point per game output he had a few seasons ago.

As for Norris and Frost, with Norris it's how the mighty have fallen, and it's kind of sad since he had tons of talent and can't seem to catch a break in terms of injuries. It is definitely at or near the point where we have to question whether he can come back as any semblance of the player he was. Still, the Sens are paying him a lot, such that if he can get back to 100% he will get a long look on a scoring line. As for Frost, he seems to be making strides, although he still is running hot and cold. But that can be a prelude to a player finding his footing. Plus, he's just now at his breakout threshold. The safer keep would be Frost, while Norris would be the risk/reward play. If it were me, I'd take Frost. I think Norris might not be the same again, which is a shame.

The keeps are Dobson, Nemec, Keller, Byfield, Stankoven, Mercer, Lafreniere, Vilardi, Batherson, and Frost, plus Hagel if he's not dealt with Rossi to get a goalie. Otherwise, keep the goalie you get in return for Rossi and Hagel. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Julie)

I'm in a 15 team keeper where each team must have 18 players at RW/C/LW/D/G, and with regular season points counting for each team's top 3 at each forward position (C, LW, RW), plus their top 5 defensemen and top 2 goaltender, so stats from a total of 16 of each team's 18 players count. Skater points are straight up points, and goaltenders get 2 points for a win, and 3 bonus points for a shutout. Each team keeps 10 players with no restriction on position. There are also unlimited waiver acquisitions available for a small fee each. Our trading and waiver deadlines match those of the NHL. Picks at the draft start in round 1 in in reverse order of finish, then follow a snake format. 

Here are two unusual wrinkles for this league: (1) GMs get to add the total up-to-date regular season points of any player they trade for and (2) our league's playoffs are based on the actual NHL playoffs. Of course this creates unique scenarios. A GM who is out of the regular season will trade a top-scoring player on a non-NHL playoff team at the trading deadline to acquire a lower-scoring player on a guaranteed playoff squad and vice-versa. A team that is a few points out of winning the regular season can make a deal to vault past GMs with a move to acquire points at the deadline.

Teams jockey to acquire expected NHL playoff teams with last minute trades. Usually, these trades will include generous picks for the following season. As you can imagine, what appear to be very obviously one-sided trades are routinely approved because of these quirks. 

As I write this, which was prior to the playoffs, my team consists of the following:

C – Steven Stamkos, Mathew Barzal, Casey Mittelstadt

LW – Kevin Fiala, Johnny Gaudreau, Joel Farrabee

RW – Mikko Rantanen, Brock Boeser, Claude Giroux, Trevor Moore

D – Josh Morrissey, Zach Werenski, Cam York, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jake Walman

G – Devon Levi, Jonathan Quick, Joey Daccord

As you can see my weakness is clearly in net. In this league goalies are nearly impossible to trade for; but every season one or two decent ones are plucked from the waiver wire and/or drafted. Most teams protect two goalies, with some even keeping three. I have tried to do both over the years without much success. My team is routinely in the top 4 in the regular season, but I don't pay much attention to the playoffs as it is such a crapshoot. I don't want to gut my team for a small chance at a playoff victory.

So the challenge to improve my team based on my poor goaltending is to either go against the grain with one or no goalie keeper and hope for a lucky pick or waiver acquisition, or trade a quality skater for a mid level keeper. My keepers, from where I sit, are Rantanen, Fiala, Boeser, Stamkos, Barzal, Morrissey, Werenski, and Gaudreau with Giroux, Mittelstadt, and Farabee as bubble guys.

This leaves me with the hard choice of dropping one or two of Giroux/Mittelstadt/Farabee so as to keep one or two of Levi/Quick/Daccord. Or do I go with no goalies and take a big swing in the draft?

I'll start by addressing your unique league format. Certainly elite players from powerhouse teams are worth all the more because of their benefit during the entirety of your season. Players who excel for weak teams are devalued comparatively, whereas those on squads who stand to make deep playoff runs have far more value than normal.

As we've seen the past few seasons though, it is difficult to predict how the playoffs will unfold. I'd be leery of making moves to acquire a player on a team supposedly poised to make a deep run, as that is not always going to meet with success. The other issue is if a team goes too "all in" trying to win the playoffs, they could gut their team to an extent that it affects their keepers.

Here's the thing – I'm not sure any of that matters too much for you for the time being because in a league where 150 players will be kept, my sense is you are not looking poised to be in position to do well in the near future, and you hit the nail on the head in that it is due to your goalies. Your team is stocked with very solid assets in Rantanen, Weresnski, and Morrissey, plus Stamkos could continue to defy father time, Barzal might make further strides, and Boeser looks to be finally delivering on early promise, Fiala is solid and steady producer, Mittelstadt might be able to make gains for the Avs, and Gaudreau is someone you have to hold and hope. But I cannot see a universe in which that core of these nine keepers, plus whichever other you keep (I'd go with Farabee, as Giroux has really looked his age in the second half and I'm not too high on any of those three goalies) would put you among the better teams, due to your gaping hole in net.  As such, I think you should enter 2023-24 without winning in mind, and instead try to build for the future, first and foremost in net.

Your prized assets are Rantanen, Stamkos, Morrissey, Werenski, and, for the time being at least, Boeser. I'd be very much inclined to trade Morrissey, as he's done enough to show he's for real but I can't see him getting much better than he is now. Werenski, on the other hand, could still improve and wouldn't be as likely to fetch you as good a return. Stamkos is a must trade, as he's only going to get worse, and I fear the drop off could be steep, although he was a top-20 scorer, his ES points put him outside the top 70 among forwards, and that's troublesome. Yes, he could be Joe Pavelski 2.0 and play great into his late 30s, but I don't want to risk holding Stamkos beyond his expiration date. I'd also move Boeser. It's called selling high for a reason, and his lack of proven results is a concern. Fiala also could be safely moved since on the Kings he's not going to get a chance to shine. Gaudreau I'd keep in hopes he rises again, and Barzal I think still has another gear, making it better to just hold him or trade him later. Farabee is a hold as well, in hopes he improves.

As for when to trade them, with Stamkos he has value during both the regular season and playoffs, so choose the time when you can get the biggest return. Boeser I'd trade during this offseason out of fear he comes back to earth. Morrissey and Fiala can be traded at any time due to their consistency and their teams being likely to make the playoffs most years.

Will you have to take less than actual value for them in order to get your hooks into some goalies?  Yes, but it is what it is and you can't win until/unless you do that. Think of it as ripping off the band-aid. As to how many goalies to get, I'd see what it takes to get one and then decide if you have enough to make a play for a second. If not, then try to get younger, as your team has no players other than Werenski, and perhaps Barzal and Mittelstadt, who are likely to improve. Good luck!

Question #3 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I've been in a one year league for several seasons, and can't seem to find the right recipe for how to approach the draft, leaving me always having to play catch-up during the season. Rosters are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 3D, 1U, 2G, 4BN, 2IR and categories are G, A, PPP, +/-, SHP, PIM, GWG, SOG, FO; W, L, SO, GA, GAA, SV, SV%. Teams are allowed up to 7 FA moves per week, but not more than a total of 50 per season. It had been a 10 team league but next season will be switching to 12 teams.

The way scoring works is each week two teams are pitted against each other, and for each category a team wins that week they get two points, while for each they lose they get nothing, and if it's a tie each team gets one point. The winner of the league is the team which has the most points at the end of the season. So unlike a "normal" H2H league there is no playoffs; we just play every week until the end of the regular season and a winner is crowned.

To give you a sense of drafting patterns, albeit while it was still a ten team league, a total of six goalies were picked in the first three rounds at this season's draft (Shesterkin, Sorokin, Oettinger, Saros, Georgiev, Hellebuyck), and then five were selected in the next three rounds, and another five in the next three rounds, just three in the next three rounds, and then six in the last four rounds. Just two defensemen (Makar and Dahlin) but six pure centers (McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Crosby, Zibanejad, Hintz) were taken in the first three rounds.

With all these things in mind, including the switch to 12 teams, how would you approach the draft? What would your prioritize?

First off, it is helpful to know the draft tendencies of your league-mates. That having been said, with the league expanding to 12 teams, it might well change how people approach the draft.

In particular, goalies become a more precious commodity. Whereas the number taken every three rounds had been fairly consistent, I believe things might polarize – that is, I believe more will be selected earlier; but by the same token, more will go later, with fewer in the middle rounds. I say that because teams likely will want to assure that they can get a true #1, but then shift focus elsewhere until others start to draft goalies again. As for what I'd do if I were you, it really does feel like there are no more sure things when it comes to goalies, and your league actually penalizes volume as much as it rewards it. I might look to draft three goalies, two of whom play less but should have stellar stats (e.g., one of the two Carolina netminders or, if Linus Ulllmark isn't traded, one of the Boston duo). Then for a third I'd pick someone who should play a lot but might have iffier stats, like Jordan Binnington. When to take them? Probably in the middle rounds, although perhaps earlier if the goalie cupboard starts to empty.

I can see that elite d-men are not prioritized, as with GWG and FO, that ups the value of forwards. It is likely no secret that players who take faceoffs yet have winger eligibility are gold, so you'd need to pay a premium for them. I wouldn't prioritize that, as I think it could cause you to reach. Instead, I'd try to avoid players who only qualify as center but don't take a lot of draws, as those guys will put you at a disadvantage even produce well offensively.

With GWG and SOG, clearly high-volume shooters are a big deal. Remember also that for a player to get a GWG is largely pure luck, other than guys who just tend to get goals in the normal course. But I'd be wary of too many players from weaker teams, since if a team isn't winning a game then by definition it won't have anyone who gets a GWG.

Resist the urge to draft for SHP. Maybe consider that as a factor picking guys with the same positional eligibility and who are in the same tier. But otherwise, ignore it and hope you luck into some.

Similarly, I'd largely disregard +/-. Since your league doesn't count hits or blocks, you shouldn't draft any defensemen purely for +/-. But when I said disregard +/-, I'd still avoid taking several guys who figure to be on a struggling team, as that will result not only in fewer GWGs but worse +/-.

Also, with under 200 players drafted in total, I'm largely ignoring rookies and young "upside" guys, as it is too difficult to predict which ones will actually pan out. Yes, you might miss a home run; but for every one of those there are several misses. Think of everyone who drafted Matty Beniers, Moritz Seider, and Trevor Zegras this season. Stick to more proven entities.

Do try to avoid players who see little to no PP time, as that is something you can ill-afford to ignore since every PPT is also a regular point as well. So that means a guy like Brandon Hagel would be a player I'd likely draft after Oliver Bjorkstrand, as the latter has far more PPPts and a much higher SOG rate, despite far fewer points.

I know you asked about draft advice, but let me also chime in regarding pick-ups. Because there is a cap of seven per week, that effectively prevents streaming, so stockpiling them until late in the season to try and capitalize is not going to work out well. But with under 200 players owned at any time, there will always be tempting players to grab on the waiver wire. Pull the trigger early and often, and don't be afraid to cut the cord on a guy soon if things don't pan out. The goal should be to turn those 50 picks ups into perhaps 4-6 players who end up replacing disappointing drafted guys. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Bryan)

I'm in a 12 team cap, points only league where we keep 8 (any position) each season. Roster size is 30 total, with starting line-ups of 12F, 6D and 2G and 10 bench. The wrinkle is the goalies are "team goalies" which means you draft a team's goalies, so only 32 "goalies" can be owned among the league. We run our cap as per the NHL which will be $87.7M for next season. Each team only gets a total of 12 waiver moves per season.

Here are my projected keepers, with their 2023-24 cap cost in parentheses: Elias Pettersson ($11.6M), JT Miller ($8M), Jesper Bratt ($7.875M), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M), Dylan Guenther ($0.895M), William Eklund ($0.864M) Zach Werenski ($9.5M) and the Devils Team Goalies ($2.275M). That adds up to 46.134M, giving me just over $40M for my other 21 players plus one other team goalie.

Here are my other keeper options. Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8M), Jordan Kyrou ($8M), Quinton Byfield (RFA), Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25M), Shane Pinto (RFA), Pavel Mintyukov ($0.918M), Cam York ($1.6M), Tampa Team Goalies ($4.95M). Would any of them rate as better keepers in your view? Should I consider making any offseason trades?

One immediate danger in your plan is if the Devils do what is widely expected and that is to trade for a top tier goalie, which would balloon their team goalie cap hit. I like the Tampa goalies better, as you can be sure what you'll get and the price tag is actually pretty reasonable. If somehow the Devils opt not to upgrade, you can keep both team tandems, and cross goalies off your shopping list.

Otherwise, it is tough to decide who to plug into the vacant spot. I like Kyrou a lot, but his price is just too high by comparison. JEE probably should not be the keep, as although he's seen his scoring improve for five straight seasons now, points-only is his worst format and by this time next season the Wild are likely to have a massive overhaul given the money they'll be able to spend. Pinto has lure if Josh Norris is unable to return from injury, although he's only done okay since returning from suspension, so I'm not holding him either. York is not that cheap and could be on the outside looking in when it comes to top blueline deployment in Philly. Mintyukov has more lure now that Jamie Drysdale is out of the picture but I still think Oren Zellweger is going to be the chosen one.

The choice is either Buchnevich or Byfield, unless Byfield takes the place of Eklund or Guenther. In assessing the latter option, Eklund really looked like he was starting to connect the dots in Q4; and while he will still be on a lousy San Jose team, he should be able to continue to make strides. And Guenther has become a very solid player despite his limited NHL experience. Given their trajectories, I think both Eklund and Guenther are keeps, meaning the last spot does come down to Buchnevich or Byfield.

Buch had seen his nearly all of his rates increase every season in the NHL, until 2023-24. And looking at his metrics, his individual and team SH%s was unsustainably low, and his IPPs, which are usually rock solid, lagged well below his norms. Yet he didn't have that bad of a season. He is still a point per game player, so keeping him at his dollar figure does seem justified. But some might not see the forest through the trees, meaning Buchnevich could have redraft potential.

Byfield though will be grabbed early if allowed back into the draft, as he took major strides and his 200 game breakout threshold is next season, although given his frame it might take closer to game 400 for him to hit his pinnacle. Yes, he slowed substantially in Q4, but that likely was him having to play the long haul of his first full NHL season.

Here's how I'd make the decision – if Byfield is inked to a deal for at least $1M per season less than Buchnevich, he'd be too tough to let go, especially since, as I noted, Buchnevich is a sneaky redraft target. If Byfield's new deal will earn him more than that, I'd toss him back into the pile, since I think Eklund and Guenther will produce comparably, and, for the time being, far more cheaply. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Greg)

I’m in a 16 Team Keep 8, H2H league with a farm that allows up to 7 players who do not need to be kept as any of the 8 keepers, and can be farmed until they hit 3 seasons of 26+ NHL games (31+ for goalies). Categories are G, A, SOG, PPP, GWG, SHG, +/-, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO and rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4 F, 4D, 1G, 6Bench, 2IR+, 1NA.

Currently my keeper list is projected to be: Mitch Marner, Quinton Byfield, Kevin Fiala, Travis Konecny, Alexis Lafreniere, Brock Boeser, Zach Werenski, plus one of Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen and Josh Norris. My farm eligible players are Connor Bedard, Brock Faber, Joseph Woll, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Frank Nazar, Kirill Marchenko, Connor McMichael, Ivan Miroschnichenko, Mavrik Bourque and Bobby Brink, meaning I need to trim my farm list by three players, unless I opt to keep one of them in a regular spot instead of eight. 

I’m a rebuilding, fringe playoff team these days but hoping my guys will continue their development next year and maybe I’ll be competitive soon. Given this, I would appreciate any help in identifying which farmable players I’ll be able to plug into the lineup for impact sooner than later! Especially between Nazar, McMichael, Miro, Marchenko, Bourque and Brink.

I'm not loving the options for your eighth keeper, although perhaps Lindholm and/or Teravainen will fare better on the teams where they sign as UFAs. But I'm not sure given their ages and trajectories. As such, there is reason to consider keeping Bedard as your eighth non-farm player, meaning you'd only have to cut two farm guys. After all, you did say you're a fringe team, and I think given that neither of Lindholm or Teravainen fits your bill better than a prospect. As for Norris, he's not in the conversation since his stock has fallen enough to make him an easy redraft if you're so inclined.

Before we decide on your eighth keeper though, let's assess the other nine farm guys. Is offseason trading allowed in your league? If so, I'd move Faber, as I think his success is largely based on him being placed into about the best circumstances for success as any rookie d-man. Minnesota is also escaping from cap hell next summer, and they will likely be looking to bring in an offensive d-man, which would relegate Faber to more of an all-around role, similar to what Filip Hronek did when he was on the Wings, namely point per every other game production. But Faber is hugely hyped right now, and, as I already said once in an earlier answer, it's called selling high for a reason. I'd try to maybe package Faber and one of the fringe eighth keeper guys to get a better eighth keeper, making it so you've upgraded there plus now will need to only not protect two of your remaining farm guys.

Looking at the other nine on the farm, both goalies are easy keeps. They've found success already and if anything could build on that. Yes, UPL might get elbowed aside by Devon Levi, but perhaps he shuts the door on the youngster. For now, both are no brainer keeps. I'm also holding Nazar, who could form a nice one-two punch with your Bedard, and Marchenko, who made some decent strides this season.

The rest all have question marks and/or warts. I feel like either both McMichael and Miro should be held or both dropped. I happen to think Washington is going to spiral downhill and it won't be pretty there for a while. That might mean increased opportunities for the two young Cap forwards, but if the team is struggling as a whole, how good might they be? Bourque and Brink are not what I'd call blue chip prospects, as they're not young and likely have limited upside. Given that your team is on the fringe, I think rolling the dice with the Washington duo is probably the way to go. I'd rather hitch my wagon to guys I see as likely to have major roles, even if on a team likely to struggle, than Bourque and Brink who might be fringe players, so Bourque and Brink get the boot. Good luck!

Question #6 (from another Austin)

In my 18 team H2H (weekly line-ups) dynasty league where skater categories are G, A, SOG, PPP, and Hit+Block+PIM and rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G, plus 3 Bench, I’m wondering about the outlook of Barrett Hayton, Bowen Byram and Shea Theodore. 

I traded for Hayton earlier this season during his cold start, trusting he would turn things around with prime deployment riding shotgun next to Keller, who I also own. He’s sitting at his breakout threshold, but with the emergence of Logan Cooley and the impending move to Utah, where ownership might make a splash by spending big on UFAs, how are you feeling about Hayton’s outlook moving forward? 

I’ve been holding Byram for the day he'd finally be traded, only for him to land under Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power in Buffalo. It was encouraging to see his hot start and PP deployment when he first arrived there, but I don’t know if that’s realistic to expect moving forward. Having him on a cheap contract for two more years is great, but I’m wondering how you see things playing out for Byram, especially with a coaching change. In case it matters, I could get a huge return if I traded Byram.

Finally, what do you think will happen with Theodore’s deployment heading into next season? My head tells me he should be fine, as Hanifin has never really thrived as a PP guy; but with Vegas locking Hanifin up long term and giving him PP1 down the stretch, does that put Theodore’s value at risk?

For what it's worth, I'm a top team. So although future potential is important I am hoping for impact sooner rather than later. Also, I should be able to make any or all of them work in terms of the salary cap, or make due without any of them either.

Right off the bat, if you can get a big haul for Byram, I think you have to take it. After a big splash upon arriving in Buffalo, he limped to the finish and didn't even best the point per every other game mark during his time there, with his PP usage dropping a lot after a few early games of prime man advantage deployment. I also don't like that his already woeful SOG rate actually dropped a bit in Buffalo. The silver lining is he seems to be a high percentage shooter; however, if a d-man isn't firing pucks at the net, that will result in far fewer chances for primary or even secondary assists.

Byram also never once in his career has had a team SH% of 10.0%+, and his PDOs have been just so-so. That suggests offense isn't happening while he's on the ice. Although that's always a concern, it was less so previously due to his pretty decent IPPs. But for 2023-24 his IPPs were terrible. If he's not shooting, nor finding ways to factor into scoring, nor contributing as an offensive catalyst, those are major red flags. Still, he's only turning 23 in June, and there is a very realistic chance for him to improve. But I don't like what I've seen so far, and the list of players who started off as band-aid boys and stayed that way is a lot longer than those who found a way to become more consistently healthy over time. I think that if you don't trade him now you'll have a very tough time getting anything near his current value, as folks saw what he did upon arriving in Buffalo, plus realize he's a bargain for two more seasons, and they want to grab him now in hopes of him playing future dividends. My take is you trade him, and don't think twice about doing so.

As for Hayton, you raise fair points. He may have lost his window to stake a claim to a top line spot. Or did he? To end 2023-24 he was out there with Keller and Nick Schmaltz and put up three points in four games with 11 SOG. That is of course a very small sample size; however, it does show that the team seems to still consider him a big part of their plans. Or they could have been trying to showcase him, perhaps to trade him. Either way, I like the risk of holding him, since we saw in 2022-23 that he could connect the dots and whether for his current team or a new one I think he can find a path to success.

With Theodore, you have proof that early band-aid boys tend not to shed that moniker. The fact he's set to be a UFA after next season, coupled with Hanifin being extended and being featured very prominently on the PP, may well suggest that Theodore's tenure in Vegas could be coming to an end. That might not be a net-negative for Theodore, as other than this season he was not given heaps of PP time. His output this season was rock solid, finishing at a career best scoring pace and boasting outstanding IPPs both overall and on the PP. Plus, although he'll be 30 by the time he takes the ice after becoming a UFA, he'll be a young 30 given the games he's missed over his career. I think Theodore will be very coveted as a UFA; and although that will mean his cap hit will rise, he also should be given even more chances to shine. He's a keep for me as well.

In summary, trade Byram, keep Hayton and Theodore. I'd try to use Byram to get rid of a salary anchor, so as to truly maximize the return you get for him. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Kent)

I'm in a 14 team keep 7 league. We dress 6F, 3D, 1G per week. Points only for skaters, 2 points for a goalie win and another 2 for a SO. I finished last and want to try to improve, although I'm open to rebuilding, as have three first round picks, with a good shot at first overall, plus two picks in the second round. With these things in mind, which seven of the following would you keep: Mikko Rantanen, Seth Jarvis. Adam Fantilli, Lucas Carlsson, Alex DeBrincat, Timo Meier, Mason McTavish, Shane Pinto, Morgan Rielly, Jake Sanderson, Brady Skjei, Igor Shesterkin. Offseason trading is allowed but not with all teams until after the playoffs end.

First let's eliminate the players without keeper or trade value, those being Skjei and Pinto. Nothing against them, but in a league with under 100 keepers they don't move the needle.

That leaves you with ten players for the seven spots. The issue is with only ten players in each team's weekly line-up, and seven keepers, those keepers will go a long way toward dictating the success of a team. No matter how you slice it, your seven keepers would be in the bottom half of the league, probably in the bottom two or three.

Your issue is you have Rantanen, who's peaked and has nowhere to go but down, although it is unlikely that happens any time soon. Still, he'd be a great trade candidate because he has huge name value and consistency. Shesterkin also likely could be traded for a nice haul, as although he's a lock to be among the best goalies in the NHL, your format doesn't reward you for his peripherals, such that he's just as good as an Alexander Georgiev, a vastly inferior goalie in nearly all respects. And Morgan Rielly would be another I'd look to trade, as I think he has peaked and even still is not very consistent.  But in the end, I think I probably hold Shesterkin, as there is a nice luxury in knowing you have the goalie area covered.

I'm also not sure Fantilli and Carlsson are keeps. Can they be good enough soon enough? Hopefully, but that's two keeper spots for players who still could take a couple more years before they really start to hit their stride. Then there's Jarvis, Sanderson and McTavish, who are farther along than Fantilli and Carlsson, but not thriving as yet.

As for Meier, he hit his stride in Q4, plus I think he has lousy trade value, as your fellow GMs will see his yearlong stats and not be impressed. With him you hold and hope for now.

What I'd probably do is trade at least two of Rantanen, Shesterkin, and Rielly. I'd avoid looking for a goalie in return, since I think they can be drafted easily, as at most each team will keep one, and my guess is most will keep none. But still, Shesterkin is a major name and will fetch you a nice return if traded. I think Rantanen will as well, although with him I'd not pull the trigger unless I'm wowed, since he could be able to keep up his pace for several more seasons, making him fine to hold. Rielly won't land a big name in return, but he will get you something given his high profile and track record.

After trading two of those three (I'd pick Rantanen and Rielly), you'll still have three keepers, unless you trade one for two players, which might be possible as I suspect more teams will have too many potential keepers than too few. I think you keep Sanderson, as I believe Jakub Chychrun will get moved and Sanderson will only improve. I am concerned though about Jarvis, who I covered in a recent Goldipucks column. With Trevor Zegras looking quite good as the season ended, I worry about McTavish a bit more. Still I think McTavish is a keeper when all is said and done, but not Jarvis. As for DeBrincat, he had every chance to shine and didn't, so he should be a redraft.

In the end I'm keeping whomever I get in trade for Rantanen and/or Rielly, plus Shesterkin, Sanderson, McTavish, Meier, Fantilli and Carlsson. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Pooyan)

I'm in a 6 team, keep 6 roto league, with rosters of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 3 (but room for 4) goalies, 4Bench (+2 IR). Categories are Goals, Assists, +/-, Hits, PPP, Wins, SV%, and there's a limit on the number of goalie games of 164 GP, which is the reason why there is an option for each team to either play three or four goalies. 

This is my end of season roster:

C – Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, Mathew Barzal, Robert Thomas

LW – Brady Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, Evander Kane

RW – Mitch Marner, Jesper Bratt, Brock Boeser, Owen Tippett

D – Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy, Noah Dobson, John Carlson, Shea Theodore, Zach Werenski

G – Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Sorokin, Pyotr Kotchetkov, Joey Daccord

B – Bryan Rust, Radko Gudas, Sam Bennett, Anthony Stolarz

I see my top 5 keepers as MacKinnon, Hughes, Tkachuk, Marner, and Fox. Any advice on who I should go with for the 6th? I had originally penciled in Dobson but he slumped big time to end the year. Guentzel seems like a good choice but I just don't trust Carolina, although he might not re-sign there. McAvoy? His hits are attractive. Sorokin? I kept him last year and he failed me this year. Swayman? Yes if Ulmark was gone. After years of goalie frustration I might try the Zero G strategy everyone's buzzing about. What do you think about that?

But there's another option! One team has Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov, Connor Bedard, Mikko Rantanen, Rasmus Dahlin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Thatcher Demko. That's a great group, but one too many. I have a feeling he won't keep Dahlin. Would you advise trading for him as my 6th keeper, at the cost of maybe a 1st for a 4th round pick? Or maybe even proposing the same trade for one of his goalies? I finished 2nd this year (with MacKinnon being the only player in the top 20 of the player rater, so I'm lacking that elite star-power) so I will be drafting 5th (every round, non-snake), so I’m thinking neither will drop to my pick.

The number of keepers for each team is fewer than I thought given that 15-16 players are starting at a time. Although you do need to make them all count, the best set of keepers won't guarantee a win for a team, even for the opponent with the stud keepers.

No chance I'm keeping a goalie here. But I'm not sure I'm doing zero G either, as wins and SV% are the only two categories so they matter equally. What you want are goalies who play for strong teams but aren't going to be as coveted because they're not true #1 guys like Demko or Hellebuyck. If you could get Kotchetkov again, plus Frederick Andersen, who'll be in the last season of his deal, you figure to be able to get all the Carolina wins – and there should be a lot – plus have great SV% numbers. And if the Bs don't move Ullmark, him and Swayman are attractive options for the same reason. If you do get two timeshare goalies, bingo, there's your 164 games. Otherwise, I wouldn't hesitate to draft Sorokin again, as I feel his value will plummet but to me his part results were too superb for what we saw from him this season to be a new normal. I'd also gamble on Juuse Saros provided he isn't traded to New Jersey, as he too is someone I feel is better than what we saw. Plus both are true #1 guys. If you get one of them, you can pick a fourth goalie who plays less but when he does he plays great, like Stolarz or Laurent Broissoit.

As for your five keepers, they seem to be the correct picks on paper, so I can't argue with any of them. I do feel Dobson is for real, so he'd be fine as a sixth. Would I prefer Dahlin over him? Definitely, since he has better peripherals and has shown more. Plus that GM is behind the eight ball in that it's clear they will need to not keep a star, and there are only four other GMs to trade with, so you should be able to get Dahlin for less than market value. But if the price is too high, then just stick with Dobson. Good luck!

For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.