Real or Imagined? Eastern Conference Forwards – Part Two (2016)
Eric Daoust
2016-12-27
Buy, sell or hold? A stock report on the forwards from FLA, MON, NJ, NYI and NYR.
With more than one third of the NHL season complete we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things will ultimately play out. Still, there remain plenty of anomalies throughout the league that require further analysis. Specifically, some players are capable of producing more than their current rate which puts them in “buy low” territory while others are likely playing above their means putting them in “sell high” territory.
Many factors help determine a player’s buy/sell status. Various percentages and advanced stats help paint a more accurate picture of the situation. Also, historical production, ice time and opportunity also play a role. After looking at Boston through Detroit last week, the focus now shifts to Florida, Montreal, New Jersey and the two New York teams.
|
FLORIDA |
Pos |
GP |
TOI |
%PP |
G |
A |
Pts |
PPP |
SHT/G |
SH% |
STATUS |
|
BARKOV,ALEKSANDER |
C |
35 |
19:29 |
51.5 |
9 |
18 |
27 |
7 |
2.5 |
10.3 |
HOLD |
|
JAGR,JAROMIR |
R |
35 |
17:02 |
50.5 |
6 |
15 |
21 |
7 |
2.5 |
6.9 |
BUY |
|
MARCHESSAULT,JONATHAN |
C |
28 |
18:19 |
48.1 |
10 |
10 |
20 |
7 |
2.6 |
13.7 |
HOLD |
|
TROCHECK,VINCENT |
C |
35 |
21:20 |
49.1 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
4 |
2.7 |
8.5 |
BUY |
|
SMITH,REILLY |
R |
35 |
19:12 |
43.3 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
5 |
2.0 |
10.0 |
HOLD |
|
SCEVIOUR,COLTON |
C |
35 |
14:55 |
22.4 |
5 |
7 |
12 |
3 |
1.9 |
7.5 |
WAIVE |
|
MACKENZIE,DEREK |
C |
35 |
11:52 |
1.8 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
0 |
1.2 |
9.5 |
WAIVE |
|
MALGIN,DENIS |
C |
31 |
11:47 |
21.7 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
1.4 |
9.2 |
WAIVE |
|
JOKINEN,JUSSI |
L |
25 |
17:51 |
39.9 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
1.8 |
4.4 |
BUY |
|
GRIFFITH,SETH |
C |
16 |
13:06 |
24.2 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
RAU,KYLE |
C |
23 |
9:50 |
3.4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0.9 |
9.7 |
WAIVE |
|
HARPER,SHANE |
R |
14 |
10:18 |
0.3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0.9 |
15.9 |
WAIVE |
|
MCCANN,JARED |
C |
17 |
10:07 |
5.4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
1.2 |
4.9 |
WAIVE |
|
THOMPSON,PAUL |
R |
9 |
7:56 |
0.1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
MCKEGG,GREG |
C |
19 |
10:41 |
1.5 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
BJUGSTAD,NICK |
C |
16 |
13:22 |
26.1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
HOLD |
|
THORNTON,SHAWN |
L |
12 |
5:58 |
0.4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN |
L |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
BUY |
Jagr continues to amaze at the age of 44. While his current output is nowhere near last year’s incredible 66-point effort, he is on pace to push the 50-point mark thanks to an ongoing hot streak of nine points in his last 10 games. He has also been the victim of some unlucky shooting which leaves room for further improvement in the coming months. Not to mention, Jonathan Huberdeau will be back at some point in the second half which should help add a few extra points to Jagr’s name down the stretch.
Trocheck has not been able to duplicate last season’s surprising result. The conditions are certainly in place – his average ice time is above 21 minutes per game – but he has been very unlucky at five-on-five. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting up points with more consistency and with such heavy minutes he could be in for a scary run in the near future. As an added bonus if your league counts plus/minus Trocheck should improve significantly in this area (currently minus-15) once he finally gets rolling.
Frequently lined up next to Trocheck, Jokinen has suffered similarly especially at five-on-five and his ugly numbers likely have him sitting on the wire in your league. He is still getting solid ice time and he has strong linemates so there is still time to turn this around. In the past he has been inconsistent from year to year but has generally fallen between 40 and 60 points. If he can produce at this rate moving forward he would be a great depth player to add for the final months. Keep an eye on him for an improvement which will likely coincide with Trocheck turning things around.
Huberdeau has yet to play this year and is expected back in February. If he is somehow on the wire this late in the game you have to scoop him up now. More likely he finds himself on someone’s IR spot and depending on his owner’s situation there could be an opportunity to buy low. Offer your rival a quick fix for his roster even if the end result is some short-term pain. You still have time to shore up your own weaknesses and when Huberdeau returns the boost to your squad will be well worth it.
|
MONTREAL |
Pos |
GP |
TOI |
%PP |
G |
A |
Pts |
PPP |
SHT/G |
SH% |
STATUS |
|
PACIORETTY,MAX |
L |
34 |
18:38 |
54.3 |
14 |
13 |
27 |
5 |
2.8 |
14.7 |
HOLD |
|
GALCHENYUK,ALEX |
C |
25 |
16:10 |
49.6 |
9 |
14 |
23 |
8 |
1.8 |
20.0 |
HOLD |
|
RADULOV,ALEXANDER |
R |
32 |
17:19 |
55.5 |
6 |
17 |
23 |
7 |
2.2 |
8.5 |
HOLD |
|
BYRON,PAUL |
L |
34 |
14:54 |
8 |
11 |
8 |
19 |
1 |
1.4 |
23.1 |
SELL |
|
GALLAGHER,BRENDAN |
R |
34 |
15:09 |
46.6 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
2 |
2.6 |
5.7 |
BUY |
|
PLEKANEC,TOMAS |
C |
34 |
17:21 |
24.9 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
4 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
HOLD |
|
SHAW,ANDREW |
C |
29 |
15:04 |
49.8 |
6 |
9 |
15 |
3 |
2.0 |
10.3 |
HOLD |
|
DANAULT,PHILLIP |
L |
34 |
13:29 |
2.7 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
0 |
1.6 |
11.0 |
HOLD |
|
MITCHELL,TORREY |
C |
34 |
13:13 |
2.3 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
0 |
0.9 |
22.9 |
WAIVE |
|
DESHARNAIS,DAVID |
C |
25 |
13:04 |
29 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
0.9 |
13.3 |
WAIVE |
|
LEHKONEN,ARTTURI |
L |
25 |
13:46 |
13.4 |
7 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
2.2 |
12.7 |
WAIVE |
|
FLYNN,BRIAN |
C |
23 |
12:00 |
0.7 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
1.0 |
13.0 |
WAIVE |
|
CARR,DANIEL |
L |
20 |
10:06 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
1.5 |
3.3 |
WAIVE |
|
TERRY,CHRIS |
L |
9 |
10:26 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
1.2 |
9.3 |
WAIVE |
|
ANDRIGHETTO,SVEN |
R |
8 |
9:13 |
4.1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
MCCARRON,MICHAEL |
R |
5 |
11:03 |
14.2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
Byron’s emergence as a productive NHL player has been a fun story to follow. He has certainly taken advantage of some injury problems in Montreal as he currently has 19 points in 34 games. Given the amount of breakaways he gets due to his speed it is normal for him to have a more elevated shooting percentage but 24 percent is just ridiculous. Sell him if you can to a Canadiens fan in your league who may bite on an offer if he acts on emotion.
Last year’s 40 points in 53 games gave some people hope that a career year could be on the horizon for Gallagher. Unfortunately, his scoring touch has been missing so far this year. Meanwhile, Alexander Radulov has emerged as the team’s top right winger. Gallagher is a high-volume shooter who has converted on less than six percent of his shots thus far. Look for this percentage to improve as he finally gets rewarded for his work around the net.
|
NEW JERSEY |
Pos |
GP |
TOI |
%PP |
G |
A |
Pts |
PPP |
SHT/G |
SH% |
STATUS |
|
ZAJAC,TRAVIS |
C |
34 |
20:15 |
50.9 |
8 |
15 |
23 |
5 |
2.0 |
11.8 |
HOLD |
|
HALL,TAYLOR |
L |
26 |
20:35 |
55.1 |
8 |
14 |
22 |
7 |
3.3 |
9.3 |
HOLD |
|
CAMMALLERI,MIKE |
L |
28 |
17:59 |
45.4 |
9 |
10 |
19 |
5 |
2.5 |
12.9 |
SELL |
|
HENRIQUE,ADAM |
C |
34 |
18:14 |
47.8 |
8 |
11 |
19 |
2 |
1.7 |
13.8 |
HOLD |
|
PALMIERI,KYLE |
C
📢 advertisement:
|
32 |
16:18 |
48.6 |
6 |
12 |
18 |
8 |
1.9 |
9.9 |
BUY |
|
PARENTEAU,PA |
R |
32 |
15:26 |
43.7 |
8 |
6 |
14 |
3 |
1.9 |
13.2 |
HOLD |
|
LAPPIN,NICK |
R |
26 |
12:24 |
11.3 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
1.4 |
11.0 |
WAIVE |
|
BENNETT,BEAU |
R |
28 |
13:48 |
32.1 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
2 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
WAIVE |
|
ZACHA,PAVEL |
C |
29 |
13:54 |
30.1 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
1.0 |
6.9 |
WAIVE |
|
SMITH-PELLY,DEVANTE |
R |
28 |
13:29 |
34.3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
1.7 |
4.2 |
WAIVE |
|
WOOD,MILES |
L |
15 |
12:01 |
10.1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
1.8 |
14.8 |
WAIVE |
|
FIDDLER,VERNON |
L |
34 |
12:28 |
1.2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0.9 |
3.3 |
WAIVE |
|
KALININ,SERGEY |
C |
27 |
12:35 |
4.3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1.1 |
3.4 |
WAIVE |
|
JOSEFSON,JACOB |
C |
14 |
11:22 |
28.3 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
Cammalleri is off to a strong start and has been an excellent value pick considering he was likely available in the later rounds on draft day. While his production has been noteworthy, he is also a major risk on the injury front. Simply put, in the three years prior to this one he missed a combined 73 games. Use his good play to date as bait and let your rival deal with the inevitable ailment that might be just around the corner.
After scoring 30 goals last year Palmieri has just six to date. His ice time and shot volume are down which is at the source of the decline in play. He will likely not repeat his career year but he is much better than we have seen. He has been much better of late with five points in his last six games. The buy-low window is closing quickly.
|
NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
Pos |
GP |
TOI |
%PP |
G |
A |
Pts |
PPP |
SHT/G |
SH% |
STATUS |
|
TAVARES,JOHN |
C |
33 |
20:10 |
67.9 |
10 |
14 |
24 |
7 |
3.0 |
10.1 |
BUY |
|
BAILEY,JOSH |
C |
33 |
19:10 |
60.8 |
5 |
16 |
21 |
6 |
2.1 |
7.2 |
HOLD |
|
NELSON,BROCK |
C |
33 |
15:58 |
43.2 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
4 |
2.2 |
9.6 |
HOLD |
|
LEE,ANDERS |
C |
33 |
13:57 |
39.4 |
12 |
4 |
16 |
3 |
2.0 |
18.2 |
HOLD |
|
CIZIKAS,CASEY |
C |
29 |
14:23 |
4 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
1 |
1.1 |
12.5 |
HOLD |
|
CLUTTERBUCK,CAL |
R |
32 |
14:49 |
13.8 |
2 |
10 |
12 |
0 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
HOLD |
|
CHIMERA,JASON |
L |
33 |
13:05 |
1.4 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
0 |
1.3 |
9.3 |
WAIVE |
|
PRINCE,SHANE |
C |
26 |
12:45 |
22 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
2 |
1.6 |
9.6 |
HOLD |
|
STROME,RYAN |
C |
30 |
14:08 |
56.5 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
3 |
1.7 |
9.8 |
BUY |
|
BEAUVILLIER,ANTHONY |
L |
24 |
11:58 |
3.4 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
0 |
1.0 |
16.7 |
WAIVE |
|
KULEMIN,NIKOLAY |
L |
31 |
13:38 |
2.3 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
0 |
1.0 |
12.9 |
WAIVE |
|
LADD,ANDREW |
L |
33 |
16:17 |
49.3 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
1.6 |
9.5 |
BUY |
|
QUINE,ALAN |
C |
23 |
11:42 |
23.4 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
1.3 |
6.7 |
WAIVE |
For the second year in a row Tavares has posted disappointing totals. This year has not been his fault as the Islanders have been a real mess thus far. If he can get going with a pair of linemates up to the task we could see him return to his point-per-game form in the second half. It may take a coaching change for this to happen and we can only guess if and when that will happen. Having said that, there may never be a better time to buy low. The upside is too good to pass up.
Since his 50-point campaign in 2014-15 Strome has been a disaster. This year he fell off the map and is likely on the wire in your league. He turned things around before the Christmas break as four of his 10 points have come in the last five games. He is far from a sure thing at this point but should definitely be on your radar even in shallow leagues. Keep in mind he is lining up with below-average linemates (Clutterbuck and Kulemin last game) so it may not be possible for Strome to keep it up until he gets promoted to a better unit.
Ladd’s abysmal first year with the Islanders has been well documented after signing a rich long-term contract last summer. He was given every opportunity to click with Tavares on the top line and now finds himself in a secondary role. However, the good news for Ladd is many of his teammates have not been very good either so there is certainly time to turn things around. He has been very productive over the years and although this season is very concerning he likely has some good play left in the tank. As with Strome, keep an eye on how things play out with the Islanders in the next couple weeks, including behind the bench.
|
NEW YORK RANGERS |
Pos |
GP |
TOI |
%PP |
G |
A |
Pts |
PPP |
SHT/G |
SH% |
STATUS |
|
STEPAN,DEREK |
C |
36 |
18:08 |
50 |
7 |
19 |
26 |
6 |
2.3 |
8.5 |
HOLD |
|
ZUCCARELLO,MATS |
C |
36 |
18:40 |
53.8 |
8 |
17 |
25 |
4 |
2.2 |
10.1 |
HOLD |
|
KREIDER,CHRIS |
C |
30 |
16:50 |
50.8 |
11 |
13 |
24 |
6 |
2.6 |
14.1 |
HOLD |
|
HAYES,KEVIN |
R |
36 |
16:52 |
29.8 |
11 |
12 |
23 |
2 |
1.7 |
18.0 |
SELL |
|
MILLER,J.T. |
C |
36 |
16:08 |
27.2 |
9 |
13 |
22 |
3 |
1.8 |
13.9 |
HOLD |
|
NASH,RICK |
L |
30 |
16:05 |
42.2 |
13 |
7 |
20 |
6 |
2.9 |
14.9 |
HOLD |
|
GRABNER,MICHAEL |
R |
35 |
13:19 |
1 |
14 |
5 |
19 |
0 |
2.1 |
19.0 |
SELL |
|
VESEY,JIMMY |
L |
35 |
14:21 |
39.7 |
10 |
7 |
17 |
6 |
1.7 |
16.8 |
HOLD |
|
ZIBANEJAD,MIKA |
C |
19 |
16:41 |
52.7 |
5 |
10 |
15 |
5 |
2.5 |
10.5 |
HOLD |
|
FAST,JESPER |
R |
36 |
14:19 |
2.4 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
0 |
0.9 |
9.3 |
WAIVE |
|
PIRRI,BRANDON |
C |
34 |
12:34 |
53.6 |
6 |
6 |
12 |
6 |
1.5 |
11.8 |
WAIVE |
|
BUCHNEVICH,PAVEL |
L |
10 |
15:06 |
49.2 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
1.8 |
22.2 |
HOLD |
|
LINDBERG,OSCAR |
C |
21 |
11:36 |
2.6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
|
PUEMPEL,MATT |
L |
10 |
9:50 |
23.4 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0.8 |
25.0 |
WAIVE |
|
JOORIS,JOSH |
R |
12 |
8:36 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0.9 |
9.3 |
WAIVE |
|
HRIVIK,MAREK |
L |
10 |
11:12 |
1.6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
WAIVE |
Like many of his teammates, Hayes has enjoyed a hot start as the Rangers have been major players in the goal-scoring department. However, there are some red flags in his case that make now a good time to sell if you can. First, his shooting percentage is up at 18 percent which is a very difficult rate to sustain. In all likelihood he will score goals with less frequency moving forward. Also, the return of Mika Zibanejad in late January might push Hayes down to the third line where his offensive upside would be more limited.
In all likelihood the sell-high window has closed already for Grabner after such a great start to the year but there may still be time to cash out. After been a major disappointment over the last few years Grabner came out of nowhere to score 14 goals in the first half while sporting an inflated shooting percentage. Things have already begun to correct themselves as he has just two goals in his last 14 contests. If you can somehow land a more reliable depth scorer for Grabner then do it now before it is too late and you are stuck with whatever is available on the waiver wire.
*
Check out Part One in this series.
*
Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.
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Sir,
My personal disagreements:
Jagr is a HOLD
Byron is a HOLD
Lekhonen is a BUY
Ladd is a SELL (and FLUSH!)
Zibby (NYR) is a BUY