Top 40 Fantasy Prospect Goalies – August 2016
Dobber
2016-08-19
By popular demand – Top 40 prospect goalies to own in fantasy hockey, August edition.
I suppose I can't ignore 1000 emails! So I've pulled the prospect goaltenders out of the goalie list and give them their own list. Still, it's not an easy task. This isn't a ranking of goalie talent, otherwise you'd see the likes of Eric Comrie in the Top 10 and the likes of Marek Mazanec hovering around 40th. Instead, it's a ranking of fantasy value. A combination of upside, likelihood, wait time, spot on the depth chart and potential opportunity (what I like to call 'team politics'). If the goalie is just an-injury-to-the-starter away from helping your fantasy squad (i.e. Louis Domingue last season), it really boosts his value. The reality is, Domingue is not a superb goaltender. As a prospect, he's merely average. But can you top being a backup to Mike Smith, who is both shaky and somewhat prone to injury?
In my three keeper leagues I make it a policy not to even draft teenage goaltenders. If another GM in my league wants to sit on a kid for six years, go ahead. But I know I could help my fantasy team more if I draft a 22-year-old who could help me within two years. One exception I did make was Carey Price, who I drafted when he was 19 (see? Still have never taken an 18-year-old). But Price was special. If another Price comes along, I'm sure I'd do it again.
Another weird one here is the fact that I have Forsberg and Korpisalo, both of Columbus, within a few slots of each other. Bottom line – it's gonna be one or the other (if any). If I knew which one would be 'the man' for Columbus the next time Sergei Bobrovsky got hurt, then I'd sell my website and just make my living in Vegas. Until we know which one for sure – they both have value as prospects. Soderstrom and Sorokin (NYI) have the same situation.
'Prospect' for these purposes are goaltenders with 39 games of NHL experience or fewer. (Domingue is my mistake – call him a 'bonus' prospect)
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| Aug 20 | Goalie | Team | Rating | Jul 20 | Tier |
| 1 | Matt Murray | PIT | 90.1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | Connor Hellebuyck | WPG | 75.0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Louis Domingue | ARI | 61.6 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Calvin Pickard | COL | 57.1 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Laurent Brossoit | EDM | 46.2 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Joonas Korpisalo | CBJ | 42.5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Malcolm Subban | BOS | 41.9 | 7 | 5 |
| 8 | Linus Ullmark | BUF | 41.2 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Marek Mazanec | NSH | 40.7 | 19 | 6 |
| 10 | Lars Johansson | CHI | 40.3 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Anton Forsberg | CBJ | 36.2 | 10 | 5 |
| 12 | J-F Berube | NYI | 34.4 | 11 | 5 |
| 13 | Anthony Stolarz | PHI | 28.2 | 12 | 4 |
| 14 | Scott Wedgewood | NJD | 28.2 | 13 | 5 |
| 15 | Thatcher Demko | VAN | 27.2 | 24 | 5 |
| 16 | Magnus Hellberg | NYR | 26.2 | 15 | 5 |
| 17 | Jon Gillies | CGY | 24.5 | 18 | 5 |
| 18 | Tristan Jarry | PIT | 23.5 | 17 | 6 |
| 19 | Ilya Samsonov | WAS | 21.8 | 20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kristers Gudlevskis | TBL | 21.7 | 14 | 6 |
| 21 | Jared Coreau | DET | 20.9 | 21 | 5 |
| 22 | Jordan Binnington | STL | 20.5 | 22 | 6 |
| 23 | Ilya Sorokin | NYI | 20.4 | 23 | 5 |
| 24 | Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 20.1 | 25 | 6 |
| 25 | Juuse Saros | NSH | 20.1 | 26 | 5 |
| 26 | Linus Soderstrom | NYI | 19.8 | 27 | 5 |
| 27 | Ville Husso | STL | 19.4 | 28 | 5 |
| 28 | Alex Lyon | PHI | 19.1 | 29 | 5 |
| 29 | Pheonix Copley | STL | 19.0 | 30 | 5 |
| 30 | Joni Ortio | UFA | 18.8 | 16 | 5 |
| 31 | Matt O'Connor | OTT | 17.0 | 32 | 6 |
| 32 | Eric Comrie | WPG | 16.9 | 33 | 6 |
| 33 | Sam Brittain | FLA | 16.4 | 34 | 6 |
| 34 | Zach Fucale | MON | 16.1 | 35 | 6 |
| 35 | Nick Ellis | EDM | 15.3 | 36 | 5 |
| 36 | Garret Sparks | TOR | 15.2 | 31 | 4 |
| 37 | Philippe Desrosiers | DAL | 12.8 | 37 | 7 |
| 38 | Samuel Montembeault | FLA | 12.6 | 38 | 6 |
| 39 | Vitek Vanecek | WAS | 12.4 | 39 | 6 |
| 40 | Alex Nedeljkovic | CAR | 12.4 | 40 | 6 |
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Domingue has 46 starts?
Okay…so it’s a work in progress?
I hope you enjoyed otherwise!
Really glad this came to fruition. Since SJ doesn’t even really have a backup (Armalis maybe), surprised they don’t have anybody on this list. Although I can see Jones getting 70 starts which may limit the value to a backup anyway.
Dell is likely going to be part of the competition, along with Armalis. Sharks will likely bring a UFA goalie into camp as well.
Adding to the mix is Troy Grosenick being on a one-way contract next year, but Dell has overtaken him on the depth chart and Armalis makes the fight for #3 on the list even more competitive
I most definitely enjoyed it, as I do all of your work. Thank you!
Thank you for this ranking Dobber! As volatile as young goalies can be, I like the names listed from a fantasy perspective as they seem to be ranked with a mix of potential/skill and ETA in the NHL.
Thanks Bass!
Thanks for putting this together Dobber! Wanted to ask a couple questions:
– Why is Nedeljkovic listed so low on this list? Had an exceptional season last year. Is a B+ prospect in your rankings and seems to have a pretty easy path to the Hurricanes net.
– Is Thatcher Demko down on the list a little bit because you believe Markstrom will keep the goal in Vancouver for a few years?
– I’m assuming if a guy named Brayden Holtby didn’t exist that Ilya Samsonov would sky rocket up these rankings?
Thanks again!
Thanks BF! I’m glad you like it. First crack at it…
– Ned is low because he’s minimum 5 years away. Just not close. Exceptional season? 20-14 with 907 SV% exceptional? And then .903 in the playoffs? If that was exceptional, what would you call Carey Price in 06-07?
– Demko, yes, but he’s literally 1.0 rating points away from being 12th behind a bunch of goalies who could feasibly help out THIS year
– There would still be Grubauer. Samsonov would move up for sure, but either way – I don’t even draft 18,19 year olds, as I said in the intro. Too many 21+ year olds who you won’t have to wait as long on
Don’t shoot the messenger :)
On Nedeljkovic: “June 2016 – Nedeljkovic had a phenomenal season last year, showcasing his ability at both the OHL and World Junior level. Easily Team USA’s best player at the World Juniors, the Ohio native finished the tournament with a 1.66 GAA and a .943 save percentage, leading his team to a bronze medal finish.
After his move from Flint to Niagara, Nedeljkovic settled in, helping to lead the IceDogs to a deep playoff run where he was undoubtedly the team MVP on most nights. Given that Carolina just signed Cam Ward to a two-year extension, its looking more and more likely that Nedeljkovic will arrive in the NHL for the 2018-19 season as the teams starter.” Kevin LeBlanc
I’m surprised Sorokin is so low. He obliterated the KHL last year and has a fairly easy path to a starting role on a very good team when his contract is up there.
I love him. Possibly my favorite prospect.
Signed through 2018 and has Soderstrom to contend with, and what will happen with Greiss and Halak? With goalies, they can move from 40th to 5th with one piece of news. Or 5th to 40th again with another.
If you like a guy, just ignore the fluctuations and hope that at the end of the winding path he gets a fair shot in the NHL.
I think this is a fair spot for Sorokin. He may be the best goalie in the world outside of the NHL but there is a 0% chance he plays in the NHL this year, close to 0% for 2017-2018 and probably 50-50 at best beyond that. On the plus side, he did show up to the Isles’ prospect camp last month…
Thanks for finally making this list Dobber, nice work! I own both Saros (25th) and Gudlevskis (20th) – i always internally had Saros ranked higher as I believe he’s next in line to a diminishing Rinne, but Gudlevskis (is he even as good a goalie straight up?) has Vasilevskiy to deal with for years. Would appreciate some insight. Thanks.