Ramblings: Looking for Value Through Disappointment, and Career Years (August 19)

Michael Clifford

2016-08-18

More players that disappointed in 2015-2016, and career years to avoid in this year's drafts.

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First, a few words about some players that should come into the season with a depressed ADP based off a poor season (or seasons).

Evander Kane

Clearly, the first thing to be stated here is we need to see what the fate of Kane will be from both the Buffalo Sabres, and the NHL. He is facing several counts of non-criminal harassment, and while the league said they don’t intend for any further discipline at this time, who knows if that will change. The morality of this type of behaviour aside, from a fantasy perspective, the uncertainty is a concern.

Kane’s issue on the ice has long been his “shoot from anywhere” stance on hockey. He is consistently one of the longest distance shooters on his teams, according to Behind The Net, and that naturally leads to a low shooting percentage.

Some of those shots have to find their way into the net, though. A big reason why Kane hasn’t had more than 20 goals in a season since 2011-2012 is that he can’t play a full season. Health is a concern here, but I would be more concerned if he were a 30-year-old, rather than going into his Age 25 season. To that end, Kane’s goals per game mark is slightly higher than Patric Hornqvist and Daniel Sedin over the last four seasons, and slightly lower than Taylor Hall and Blake Wheeler:

If Kane can even play 75 games, because of his shot volume alone, barring an absolute crash in shooting percentage, he’s a 20-goal scorer. A big problem was Kane’s assist rate cratered last year to 0.23 per game, the lowest since his rookie season. His assist rate per minute tied a career-low, and was less than half the rate he posted from 2010-2014. Buffalo was one of the lowest scoring teams in the league last year, but with Jack Eichel an