Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17

steve laidlaw

2017-09-29

Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17

With the 2017-18 season looming and new player point total Over/Under bets to place we should first is time to review the results of last season’s prop bets. I made 17 bets (10 over, seven under) and hit on 10 of them (58.9%) banking a small profit. Typically, one needs to win 58% of his bets to overcome the vig and consistently make profit. I hit that margin but just barely.

If you recall, I polled my Twitter followers on what they felt would be the outcome of each of the 104 Over/Under propositions available. I’ve included those polls below. People picked the over in 71 of the 104 props, were dead split on two of them and picked the under for 31 players. While we are naturally optimists it’s illogical to expect that many bets to go over, not when it’s all too easy for players to miss time with injury.

65 of the props went under, which falls in line with what you’d expect in the abstract. I also suspect that Vegas takes advantage of the natural optimism of bettors, leaning high with their totals in most cases. With the under hitting on 62.5% of props this year, there was money to be made simply hitting the under across the board.

Of course, that’s not exactly fun, which is why many of us bet. Hitting the over on Patrik Laine before the All-Star break was a lot more satisfying than needing injuries to Bryan Little and Sidney Crosby to hit the under. Still, if you are in the business of making money, going under is the way to go.

That isn’t always the case. In 2015-16, only 52.9% of the 104 props hit the under, which would have had you breaking even. Over the past three seasons the under has hit on 63.8% of the 318 player point total props. On average, it seems that you would do well to spray the under.

You would also do well to not take the advice of the pre-season polls. As you have probably guessed, the good voters did not perform very well, hitting on 47 of the 102 propositions with a decisive winner, coming in below 50%. They did just well enough that any individual might be tricked into following along but not so well as to make money. We’ll see how they do next year but this is certainly not a vote of confidence for the intelligence of crowds in this specific field.

 

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 73 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – OVER

Final Tally: 1 point – UNDER

Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 85 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 57 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 63 points – OVER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 74 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 89 points – OVER

Final Tally: 33 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 41 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – OVER

Final Tally: 51 points – OVER

Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 72 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 32 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 48 points – OVER

Final Tally: 68 points – OVER

Final Tally: 100 points – OVER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 77 points – OVER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 43 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 46 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 66 points – OVER

Final Tally: 65 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – OVER

Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 54 points – OVER

Final Tally: 29 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 67 points – OVER

Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – OVER

Final Tally: 66 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – OVER

Final Tally: 59 points – OVER

Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 71 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 72 points – OVER

Final Tally: 70 points – OVER

Final Tally: 89 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 68 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 75 points – OVER

Final Tally: 85 points – OVER

Final Tally: 20 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – OVER

Final Tally: 62 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 52 points – OVER

Final Tally: 34 points – OVER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 24 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 59 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 86 points – OVER

Final Tally: 74 points – OVER

Final Tally: 47 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – OVER

Final Tally: 82 points – OVER

Final Tally: 64 points – OVER

*

To take part in the fun this year give me a follow @SteveLaidlaw.

Leave A Comment

Related Posts

UPCOMING GAMES

May 06 - 19:05 WSH vs CAR
May 06 - 21:05 VGK vs EDM

Starting Goalies

View on GoaliePost App

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MITCH MARNER TOR
SAM REINHART FLA
SAM BENNETT FLA
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
WILLIAM NYLANDER TOR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
ANTHONY STOLARZ TOR
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
THATCHER DEMKO VAN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYI Players
22.5 KYLE PALMIERI ANDERS LEE BO HORVAT
20.9 HUDSON FASCHING PIERRE ENGVALL CASEY CIZIKAS
19.6 MAXIM TSYPLAKOV JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU SIMON HOLMSTROM

DobberHockey Podcasts

Fantasy Hockey Life: Fluto Shinzawa Boston Bruins Preview
Audio Player

Fluto Shinzawa of the New York Times joins the show to break down the Boston Bruins. Jesse and Victor ask him about David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie, Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt, Matthew Poitras, Fraser Minten, Charlie McAvoy, Mason Lohrei, Hampus Lindholm, Jeremy Swayman, and Joonas Korpisalo. Cat’s instincts covers prospect goalies Brandon Bussi and […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: TIDY Champs Roundtable
Audio Player

What does it take to win a division of our Tiered Dynasty league? Champs Sasha, Scott, Kevin, and top tier champ Mason Black join Victor, Jesse, and TIDY co-commish Simon for a roundtable chat. It’s a great dynasty strategy talk. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by […]

Keeping Karlsson: End-of-Season Beginnings, Vibesgoaliebord
Audio Player

Elan and Brian express their interest in players on the verge of playing their first NHL games, make some playoff predictions with no promises, and do a vibes-based draft for goalies they are willing to commit to rostering for the entirety of the next NHL season.

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: