Digging deep on the forwards for ANA, ARI, CGY, CHI – are the trends for real?

Real or Imagined: Forwards Part 1 (2016)

Having covered goalies and defensemen thus far in the series it is now time for the first of a four-part examination of the Western Conference forwards. For forwards it is important to look for high-shot and high scoring-chance rates, as shot rate in particular has been shown to be repeatable. Barring a high shot-rate, primary assists are important as those indicate skill whereas secondary assists indicate a little more luck. The variability of shot percentage and secondary assists is why looking at IPP, and significant changes in IPP, is also important. The aforementioned factors are all controllable by the player to a higher degree than ‘luck’ based factors such as shooting percentage and secondary assists. Therefore look for trends in player controllable factors but possible regression, positive or negative, in ‘luck’ based factors. Finally, general time on ice as well as share of power-play time, are also important factors. It is important to look for trends in these areas as well as it signifies coach usage, which is out of the control of the player but not a factor related to regression.

The recommendations in this column are all for this season only.

Anaheim

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	EV OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Andrew Cogliano	32	15.00	2.1	8	8	0	11.0	6.9	2.3	0.68	Hold
Corey Perry	32	18.70	63.8	7	19	12	7.6	8.4	2.9	1.94	Hold
Antoine Vermette	32	16.08	32.3	6	6	3	12.0	8.5	1.6	0.74	Soft Sell
Jakob Silfverberg	32	18.17	32.3	8	13	3	8.7	9.6	2.9	0.97	Hold
Ryan Kesler	32	21.35	59.8	12	15	13	16.0	8.6	2.3	1.90	Hold
Nick Ritchie	30	13.75	11.1	7	4	1	11.9	7.6	2.0	1.17	Hold
Ryan Getzlaf	29	20.50	65.4	3	24	12	5.6	8.6	1.9	0.61	Hold
Ryan Garbutt	27	9.17	1.3	2	1	0	7.7	6.6	1.0	0.26	Sell
Jared Boll	21	6.30	0.9	0	1	0	0.0	5.9	0.3	0.14	Sell
Rickard Rakell	21	17.30	40.2	14	7	6	23.0	13.8	2.9	1.05	Soft Sell
Chris Wagner	21	9.80	2.4	2	0	0	10.0	3.0	1.0	0.52	Waive
Joseph Cramarossa	20	10.70	1.7	2	3	0	13.3	9.3	0.8	0.42	Hold
Ondrej Kase	16	13.00	11.3	1	4	0	4.3	5.6	1.4	0.40	Hold
Logan Shaw	12	8.65	0.2	1	0	0	5.3	8.1	1.6	0.09	Sell

Ryan Kesler already has more shots off rebounds this year than in either of the last two years and his scoring-chance rate has nearly doubled from those years. That helps to explain the unusually high shooting percentage, the rate stats suggest that his production should not take a huge hit when regression hits. Kesler’s most common linemates Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano are not having the same type of season but they are seeing a boost in production just based off the overall increase in shot numbers, both quality and quantity, that the Ducks are seeing with Kesler on the ice. This boost is not unique to Kesler as both Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have an on-ice expected-goals-per-60 over four at even strength. They are the perfect pair as Getzlaf has become an extreme pass-first player and Perry reaps the rewards and is averaging 6.2 scoring-chances-per-60 at even strength. The third member of the top line, Rickard Rakell, is not seeing the same improvement in quality of shot but he is taking more shots than ever before at nearly 10 shots per 60 minutes at even strength. The shooting percentage is nearly double his previous high, thus while he is due an improvement over last year this scoring pace will not last. The Ducks bottom six features some interesting depth options, as Nick Ritchie is the Ducks’ best multi-category option and is on pace for over 200 hits this year but does not get enough time to get much in the way of points. On the other hand Jared Boll has lost almost all his value while Garbutt’s value has plummeted and shows no sign of a rebound. Antoine Vermette has been streaky and still sports a high shooting percentage. He also provides sneaky multi-category value. The Ducks have some young depth in their bottom six in Ondrej Kase, Joseph Cramarossa, Stefan Noesen and Logan Shaw but none play enough to be worth much although Cramarossa provides some under the radar multi-category value.

Arizona

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Radim Vrbata	31	17.00	57.2	8	12	4	8.7	8.2	3.0	0.70	Soft Sell
Jordan Martinook	31	16.35	13.2	6	7	1	12.2	8.0	1.6	0.63	Hold/ Soft Sell
Shane Doan	31	15.30	30.3	3	6	2	4.3	7.3	2.2	0.77	Hold/Soft Sell
Tobias Rieder	29	17.15	22.3	7	6	3	11.3	5.8	2.1	0.86	Hold
Anthony Duclair	28	13.20	29.6	1	4	0	3.0	8.9	1.2	0.44	Hold
Ryan White	28	10.40	1.3	1	3	0	4.8	3.4	0.8	0.21	Hold
Christian Dvorak	27	13.95	23.9	2	7	1	9.1	9.0	0.8	0.31	Hold
Lawson Crouse	27	11.35	0.5	2	1	0	6.7	2.6	1.1	0.38	Hold
Max Domi	26	17.25	54.3	5	11	4	8.6	8.7	2.2	0.77	Soft Buy
Jamie McGinn	26	13.45	19.6	6	3	0	12.2	7.6	1.9	0.92	Soft Sell
Martin Hanzal	26	18.20	56.8	6	4	4	10.3	6.2	2.2	1.36	Hold
Laurent Dauphin	20	11.00	0.6	2	1	0	8.0	5.1	1.3	0.40	Sell
Brad Richardson	16	15.35	3.7	5	4	0	20.0	7.2	1.6	0.50	Waive
Brendan Perlini	8	13.95	20.5	2	1	0	25.0	5.6	1.0	1.00	Gamble
Peter Holland	3	15.30	12.4	0	2	0	0.0	5.3	1.7	0.40	Soft Buy
Josh Jooris	3	13.45 📢 advertisement:	1.5	0	0	0	0.0	6.1	0.7	0.07	Sell

Arizona ranks seventh-last in shots-per -60 minutes, second-last in expected-goals-per-60 minutes, third-last in scoring-chances-per-60 minutes and sixth -last in goals-per-60 minutes. Other than their team shooting percentage being at a ridiculous low right now there is really no sign of their offense improving. That means that this team is largely a ‘stay away’ for leagues that count plus-minus. Here are some players that could provide enough value to buck that trend. Martin Hanzal stands out on this team because he generates scoring chances and shots and while his low on-ice shooting percentage at 6.2% points to some upside. He is injury-prone and will miss at least 20 games but is usually good for 40 points nonetheless. Ryan White is another multi-category option with two penalty minutes, three hits and half a block per game. The low personal and on-ice shooting percentages provide some potentially nice upside. Anthony Duclair is a possibility because his shooting percentage is so dreadfully low but he does not shoot enough to maximize the value of any regression. Max Domi gets a soft buy just because he is out injured and as such his value is low compared to his potential production. With Domi out, Crouse and Perlini bounce up and down the lineup. Crouse provides some nice peripheral value with two hits and one penalty minute per game. Perlini has some intriguing offensive numbers as one of only two Coyotes averaging a scoring chance per game and has recently skated with Martin Hanzal. Dvorak has not done much offensively but he gets sheltered minutes and second unit power-play time. If he picks his game up a little a 40-point season is certainly possible and he adds peripheral value.

Calgary

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Matt Stajan	33	13.40	2.4	3	9	0	10.7	7.9	0.8	0.30	Hold
Sam Bennett	33	15.50	37.5	7	9	2	13.0	8.4	1.6	0.48	Hold
Troy Brouwer	33	17.35	54.2	7	8	6	15.6	7.3	1.4	0.61	Hold
Mikael Backlund	33	17.55	38.9	5	10	4	6.4	6.7	2.4	0.76	Soft Buy
Michael Frolik	33	16.30	6.2	6	9	0	8.6	6.5	2.1	0.64	Hold
Alex Chiasson	33	13.50	8.2	5	6	1	11.1	7.7	1.4	0.61	Hold
Micheal Ferland	33	10.70	8.7	5	6	3	13.5	5.2	1.1	0.48	Hold
Sean Monahan	33	17.85	57.0	10	9	7	15.2	6.7	2.0	1.09	Hold
Matt Tkachuk	29	14.33	35.3	6	9	3	11.8	7.3	1.8	0.86	Hold
Johnny Gaudreau	23	19.05	59.5	7	14	7	11.7	7.0	2.6	0.78	Hold
Kris Versteeg	21	13.60	33.8	4	8	3	14.3	13.0	1.3	0.48	Sell
Lance Bouma	17	11.30	1.2	1	2	0	11.1	7.4	0.5	0.29	Sell
Freddie Hamilton	16	9.7	0.7	1	0	0	6.3	7.3	1.0	0.44	Sell
Garnet Hathaway	14	9.25	1.5	1	3	0	10.0	14.3	0.7	0.29	Waive

Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and Matt Tkachuk are dominant as a unit as the Flames take nearly 60% of the shots and score 67% of the goals when that line is on the ice. This is especially impressive given that they start the bulk of their shift in the defensive end. None of them puts up particularly staggering individual numbers but as a group they are impressive. The one area they lack slightly is in terms of scoring chances, which could explain the lower on-ice shooting percentage. The Flames dynamic duo has been split up after starting the season slowly and both have responded as each is over a point per game in December. Whereas the Backlund line is dominant the Flames; other lines are a mixed bag. The Monahan-Versteeg-Brouwer line is a mess that is riding the percentages which could hurt each member of the line. Brouwer and Monahan will be fine because of their spots on the power play but Versteeg is in a lot of regression danger. The Gaudreau-Bennett-Chiasson line is interesting because they lose the Corsi and Fenwick battle but outshoot and out-chance their opponents. They are also riding the percentages but their success is much more sustainable. The Flames’ fourth line provides some interesting value in Matt Stajan who does a bit of everything and Micheal Ferland who provided more value when Kris Versteeg was out but makes some nice peripheral contributions with decent production. Garnet Hathaway was showing signs of being a nice cheap multi-category option but with Versteeg’s return he has little value.

Chicago

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Artemi Panarin	33	19.70	66.8	14	18	9	15.7	10.4	2.7	1.00	Hold
Richard Panik	33	14.00	25.9	8	6	3	14.3	9.0	1.7	0.81	Soft Sell
Marcus Kruger	33	14.10	1.5	2	8	0	5.6	8.4	1.1	0.31	Hold
Patrick Kane	33	21.70	73.7	9	22	9	8.7	8.8	3.1	0.97	Hold
Artem Anisimov	32	18.20	53.4	14	13	6	25.5	12.2	1.7	1.29	Sell
Marian Hossa	32	17.75	35.3	16	7	6	21.6	7.2	2.3	0.97	Hard Sell
Dennis Rasmussen	30	12.45	1.1	3	3	0	8.6	5.8	1.2	0.34	Hold
Ryan Hartman	28	12.17	4.5	5	4	0	8.5	6.8	2.1	0.78	Soft Buy
Tyler Motte	26	11.90	2.1	3	3	0	8.1	8.3	1.4	0.42	Hold.Sell
Nick Schmaltz	26	11.80	13.4	1	3	1	6.3	3.2	0.6	0.27	Hold/Sell
Jordin Tootoo	25	6.90	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	1.3	1.0	0.33	Hold
Jonathan Toews	24	20.40	49.6	4	9	4	6.7	7.6	2.5	1.22	Hard Buy
Vinnie Hinostroza	24	11.10	2.6	2	3	0	6.9	4.3	1.2	0.52	Sell
Andrew Desjardins	16	10.30	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	1.7	1.4	0.53	Hold

This is the time to buy Jonathan Toews stock. His even-strength shooting percentage is only 2.3% despite his scoring-chance rate climbing for the third straight year. His numbers very closely mirror his numbers from 2013-14 when he had a shooting percentage of 14%, although that was with Brandon Saad. Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane are both around a point per game. Kane is more likely to continue at this pace regardless of linemates, if only because he almost always gets the best available. The surprise has been Artem Anisimov who is scoring on 25% of his shots. Normally he would get a ‘hard sell’ recommendation but it looks like he is becoming a pass-first player. This is more of an adaptation to playing with two volume shooters than anything else but it does mean he can be very selective in his shots. That would explain the falling shot rate in combination with his scoring chance rate rocketing up. Conversely, this has all the appearances of a last gasp for Hossa as his shot rate has fallen from 10 to seven shots per 60. His scoring-chance rate has also fallen from 3.8 to 2.8 per 60. Despite that, he is scoring on 21% of his shots and scoring almost half a goal more than expected per 60 minutes. Richard Panik is another horse dying a slow death as he no longer plays much with Toews and Hossa and his shooting percentage is coming back down to earth. The Hawks do not have much scoring outside of their top six, as the third member of the Toews line is ever-changing. Ryan Hartman looks to have the inside track at the moment, and has the best rate stats. He also provides the most peripheral value.

Watch for Part 2 later Monday – COL, DAL and EDM

Statistics for this week’s column come from Dobberhockey.com, Stats.hockeyanalysis.com and Corsica.hockey

One Comment

Paul Switzer 2016-12-19 at 17:48Log in to Reply

As someone who watches the Blackhawks, Toews is not a strong buy in my book. If I owned him, I be looking to sell. He looks hurt and nothing like his former self.