December 18, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-12-18

Examining the Johansen healthy scratch, a barn-burner in Arizona, Tarasenko's top five case and more.

What a stacked ledger of games. On nights like last night I don’t even know where to begin these ramblings. Just a daunting task. I guess we’ll start with the shootout in the desert…

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Curtis McElhinney and Anders Lindback started against one another. No question how this one ended. It was as though McElhinney and Lindback were playing dodge-puck. I think they both won. You want to increase scoring? Force teams to start goalies like Lindback and McElhinney more often.

I hate to dump on these guys since they have reached the pinnacle. They are among the top 100 in their chosen field. Not many guys get to that level. As far as the standard of the average NHL puck-stopper, they are below that. It could really pay to spot start any player going up against the Coyotes or Blue Jackets in the next month or so.

By the way, Lindback got yanked after four goals allowed and Dobber favourite Louis Domingue came on in relief. Dobber and I engaged in a friendly Twitter discussion on the matter. Rather than paraphrase I’ll just leave the transcript here:

Dobber: I've been musing all week about how Domingue could prove to be a decent waiver G. Didn't take Lindback long to cede the net to him.

Laidlaw: I'm not convinced Domingue does much better.

Dobber: Uh…a pylon could do worlds better.

Dobber: Tippett makes a star out of mediocre goalies. Now he finally has one. We'll see.

Laidlaw: Has he done it without Sean Burke (the former Coyotes goalie coach)?

Dobber: Point. But I think the issue is less with goalie training and more with coach style.

Laidlaw: Have you watched the ‘Yotes this year? They aren't suppressing shit.

Dobber: Yeah…I know…I didn't say my theory was flawless. I just know one thing – Lindback really, really sucks. With that as a basis, I ran with it.

Laidlaw: To be fair, the proactive move is to take a shot (on Domingue) because you never know.

Dobber: Ugh. Well that's that. If David Clarkson scored on (Domingue), I have no answer #WorthAShot.

Laidlaw: Ultimately, I think the Yotes should have claimed Anton Khudobin. Could have been Ilya Bryzgalov 2.0.

Dobber: Confirmed: neither the empty net nor Lindback are better than Domingue.

This game would ultimately finish 7-5 with the dozen goals coming on just 53 shots. At least one of those goals was an empty-netter though.

It should be mentioned that Curtis McElhinney toughed it out for the win after allowing five goals and after a rough collision with Max Domi. No fault by Domi there but the concussion spotter should probably be fired. Look at how McElhinney’s bare head bounces off the ice. How are we supposed to take the NHL’s concussion stance seriously if guys can bareknuckle fight or smash their head off the ice and stay in the game?

The fighting thing is a separate issue but you can’t tell me there’s any rationale for not giving McElhinney concussion testing after that. Well no rationale other than ignorance.

Back to the action…

The Blue Jackets were without their starting goaltender as Sergei Bobrovsky remains on the shelf. They were also down their top pair of defensemen as both Jack Johnson and David Savard are day-to-day.

Where fantasy owners got really upset was that the Blue Jackets were without their top center as well as Ryan Johansen was scratched after digging himself deeper into the doghouse.

I really hate how everyone seems to be blaming this all on John Tortorella. The stance is myopic (focusing just on fantasy production) and ignorant (having no actually knowledge of the situation). I don’t claim to know what is going on but I do know that this situation played out in Tampa Bay between Tortorella and Vincent Lecavalier. Lecavalier ended up having the best years of his career under Tortorella and they even won a Cup together. Isn’t it possible that Tortorella is doing this all right? What if this is all part of the process of making Johansen a better player? You can’t just entirely dismiss the possibility.

For Johansen’s part he is saying all the right things, taking full responsibility for getting benched:

I made a few mistakes, (stuff) we've been going over as a team, things we have to erase from our game. Full responsibility. My fault.

Whether he is sincere or not is up for debate but I don’t see how you can’t consider taking it at face value. Especially not when we can objectively say that Johansen has played poorly. We can also surmise that that poor play contributed to the previous coach getting fired. Now folks are getting angry at the new coach for demanding accountability? How about wanting accountability out of the player?

I’ve got Johansen in one pool. I just want him to play better. He wasn’t doing it before Tortorella. Maybe he can get it together after this wakeup call.

Or maybe he gets traded and then who knows what happens.

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Without Johansen in the lineup Alexander Wennberg stepped up as top-line centerman. He had three points. Brandon Saad also had three points teaming up with Wennberg to lead the offense. Saad had just recently worked his way out of Tortorella’s doghouse himself so this is a positive way to get his season going.

Saad is now on pace for 52 points, which is right about where he belongs.

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Anthony Duclair sat out this one due to illness.

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Okay, now how about some games where goaltending wasn’t an issue?

Four shutouts to report last night.

Corey Crawford registered his league-high fifth shutout, which is driving him towards being the top goalie in points-only formats that have healthy shutout bonuses. That’s three shutouts in his last four starts as the Blackhawks are making mincemeat of opponents on their current homestand.

The line of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Teuvo Teravainen finally went off combining to score all the points on three separate goals. Three points apiece each. Too bad they are too inconsistent otherwise these guys would be in higher demand. As it stands, Teravainen remains waiver fodder in the average pool, only good for spot starts.

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Jonathan Quick bounced back after allowing five goals to the Senators earlier this week, stopping all 45 shots he faced against the struggling Canadiens. Just an impressive display from a goaltender who still doesn’t get quite enough credit.

I do think that some of the anti-Quick talk is just fantasy based nonsense because Quick has only ever had one elite fantasy season. I think we need to retire that notion because Quick is having another elite season. He is on pace for over 40 wins and has a save percentage of .920.

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For Montreal’s sake, Brendan Gallagher can’t get back soon enough. In 11 games without the winger the Canadiens have scored just 22 goals, a rate of exactly two goals per game, which is worse than all but one team (we’ll get to them in a second.)

The Canadiens have continued to outshoot teams like crazy over this stretch so it could just be some random noise. Of course, the outshooting could also be the result of score effects as the Canadiens have been losing most of these games without Gallagher.

The Canadiens certainly have a need to add depth if they want to really take a run at the Cup but it’s probably not the move everyone talks about. I don’t understand the whole Eric Staal to Montreal rumour.

For one, Staal isn’t the same guy he used to be. I’m not sure he definitely helps push a team over the top.

Second, and more importantly, the Canadiens don’t need the “big centerman” everyone has been wishing for. Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais make for a great 1-2-3 up the middle. Staal just throws a wrench into that. They finally made the move with Galchenyuk going to center full time. Moving him to wing is a step backwards.

And if the idea is that Staal would play wing well you might find some cheaper and more effective players at that position. Plus, the real need for the Canadiens is on the right side, which is the opposite of where Staal has been playing when he has shifted to wing.

The Gallagher injury just highlights this need. Beyond Gallagher the Canadiens have Dale Weise and… and… Can you even name their other RWers?

Alex Semin was supposed to be a solution here but that flopped. They will wind up with a RW from somewhere by the deadline. Maybe Lee Stempniak if the Devils fall out of the race?

I am loathe to see the Devils’ Threeway broken up but if New Jersey isn’t making the playoffs Stempniak could help someone like he did the Jets last year.

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Slightly less impressive than Quick’s 45-save shutout was Chad Johnson’s 44-save shutout of the Anaheim Ducks. No real surprise here given the Ducks’ offensive woes though. Anaheim is the one team still averaging less than two goals per game. Just an unfathomable collapse.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Getzlaf is shouldering the blame:

I have 1 goal. So it starts with me.

I know Getzlaf isn’t a huge goal-scorer but to only have one a third of the way into the season is some kind of slump.

All the time off (the Ducks hadn’t played since last Friday) did not seem to help matters at all. Nor did it seem to get us any closer to the return of Freddie Andersen as John Gibson started his ninth in a row. Are they really waiting until their back-to-back in New York on Monday and Tuesday to get Andersen back in or will he go on Saturday in New Jersey?

Jiri Sekac made his return for the Ducks and skated 16:30, mostly on the second line although he did get a spin on the top line for a bit. Here are the Ducks’ lines from last night:

15.25%  EV           KESLER,RYAN – SEKAC,JIRI – SILFVERBERG,JAKOB

14.83%  EV           COGLIANO,ANDREW – HAGELIN,CARL – HORCOFF,SHAWN

13.14%  EV           GETZLAF,RYAN – PERRY,COREY – RAKELL,RICKARD

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9.32%    EV           MAROON,PATRICK – SANTORELLI,MICHAEL – STEWART,CHRIS

6.36%    EV           GETZLAF,RYAN – PERRY,COREY – SEKAC,JIRI

These lines will almost certainly change by Christmas.

Five SOG for Sekac, by the way.

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Last shutout of the night was the most surprising. Steve Mason blanked the Canucks. The Canucks getting held off the board isn’t actually that surprising. Beyond the Sedins and the odd eruption from Radim Vrbata, this team has no offense.

Mason getting a shutout against anyone is a shocker considering how he has played. Figures that he’d go and pitch a shutout and Michal Neuvirth would get rocked in his last start after I went and declared Neuvirth the new #1 in Philly. I still like Neuvirth better, mind you.

Jakub Voracek has a three-game scoring streak going. Two of those games have been while skating LW on the second line with Sean Couturier and Wayne Simmonds. That whole line is heating up.

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Alex Burrows was promoted to the top line with the Sedins, which maybe gets you thinking about a pick up. More importantly, it totally wipes Jannik Hansen off the map for potential waiver wire studs. Hansen hadn’t done a lick in a while anyhow so this just puts him to rest.

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Random couple of Sabres’ stats here:

Sam Reinhart has skated over 16 minutes in 11 straight games. He has four goals and seven points in that span, as well as 27 SOG. Starting to find his groove.

Rasmus Ristolainen, as good as he has been, has yet to record a single penalty this season. That’s actually a huge positive for him as an actual player. In fantasy, we still count PIM as a positive for some stupid reason so this lack of “grit” is actually hindering his value a little bit. I don’t think there is an owner out there who isn’t enjoying the points for PIM trade-off, however.

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Interesting look at the Oilers’ goaltenders based on expected save percentages:

In fact, the difference between Nilsson’s and Talbot’s performances thus far, if the Oilers’s quality of shots against were at league average for both goaltenders, would be the equivalent of Nilsson being a .921 goaltender, and Talbot at .903.

That’s interesting. Nilsson has been the better of the two by any measure though Talbot has played well in starting two of the last three. Nilsson still looks like the guy moving forward.

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Streaky Brandon Pirri went off with three points last night to extend his scoring streak to five games.

I don’t see this lasting. Check out the Panthers’ lines:

25%        EV           BARKOV,ALEKSANDER – HUBERDEAU,JONATHAN – JAGR,JAROMIR

19.64%  EV           KNIGHT,CORBAN – PIRRI,BRANDON – SHAW,LOGAN

19.05%  EV           JOKINEN,JUSSI – SMITH,REILLY – TROCHECK,VINCENT

15.48%  EV           GRIMALDI,ROCCO – HOWDEN,QUINTON – THORNTON,SHAWN

2.98%    PP           JOKINEN,JUSSI – PIRRI,BRANDON – SMITH,REILLY – TROCHECK,VINCENT

2.38%    PP           BARKOV,ALEKSANDER – HUBERDEAU,JONATHAN – JAGR,JAROMIR

Third line duties with second unit PP time? I’m not feeling this for Pirri.

I would rather have Reilly Smith off the Panthers. He quietly hit double-digits for goals with his fourth in the past five games.

Florida, with their win over New Jersey, pulled into a tie with the Devils for the second wildcard slot in the East. It is way too early for that to be really meaningful but the point is that the Panthers are making serious noise. Their goal differential of plus-10 is not only positive but it’s the sixth best in the East and 10th best in the entire league. It is mostly the goalies that have carried the Panthers as Roberto Luongo has been a borderline top-10 fantasy goaltender and Al Montoya has been lights out as the backup.

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Garrett Sparks got the start for the Leafs but hurt himself and had to leave the game. Jonathan Bernier came on in relief and ultimately was saddled with the loss after giving up three goals including the overtime winner.

Bernier will get the start on Saturday. Sounds like a good night to load up on Kings.

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Another goalie injury as the Rangers’ backup Antti Raanta took a shot off the head mid-way through the first and had to leave. Henrik Lundqvist came on in relief and received the brunt of the Wild attack giving up four goals in a losing effort.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s ramblings, it does sound like the Rangers will get Derek Stepan and Kevin Klein back tonight so their defensive ways may be resumed.

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Semyon Varlamov is scorching hot right now. He has won five straight and has given up just five goals in that span. All of Varlamov’s seven appearances in December have been quality starts and he has lost just one of those.

Varlamov’s name was one that popped up when I made my list of top-five fantasy goalies but I wouldn’t put him in there. He has incredible talent but he is too inconsistent and injury prone to get that kind of billing. Plus, I don’t have faith in the team.

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Here come the Flames that everyone expected to see. That’s seven wins in a row and mostly in spite of their goaltenders (though Karri Ramo has been good in his past three appearances.)

Their defensemen have really started to find their groove. Kris Russell has five points in his last three games. I don’t really buy him as a fantasy contributor beyond leagues scoring blocked shots though. This is just a random binge. The important guys are Mark Giordano (scoreless in his last three but had six in six before that), TJ Brodie (just had a seven-game scoring streak snapped), Dennis Wideman (also scoreless in his last three but had five in four prior), and Dougie Hamilton (six points in the last seven games).

That’s not to say that Russell isn’t important. He just doesn’t carry the same fantasy value as those other names. He has factored into reducing Hamilton’s minutes of late though it hasn’t slowed the big defenseman down.

Wideman was limited to just 12 minutes of action last night after getting into a rare scrap with Patrick Sharp. He did eventually return to action though so it doesn’t seem there are any long-term concerns here.

Paging Jiri Hudler

I know he hasn’t been skating with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau lately but somehow the winger has just three points during this seven-game winning streak. I sense he is hampered by an injury that cost him a few games earlier in the year. Also, maybe some lingering effects of the flu that ran through the team. He has skated under 15 minutes in each of the last three games.

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Is it possible to quietly win the Rocket Richard trophy? Vladimir Tarasenko is certainly testing that possibility. Look, Patrick Kane’s scoring run and the never-ending slumps of some of the league’s brightest stars have been the dominant headlines so it’s easy for Tarasenko to just slip into the background but he just scored his 20th goal of the season to tie Jamie Benn for the league lead and is on pace for 50 goals. He’s a top 10 fantasy forward, with an argument to jump in and around the top five.

Points only, who would you rather have:

Tarasenko or Hall?

Tarasenko or Stamkos?

Tarasenko or Ovechkin?

Tarasenko or Tavares?

Tarasenko or Malkin?

Tarasenko or Giroux?

Tarasenko or Crosby?

These are all questions worth asking.

For what it’s worth, my answers: Tarasenko, Tarasenko, Tarasenko, Tavares, Malkin, Giroux, Crosby.

My main reasoning to not have him in the top five or ahead of those last four names is that I couldn’t see him winning a scoring title without some major injury help or unless the Blues go out and acquire Tarasenko’s version of Nicklas Backstrom or Martin St. Louis. Also, I prefer Hall’s talent/situation but the injuries are unnerving enough that I would take the Tarasenko baseline of excellence.

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Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

One Comment

  1. Jonathan Coretti 2015-12-18 at 11:26

    Well done Steve! I own Hudler and I think it's well past that time to cut bait on him. If he's not playing with Gaudreau and Monahan and getting PP2 time… he's not even worth a waiver add at this point. It seems like everyone on the Flames is finding their groove during this win streak except for Hudler who continues to dig a deeper hole. Worst part about this is that I know if he reclaims his spot with Gaudreau and Monahan he will be fantasy gold. Thoughts?

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