Ramblings: Backing Blues and Flames, Patrick Marleau, Alex Galchenyuk and more (Aug. 1)

Neil Parker

2017-08-01

Alex Galchenyuk - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

I'm doing a short video segment with OddSharks.com today on some NHL team totals. I'll share it in my next ramblings.

Here are a few quick-hit strategies I employ when looking to find value in team win over/unders for the NHL.

Considering that it typically takes far less to go wrong for the under to hit than what needs to go right for a team total to go over, generally, targeting team unders is a starting point.

Carey Price's injury in 2015-16 derailed the Canadiens. Florida was dealt blow after blow to its roster last season. Jack Eichel was hurt, John Tavares was hurt, and the Penguns lost six of their final 10 games heading into the playoffs. It's difficult to envision Pittsburgh not at least winning six of 10 with both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang in the lineup.

Those are cherry-picked examples off the top of my head without any correlation to whether a team topped or fell below their win total, but hopefully the point is obvious.

Looking ahead, if Henrik Lundqvist is injured for a month, and Ondrej Pavelec has to man the cage for 10 games, that could be the difference.

 

So, knowing that disaster can strike and cripple a team's over chance in short order, it's important to focus on depth. Teams that can mitigate player injuries because of their strength up and down the lineup are rare, but there are a few that jumped out from the middle range.

 

St. Louis Over 44.5 wins

The Blues won 46 games last season and went 22-8-2 after Mike Yeo took over behind the bench — those 22 wins were tied for most in the league from Feb. 1 through the end of the season.

However, what's most important is that St. Louis is better heading into 2017-18 than at any point last year. The blue line absorbed the loss of Kevin Shattenkirk, and adding Brayden Schenn should prove to be a significant roster boost.

Joel Edmundson, Jordan Schmaltz and Jake Walman are all pushing for bigger roles on the back end, and the Blues boast sneaky good depth up front with Magnus Paajarvi, Oskar Sundqvist and Beau Bennett all serviceable bottom-six forwards.

Obviously, the Blues boast significant star power, and remember both Robby Fabbri and Jaden Schwartz missed sizeable chunks during last year's 46-win season.

It's shouldn't be difficult for the Blues to play slight better than .500 hockey again in 2017-18.

 

Calgary Over 42.5 wins

To start, the Pacific Division is beginning to see a changing of the guard with Anaheim and San Jose inching closer and closer to being the doormat the Kings have become. Add an expansion franchise to Vancouver and Arizona, and Calgary is ripe for another solid season and playoff showing. After all, the Flames won 45 games last year.

The defense corps is excellent, and while Mike Smith definitely has some question marks surrounding him, this is easily the best team he's ever played for. Up front, there is an excellent mix of forwards, and Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are just entering their offensive primes.

Additionally, there is a nice group of veterans in Troy Brouwer, Mikael Backlund and Kris Versteeg to compliment the team's youth. Sam Bennett, Curtis Lazar and Micheal Ferland all have some untapped potential left in the tank, too. The Flames aren't the deepest team in the league, but there are enough moveable pieces that they should be able to deal with the handful of the unavoidable injuries that'll occur throughout the season.

 

The fantasy implications aren't significant here, but it's definitely worth keeping tabs on the projected win totals, and then player point totals. It can be help in coin-flip decisions. During the season, turning to the vegas odds of a game isn't the worst idea if trying to decide between goalies. Targeting players from the games with the highest over/under totals is a common strategy in daily contests, albeit more so in the other three majors sports than hockey. All said, consulting Vegas' opinion is a viable avenue for added insight.

 

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A number of restricted free agents that aren't exempt from waivers recently signed contracts, so here's a quick look at the impact of their deals.

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One-Way Deals

Pontus Aberg – The playoff standout also posted an impressive 31 goals and 52 points through 56 games in the AHL last season and projects to slide into a middle-line role with Nashville to start next season. Aberg is capable of playing both wings, so his versatility is a nice bonus, especially in fantasy setups where there are winger distinctions. It's worth noting that he's not a lock to see consistent or big power-play minutes.

Mirco Mueller – With a one-way deal locked up, Mueller is a ripe candidate to crack the New Jersey blue line this fall. He owns everything needed to be a solid real-world defenseman, including the coveted skating ability and puck-moving skills of the modern NHL rearguard. Mueller is probably never going to develop into a reliable offensive contributor, so his fantasy value is likely capped in most settings.

Jordan Martinook – Despite signing a one-way deal, there are too many skilled players ahead of Martinook on the depth chart for him to land a scoring role. His offensive upside — and therefore fantasy potential — is significantly limited, but still offers a modest floor for cavernous settings. Martinook should settle into a third-line role this season, so it's not a dire setup.

 

Two-Way Deals

Brendan Leipsic – The 23-year-old winger is probably ready for the NHL, and landing with Vegas was initially promising. However, his recently signed two-way contract for the 2017-18 campaign is telling. Leipsic does have a one-way deal in place for 2018-19, though. His fantasy value is likely capped for this season, and given his mediocre offensive upside and underwhelming setup with the expansion Golden Knights, it's hard to envision Leipsic making a significant impact in the near future. He's still a player to keep tabs on, though.

Phillip Di Giuseppe – Inking a two-way contract was telling for the former second-round pick. Di Giuseppe has the offensive instincts to succeed at the highest level, but he's failed to meet scoring expectations at both the AHL and NHL to this point in his professional career. While 28 points through 40 games with Charlotte this past year is nothing to complain about, Carolina has more winger depth than ever, so Di Giuseppe is far from a lock to land a roster spot to start next season.

Martin Frk – With consecutive 27-goal campaigns in the AHL and a shot-first mentality, Frk is a prime candidate to take the next step and be a full-time NHLer in 2017-18. Unfortunately, Detroit is flush with wingers, albeit a number probably aren't as good as Frk. His recently signed two-way contract will make it that much harder to carve out a role with the Red Wings next season.

 

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Continuing with the theme of deep diving into a players that will be drafted in the majority of leagues this fall, here is a closer look at Alex Galchenyuk and Patrick Marleau heading into draft season.

 

2016-17 was a disappointing follow up to Galchenyuk's 30-goal showing the year before. However, his 0.72 points per game was a career-high mark, and the 23-year-old forward is just entering his offensive prime. Unfortunately, it's difficult to properly value Galchenyuk because he's never been handed a long-standing opportunity in a top-line role. In fact, his both his overall minutes and power-play time actually dropped last year. Montreal has some intriguing scorers, but if Galchenyuk isn't playing with them consistently, than his fantasy upside is hindered. He did click with Max Pacioretty for 3.52 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season, and both players dropped dramatically when apart. Hopefully, Galchenyuk spends most of the season playing with the Montreal captain or Jonathan Drouin. There is a clear avenue to fantasy success for Galchenyuk, but he needs to be given the No. 1 center gig he deserves.

 

After scoring just 23 even-strength points and posting a discouraging 1.16 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five in 2015-16, Marleau bounced back with a 1.47 mark and 30 even-strength points — including 20 goals — last season. He's projected to play a significant role with the Maple Leafs and has been frequently mentioned as an option to play with Auston Matthews and William Nylander. There is no denying that Marleau is past his prime entering his age-38 campaign. However, the versatile forward is still an excellent skater with high-end hockey IQ. At first glance, it's a ripe setup for Marleau to add another 25-goal, 50-point to his illustrious career, but there's also the potential that he doesn't line up with Matthews and Nylander. Still, while his upside would obviously be higher skating with the two young stars, Marleau's fantasy floor will be high regardless of his linemates. After all, Toronto does have the depth to roll out multiple scoring lines.

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Thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

 

 

 

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