For most of the hockey world – specifically the fantasy hockey community – the expansion draft is of great interest. The draft itself should be fun, but the trades leading up to it are going to be just as important. There is also the protection lists to consider, giving fans some faint insight into the pecking order of specific teams and how they view certain players.

From a fantasy angle, here are some teams and players I’m going to have a keen eye on:

Anaheim

This one is obvious, but there is going to be a lot of focus on the Ducks over the next week or so. Should they decide to go with the four forward/four defencemen protection route, this would likely expose Jakob Silfverberg (along with Josh Manson). If they go seven forwards/three defencemen, they keep Silfverberg, but both Manson and Sami Vatanen are likely exposed. That leaves them in a quandary: lose a player for nothing in the draft, or trade at least one very good roster player. Like Dobber says, it’s probably absurd to think Silfverberg is going anywhere, so it’s like at least one of Manson or Vatanen find new homes here shortly. Vatanen specifically could be a very good power-play quarterback somewhere, and that would help him restore the fantasy value he once had.  

Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson emerging as a legitimate top line winger has changed Nashville’s plans a little bit. A year ago, it seemed a lock that James Neal would be protected; now that is less of a certainty. Given their top-four defencemen are all under 30 years old, all under contract for at least two more years, and all very good, it seems unlikely they don’t protect all four. That leaves them with four forwards to protect: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Arvidsson, and one of Neal or Calle Jarnkrok. They could simply stand to lose one in the expansion draft, or trade one and protect the other. In Neal’s tenure in Music City, it’s worth noting his goals per 60 minutes (1.00) is just slightly below Tyler Seguin (1.03), and slightly above TJ Oshie and Brad Marchand (0.97). If Neal should be traded, a landing spot where he’ll get consistent top power-play minutes could see him return to 30-goal form.

There apparently has already been some discussion:

David Poile has spoken and will speak to George McPhee about if there is a trade to be made to protect assets ahead of the expansion draft.

— Adam Vingan (@AdamVingan) June 14, 2017

Tampa Bay

Who they protect and who they don’t is likely irrelevant; there isn’t a skater on the roster they’ll have to leave unprotected that will leave a gaping hole in the roster like perhaps Nashville or Anaheim. However, like the Rangers, they have a contract I’m sure they’d love to move in Ryan Callahan, who is carrying a $5.8 million AAV for three more years. Complicating the matter is his no-move clause (yes I know of the reports that he hasn’t been asked to waive it yet). The Lightning are in the unique situation of both being primed for a Stanley Cup run, having an extra second-round pick in 2017, and stocked prospect cupboards. We’ve seen Steve Yzerman pull rabbits out of hats in recent years, I’ll be interested to see if he can pull one more and create a roster spot for a young player deserving of it.

There are obviously other teams and players of great interest for the next week. Who are you keeping an eye on as the expansion draft approaches? Let us know in the comments.

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Not having hockey to watch can make for idle hands, but the offseason is a wonderful time of the year to read and research. To that end, Ryan Stimson of Hockey Graphs – I’ve mentioned him here before for his passing project – released a document earlier this week. As the title suggests, it’s an analytical approach to roster and lineup construction, as well as devising a system to contain it all. It is a long read (hours, not minutes), so there is no need to get it all done in one sitting. Of what I have read so far, the concepts are interesting, and at the least, it’s a good way to ingest new information that can change the way you look and think about hockey.

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It was a matter of time before the official status of Erik Karlsson’s injury that he was playing through all playoffs was revealed. We found out on Wednesday night that Karlsson had surgery to repair torn tendons in his left foot. The initial estimate is that he will be out four months.

That four-month timeline would put Karlsson’s return at the middle of October, so if all goes well, maybe he misses just a few games at the beginning of the year. In a vacuum, that’s not too bad for fantasy owners.

The big question will be what kind of shape Karlsson will be in should he be ready to return in the second week of the season. This is a player who averaged nearly 27 minutes a game last year, and had played over 2000 total minutes in four straight seasons. Coming back from foot surgery, will he be able to play 27 minutes a game at the level we expect him to? He came back from his torn Achilles in 2013 and played 26:44 per game in the playoffs. Fantasy owners are hoping he can do that again.

Were he to miss some time at the beginning of the year, Dion Phaneuf would be the obvious beneficiary, as he should run the top power-play unit. There is a long time between now and October, however, so for now let’s just hope Karlsson comes back to be the electric player we all know him to be.

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Tuesday afternoon saw Pete Jensen of NHL.com offer up the following tweet:

After sure-fire top 3 (McDavid, Crosby, Kane), who would you draft next in standard, non-keeper fantasy league: https://t.co/KnMNiJy2EN

— Pete Jensen (@NHLJensen) June 13, 2017

This is a fun exercise to start thinking ahead to next season. I think it’s relatively wide open after that top-3, and here are a few that should warrant consideration, one from each position:

Alex Ovechkin

It’s kind of funny to think of Ovechkin’s shot rate cratering considering he still managed over 3.8 shots on goal per game, and yet it was the first time in his career he finished with fewer than four shots on goal per game. That, combined with his lowest shooting percentage in a season since 2010-11 led us to the 33-goal campaign he had. His ice-time drop also gave us his lowest per-game rate of his career as well.

Turning 32 years old in September, there is no doubt that his prime has gone. However, if we think he can still be reliable for 35 goals, 35 assists, over 300 shots on goal, and over 20 power-play points, how bad can he be? With both Justin Williams and TJ Oshie potentially gone, this team may have to rely on its vets more in 2017-18 than they did in 2016-17. I’m still optimistic that he can be one of the elite fantasy performers.

Brent Burns

Burns is the only defenceman to post at least 25 goals and 45 assists in a season since the 2005 lockout, and he’s done it in back-to-back years. The high shot volume and bevy of power-play points makes him a truly elite fantasy asset. The question is what becomes of that power play should Joe Thornton not re-sign with the team. That is my only real concern here.

Carey Price

The 2016-17 campaign was Price’s poorest effort since the lockout (injuries notwithstanding), and he was still a top-5 goalie in fantasy hockey. He has a .928 overall save percentage over the last four years, leading the NHL. Second in that category in that span is a tie between Cam Talbot and Sergei Bobrovsky at .922, with Braden Holtby, Tuukka Rask, and Corey Crawford coming in at .921. The gap between Price and Bobrovsky/Talbot is the same size as the gap between Holtby/Rask/Crawford and Jonathan Bernier.

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Writing a bit about Ovechkin got me wanting to poke the bear. For years, we were treated to the “Who is better: Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin” trope by the hockey media. While that argument in real hockey is a bit silly (and always was), it does bring an important notion to the forefront for fantasy hockey: the difference between real-world value and fantasy value.

It’s a common-enough notion, but it’s always important to keep in mind: does what this guy do on the ice translate to fantasy hockey value? I would want Anze Kopitar as my top-line centre in the real world, but I’d rather have Tyler Seguin as a player on my fantasy roster, for example. Over the years, Ovechkin has been the better fantasy performer than Crosby, even if the latter has been the better real-world performer.

Back to poking the bear, I wonder if we don’t reach the same kind of conclusions with Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid in the coming years.

This past season, Matthews was fourth in shots on goal per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and did so as a rookie teenager. McDavid posted a solid total, but was outside the top-25.  McDavid also had over two more minutes per game at even strength, over 30 seconds more on the power play, and Matthews still managed to outshoot him.

The intent here isn’t to disparage one or the other; both players look to be every bit the generational player their respective fanbases had hoped for, as Crosby and Ovechkin both were. I do wonder, however, if Matthews doesn’t become the goal scorer/shooter with McDavid being more the distributor. I don’t mean a Joe Thornton-level distributor, either, as McDavid can be a perennial 30-goal guy. But if Matthews can routinely put up 40-goal seasons while posting four shots on goal per game, and McDavid routinely puts up 60-assist seasons with three shots on goal per game, there will be a disparity in fantasy value.

If you’re starting a dynasty fantasy hockey team tomorrow, who are you taking: McDavid or Matthews?