Ramblings: Jimmy Vesey, Sean Monahan, David Pastrnak, Evander Kane, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Aleksander Barkov (Aug. 20)

Neil Parker

2016-08-20

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Jimmy Vesey signs and looks at Sean Monahan, David Pastrnak, Evander Kane, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Aleksander Barkov …

 

The Jimmy Vesey saga ended Friday, and Cliffy filled us in yesterday. It was a touch surprising Vesey ultimately decided to sign with the Rangers given the glaring needs on the blue line within the organization.

The connection between Kevin Hayes and Vesey could have had a huge impact on the deal, but as Mike noted, Hayes stands to lose opportunities with Vesey now on board. The other player negatively impacted was J.T. Miller, as he's also now likely looking at the top-six group from below.

From a team standpoint, it's a nice grab for New York. However, the Rangers now have a solid group of middle line forwards without a go-to scorer. Derek Stepan has flashed that upside, and Rick Nash once was, but currently, it's going to have to continue to be a committee approach.

Additionally, the Rangers used just four lines for more than 200 minutes of five-on-five ice time last year, and three of them featured Mats Zuccarello. Expect there to be plenty of shuffling with this group again.

Tidying up, like Mike, and as I hinted Monday, expect Vesey's fantasy value to fall short of the asking price this season. There has been too much hype and the name recognition alone will drive up his perceived value. In reality, he's a middle-line winger without any professional experience. The reason he was so sought after was because Vesey is NHL ready, cheap and owns some upside. His fantasy upside might only show in flashes this year.

 

***

 

The other big news Friday was Calgary re-signing Sean Monahan to a seven-year, $44.625 million contract with an average annual cap hit of $6.375 million. I looked at Monahan in depth already this summer.

That take is a touch negative and suggests there might not be much room for offensive growth from Monahan. And that concern remains because improving his 200-foot game is likely more important than adding five or six points over the course of the season.

Still, Monahan is one of just 12 players to score at least 60 points in both his age-20 and age-21 seasons. His company is elite, too. And to that end, Monahan can maintain his current production while shoring up some other areas of his game without losing fantasy value.

View him as a high-floor grab with slight upside along with a potential upgrade in all-around production on an improved team. Looking at this from the Calgary perspective, it's a nice cap hit for a core piece who has already shown capable of producing at a high level.

 

***

 

While working on some point projections, I came across a couple tough calls.

 

David Pastrnak

With a solid 53 points through his first 97 career games (82-game pace of 44.8 points), Pastrnak appears poised to take a nice step forward entering his third season. Among skaters with 1000 minutes at five-on-five over the past two seasons, Pastrnak also ranks 13th with 2.24 points per 60 minutes.

However, he also has received just 101:23 of power-play time over his first two seasons and likely won't see top-unit work this year, either. It's a significant blow to his upside, and unless he jumps significantly in even-strength minutes, hitting 50 points will be next to impossible.

Expect to see plenty of positive ink surrounding Pastrnak entering the season, and there is no questioning his talent or upside. It's just a matter of whether he will receive enough PP time to pad his dominant production at five-on-five.

 

Evander Kane

📢 advertisement:

One, he can't stay healthy with the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season as his only full campaign during his career. Two, he's posted an underwhelming 7.9 shooting percentage over the past four years. Three, of the players with at least 100 minutes of power-play time last season, Kane ranked 256th of 278 in points per 60 minutes with the man advantage.

It all adds up to a player who passes the eye test with speed, skill, physicality and a willingness to shoot while also driving possession, but one who has also consistently failed to live up to expectations following his 30-goal showing during the 2011-12 season.

And while Kane is set up for success in a solid top-six group, the three concerns are also accompanied by overhanging legal concerns and an inability to avoid negative attention. In all likelihood, someone else in your draft room will think higher of Kane than you should.

 

***

 

There have only been 12 instances where a defenseman scored 25 points while posting 75 penalty minutes over the past three years, and Dustin Byfuglien and Dion Phaneuf are the only two players to accomplish the feat in all three campaigns. P.K. Subban has done it twice.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson was an interesting name to see fit the requirements last season (55 points and 96 PIM), and with Arizona creeping closer to respectability, his plus/minus rating could also become a nonfactor sooner than later.

All said, he's entering truly elite company, and should be one of the first defensemen off the board in all drafts because of his high floor and improving cross-category coverage. Plus, Alex Goligoski should allow for a few more offensively slanted shifts and opportunities for Ekman-Larsson this season. You're going to turn a profit in most cases with Ekman-Larsson this year.

 

***

 

If Aleksander Barkov plays 80 games this season, what would be the over/under for his point total?

70?

Handing out 70-point seasons should be reserved for the truly elite talents, and over the past three years, there have only been 54 instances from 34 different players. It's an incredibly tough benchmark to hit, yet at times fluky given Nick Foligno and Jiri Hudler have achieved the feat.

Obliviously, the issue with Barkov is his health. He has averaged 63.7 games per season since entering the league. So, it would be foolish to blindly count on 82 games in 2016-17. However, if he produced at 0.89 points per game as he did last year, he'd still post 62 points over 70 games.

With center being the deepest position, you can tack on replacement-level numbers for 10 to 15 games and still receive a 68- to 74-point campaign from that roster spot. Barkov could also take a step closer towards a point-per-game return, which would lessen a short absence even more.

All said, everything is pointing to a huge season for the fourth-year star, so don't let his injury history sway you from the potential of a true breakout campaign in the early middle rounds.

 

***

 

Enjoy the celebration tonight, Hip fans. And thanks for checking in.

 

 

8 Comments

  1. Bruce Allen 2016-08-20 at 12:48

    I have not been able to access your site using Google Chrome ,I have to switch over to Firefox which works fine .This has been like this for about a week.

    • Gavin Coulson 2016-08-20 at 13:11

      Same, Chrome user here, thought the website was down all week, until last night when I checked on my phone. Safari and Firefox both work just fine.

      • TheOev 2016-08-20 at 16:01

        All good using chrome over here gents

      • Mark McAuley 2016-08-20 at 16:03

        I’m using Chrome and haven’t had any problems. Do you need to update?

      • xtrain 2016-08-20 at 16:12

        Chrome has been fine for me–PC user.

      • Gavin Coulson 2016-08-20 at 16:50

        I’m on the latest version, OSX. Interestingly navigating to direct links works just fine, it’s just the homepage.

  2. Mark McAuley 2016-08-20 at 16:09

    “Handing out 70-point seasons should be reserved for the truly elite talents” – Need any more proof that scoring is down? 100 points used to be the level for truly elite talents. Expansion is going to dilute the talent pool even more! Low scoring games definitely can be exciting, especially in the playoffs, but for fantasy owners this can be frustrating.

  3. Mark McAuley 2016-08-20 at 16:27

    I always though that Chicago would be the team that would lure Vesey to sign there because he’d be a lock for the top-6. The Hawks have some big names up front, but their forward depth is really bad.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
LINUS ULLMARK OTT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
22.7 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK MORGAN GEEKIE
18.8 BRAD MARCHAND ELIAS LINDHOLM CHARLIE COYLE
17.5 COLE KOEPKE MARK KASTELIC JOHN BEECHER

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: Short Shifts – EBUP (Emergency Backup Podcaster)

Elan comes in to save the day and records with Shams to bring you all the fantasy news you need to know as we near the Christmas break. They cover the fantasy impact of the Kaapo Kakko trade and the nearing return of Alex Ovechkin and Rasmus Dahlin from injury. After that, they cover many […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: