Looking at Potential Draft Targets, Tyson Barrie, Faceoffs, Casey Cizikas

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Given how the overtime winner was scored in Game 2 of this Stanley Cup Final, there has been a lot of talk around faceoffs. This is perhaps one of the more contentious issues in hockey.

Let’s look at this year alone: The top two teams in faceoff percentage this past year both missed the playoffs (Arizona, Carolina); four of the top ten missed the playoffs (the previous two plus Ottawa and Toronto); two more in the top 10 were probably the worst teams to make the playoffs this year in Detroit and Minnesota.

There is a ton of literature out there on this subject, but this is a quick and easy read from Hockey’s Wilderness, the SBNation Minnesota Wild blog. There’s no significant correlation between faceoffs and a high possession rate. I repeat: there is no significant correlation between faceoffs and high possession rate. If anyone still wants to dispute the importance of puck possession to team success (and sustained franchise success), please do so elsewhere.

As the blog points out, it’s not to say that faceoffs are completely unimportant, and that’s what Sidney Crosby’s goal showed last night. There are the types of one-off situations where they are very important. Also, winning the draw in the offensive zone on the power play has its obvious benefits. It’s just that the extent to which faceoffs are lionized is kind of misguided. They are basically like hits; doing it a lot doesn’t mean a team will succeed, or that they’re very important. But there are situations where they do come to the forefront, and Game 2 was one of those situations.

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There was an interesting article yesterday over at TSN, looking at some names that may be on the move this summer. This was the entire list, taken from their website:

So, uh, let’s look at a few of the more intriguing ones, and think about them in fantasy terms.

One that jumped out right away was Tyson Barrie, and I’ll get to him later. But three other young d-men that are on this list are Jacob Trouba, Sami Vatanen, and Hampus Lindholm.

I don’t doubt that the Ducks will probably have to trade one of Vatanen or Lindholm. I think this is a situation where Lindholm is unquestionably the better of the two young d-men in real hockey, but Vatanen is the better fantasy hockey option. For that reason, as a selfish fantasy owner, Vatanen is the one I would like to see moved.

Vatanen has a higher points/60 minutes on the power play than Lindholm over the last two years (5.33 over 4.23) and higher points/60 minutes at five-on-five as well (0.91 to 0.76). He shoots a shade more per minute as well, but if he stays in Anaheim, he will fight for power play time with Cam Fowler and Shea Theodore.

Seeing Vatanen move to a team like Boston or Edmonton where they need a true puck mover, I think, would be beneficial for fantasy owners. Were that to be Lindholm on the move, I’m not so certain.

Trouba being on the move is odd. Having him and Byfuglien for the next five years would be a good duo to build around, though I get the cap constraints. Like in Anaheim, Trouba is behind a couple players at least (Byfuglien and Myers) when it comes to power play, and that’s no good for fantasy. Were Trouba, like Vatanen, moved to a team that needs a clear top puck mover, or a number-2, fantasy owners would probably reap the rewards. If he’s not traded, it’s probably another season of less-than-stellar raw production totals, and that’s awful news for dynasty fantasy owners waiting for him to bust out.

Ben Bishop was another name that caught my eye. It would be tough for him to get traded to a better situation than he has been in Tampa Bay. He’s proven himself as one of maybe the top half-dozen goalies in the league – he’s tied for third in adjusted five-on-five save percentage over the last three seasons – while Tampa is one of the top teams in the East, and looks to be for the near-future.

That’s why I worry about a potential landing spot for him. Who desperately needs goaltending? Calgary? Arizona? That wouldn’t be very good for fantasy. He could land in Dallas, but that would take some wizardry from GM Jim Nill to pull that off. Carolina might not be too bad a spot to land.

I understand why the Lightning would want to trade Bishop – recoup a good amount of assets for an expiring contract with Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting in the wings – but keeper/dynasty owners should not be salivating at the idea. He’s in a good spot now, and it’s far from certain he’d land in an equally advantageous situation.

Of course, at the bottom of the list, there’s P.K. Subban. Aside from being a Habs fan and nearly vomiting all over my keyboard just thinking about him being traded at this point of his career, I’m not sure how he improves his situation from a fantasy situation.

I mean, theoretically, Subban could land somewhere like Dallas or Pittsburgh, and maybe he’s a 70-point guy. All of that seems extremely unlikely, I would have to think, so does it really get better for him? He’s roughly a 60-point defenceman now – in an 82-game season – and going somewhere else doesn’t improve that. I suppose Dallas and Pittsburgh have pulled off miracle trades before, so never say never, but I can’t imagine things getting better for Subban from a fantasy perspective were he dealt somewhere else.

What do you guys think? Of the 20 – I guess 19 – names on that list, who would you like to see in a new locale for fantasy reasons? Let us know down in the comments.

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I find it weird that the Avalanche apparently are trying to move Tyson Barrie, given that he’s probably their best defenceman: he leads Avalanche d-men by a wide margin in points/60 over the last three years (0.3 more per 60 minutes than the next-nearest blue liner), and he has been their best defenceman at driving high-danger scoring chances. He’s also still 24 years old (until July). Bizarre, indeed, until you see what team he plays for.

Regardless, I am excited at the prospect of Barrie moving on. He has over 100 points over the last two seasons, but on aggregate, is a minus-11. For roto leagues, that’s not very solid. Not sure if Colorado would trade in their own division, but Barrie would look some good in Dallas green beside (or behind on the depth chart) John Klingberg.

I truly think Barrie is one of the top young offensive defencemen in the game, and his ability to drive the play to the offensive zone helps negate any apparent liabilities (though I think he’s better than some may think in that regard). If he can go somewhere that would help him get closer to being a plus-10 rather than a minus-10, he’s probably a top-15 or top-20 defenceman next year. 

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The Islanders re-signed Casey Cizikas yesterday to a five-year, $16.75-million contract, giving him an average annual value of $3.35-million. That probably means Matt Martin will not be in an Islanders uniform next year.

For those that use real-time stats in their fantasy league, Cizikas is a known quantity in fantasy. He is a guy that can give two hits a game, throw in some blocked shots, and is coming off a career-high 30 points.

In the fantasy world, this could be a really good thing for owners in real-time leagues. I would have to think that with the Islanders giving him over $3-million a season, he won’t be relegated to strictly fourth line and penalty kill duties. Maybe he gets some sparse second unit power play minutes, and he should get some more five-on-five time. Added minutes means more hits, and that is beneficial for his fantasy value.

The worry here, also, is that after combining for 19 assists the previous two years combined, he had 22 last season. Without additional minutes, be it at five-on-five or on the power play, it seems hard to believe that he’ll repeat that performance. If he is back to the 18-20 point range as opposed to his 30-point season from 2015-2016, it’s a pretty big hit to his value in real-time leagues.

All this is conjecture for now. There is no real telling how the Islanders will plan to use him until training camp and exhibition games start. I just can’t imagine a team giving over $3-million a season to a player that they will only give 12 minutes a game to. We shall see.

*Some stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Cap information from Cap Friendly