Ramblings: The Case for Tarasenko and Guentzel, Quack Talk and more (July 28)
Neil Parker
2017-07-28
The largest NHL news from Thursday was that Andrei Markov will be playing in the KHL in 2017-18. It's worth noting that the veteran defenseman hasn't ruled out a return to the NHL in the future, but that after failing to ink a deal with Montreal this year, he's bolting for Russia.
There were some interesting and family-related details found within this TSN article, which highlights the real-world nature of his decision. Holding Markov in cavernous keeper/dynasty settings isn't out of the question, but there definitely appears to be a slim chance he returns.
At this stage, there isn't a significant fantasy impact for Montreal because Markov not returning was essentially a foregone conclusion after Mark Streit was signed by the Habs on Tuesday. Streit's addition definitely softens the blow of Markov's absence, though.
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Here's a closer look at a handful of Ducks heading into next season.
Corey Perry is an easy target of criticism because he was also an easy candidate for a down year entering 2016-17. It turned out to be an extremely poor season, as the veteran posted his worst offensive showing since establishing himself as a regular during the '06-07 campaign. However, there is definitely bounce-back potential. Perry posted a career-low 8.8 shooting percentage last year after recording a 16.0 mark over the previous three season. Modest statistical correction alone will provide an uptick in production, so even with the 32-year-old winger past his offensive prime, a respectable — to sizeable — rebound is within reach. Plus, Perry still moves the needle across all categories and is locked into a role with the No. 1 power-play unit.
Ryan Getzlaf put the Ducks on his shoulders to finish the regular season with 35 points through 25 games, and then he recorded 19 points — eight goals — over 17 playoff contests. The veteran pivot has averaged 73 points per year over the past four seasons and remains a go-to fantasy asset in all settings. There are still a few concerns looming, though. First, Getzlaf has scored just 23 goals over the past two seasons and averaged only 1.86 shots per game in 2016-17. He also started more five-on-five shifts in his own zone this year and posted his worst Corsi For percentage in five seasons. Getzlaf offers an extremely high floor in points-only setups, and his penalty minutes help in rotisserie settings, but his value is definitely trending in the wrong direction.
Rickard Rakell broke out in 2016-17 with 33 goals and 51 points, and his 1.54 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five were a league-high mark among all skaters with at least 1,000 minutes. That's an impressive showing, and the 24-year-old Swede fulfilled his fantasy upside while proving to be a valuable and coveted asset for years to come. However, it will tough for him to be as efficient a goal scorer after posting an 18.6 shooting percentage and 19.3 mark at five-on-five. It will likely take an uptick in ice time and shot volume to top last season's goal total because repeating his shooting percentage will be next to impossible.
Jakob Silfverberg is coming off a career-best 23 goals and 49 points and followed it up with nine goals and 14 points through 17 postseason games. In particular, the playoff numbers are impressive because he's now posted 27 points — 13 goals — over 40 games the past three postseasons. Unfortunately, Silfverberg's offensive upside is slightly capped because of his excellent defensive play and utilization in a shut-down role. However, that also ensures he's logging plenty of minutes, and he averaged a career-high 18:29 of ice time last year. Still in his prime, another small step forward offensively could be ahead for Silfverberg.
With 89 points — 25 goals — through 104 AHL games over the past two seasons, the arrow is pointing straight up for Brandon Montour. He was often deployed as a depth defenseman and even watched from the press box a number of nights last year, but his numbers when in the lineup are solid: 13 points through 44 games (including the playoffs). Additionally, his seven assists and excellent play through 17 postseason games was especially encouraging. While Montour is likely still a year or two away from being a go-to fantasy asset, don't be shocked when he immediately shines in a larger role. His skating ability is a real difference maker.
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Two players I'm eyeing heavily entering next season are Vladimir Tarasenko and Jake Guentzel. Obviously, there are no surprises, and they're on the universal radar. However, as of right now, they're guys I'm willing to build my team around with a first- and fourth-round selection. Hopefully, Guentzel can drop to the fifth run through, though.
Depending on how you want to approach your first-round pick, it's worth noting that Tarasenko is the only player in the NHL with at least 35 goals, 70 points and 260 shots in each of the past three seasons. That alone is an intriguing starting point, but it's also worth noting that the sniper is also just entering his age-26 season and still in the heart of his offensive prime. Additionally, the Blues have undergone a number of changes the past few years, and Tarasenko is now the go-to scorer for St. Louis. After Mike Yeo took over as head coach, he utilized his star as such, and Tarasenko averaged 19:05 of ice per game. He logged a full minute less with Ken Hitchcock calling the shots. Tarasenko is a high-floor, high-upside option that warrants fantasy attention immediately and has a case for being the No. 1 pick.
Don't be hesitant to call out Guentzel's name early in drafts. Many will cling to the idea that he hasn't proven himself over a full season, and potentially even worry that his production is tied to flanking Sidney Crosby. Those fantasy players don't deserve shares. Another sub section of gamers will focus on the unavoidable negative regression ahead of his shooting percentage and worry about a sophomore slump. That crowd shouldn't have a chance to pluck Guentzel in the middle rounds, either. There is likely to be some peaks and valleys during his sophomore campaign, and it is absolutely going to be difficult to duplicate his shooting percentage, but there is plenty room for statistical decline. Guentzel can afford to take a hit and still post high-end numbers. However, he's a rare case where there is also a legitimate chance that he just continues to roll. A top-six gig is locked up, and that means playing with Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. If you lose your fantasy league because you took Guentzel too early it will be the shocker of 2017-18.
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A there any players you're already bullish on and will reach for?
Thanks, Dobberheads.
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Points only, do you keep Guentzel over Ehlers?
Tough call. I think their upside is very similar, and in the short term, Guentzel is better. Ehlers likely has more long-term upside and is also younger.
Seems to me that everyone is always talking about Guentzel but not Sheary – what’s up with this? Sheary is in basically the same situation as Guentzel, had a similar points/game and high sh% this year.
Sheary is solid, but Guentzel has more upside and is valued higher within the organization (I believe).
Per position, I’m ”all-in” on Scott Darling… thinking Ekblad will overcome whatever was slowing him down… and crossing my fingers Wennberg will break out in a big way.
Nice. Those are interesting names. I like Darling, too.
Wennberg’s lack of shot volume holds him back to a degree, but that can be improved.
Well it’s a celebration then because i just drafted Taresenko in a new Dynasty in the 3rd rnd
That’s a foolish value.
2 team league?