Ramblings – World Cup rosters announced and a quick-hit tour through the news (May 28)

Neil Parker

2016-05-27

Jake Muzzin - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

World Cup rosters announced and a quick-hit tour through all the latest news …

 

***

 

Maybe, this all plays out, and I'm the one looking foolish.

But how does it make sense for Toronto to deal Tyler Bozak to Edmonton for Mark Fayne?

And worse, how does this hypothetical vision end up being cited as a trade rumor?

Bozak is a veteran presence to insolate some of the Toronto young forwards as they work into the lineup.

Fayne might be a solid analytics type, but trading for a 29-year-old defenseman doesn't seem to be in line with the Toronto plan, whatsoever.

Additionally, if Lou Lamoriello was so enamoured by Fayne, why didn't the Devils re-sign Fayne when he was an unrestricted free agent.

Anyway, it's slow all over the hockey world, but this is a perfect example of why you should dig into these fishy takes a little closer.  

Over the next few months, the sketchy news and fluff pieces are coming, so due your due diligence.

One of the easiest paths to being a successful fantasy player is being a step ahead of your competitive. Being informed helps, but remember, everyone is in the best shape of their lives and entering 2016-17 motivated. 

 

A specific example from last season stands out for me. David Perron worked on his foot speed extensively last summer, and while it never worked out with Pittsburgh this year, he did tip the fantasy scales with the Ducks.

 

Be critical, dig deeper and don't settle for lazy news over the summer months.

 

***

 

In case you missed it, the Oilers are considering all options with their fourth pick in the draft.

Trading down for a pick and young defenseman would be a savvy move, if the right player was acquired.

 

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Following the Florida-Vancouver trade, there has been some mud thrown on the #fancystats community again.

I can appreciate the real-world angle and unquantifiable aspects of the game Erik Gudbranson can bring nightly. There are intangibles that statistics cannot account for, and he has room to develop into a solid stay-at-home defenseman.

Yet, as Dobber and Cliffy pointed out, this wasn't a great trade for a declining organization because of the pieces given up, and it is exacerbated by Gudbranson's inability to be an offensive catalyst in kick-starting the play out of his own zone, especially on top of his poor possession numbers.

And while I'm cool with giving some leeway, it also has become incredibly clear that effective shut-down defensemen drive possession.

If Drew Doughty is playing against the opponent's top players, and Los Angeles is registering more shot attempts than the opposition, that means the Kings are likely spending more time closer to the opponent's net than their own.

It isn't foolproof, admittedly, but at the bare bones, possession statistics are extremely telling. And if your justification for why this was a good trade is Gudbranson is tough to play against, you're missing the point.

You want to play in the opponent's end and neutralize the majority of their offensive chances before having to retreat into your own zone.

 

***

 

Here is an interesting quote from Panthers general manager Tom Rowe:

“We wanted to get more depth on the forward lines. The fact we added two draft picks, we got two back that we lost at the trade deadline.”

Pretty sound asset management right there.

 

***

 

Pretty poor asset management right here.

 

***

 

Vancouver did sign a one-year, two way contract with 22-year-old Tom Nilsson Thursday, though.

It is unlikely he sees enough time to earn fantasy value next season, as Nilsson projects as a depth piece for Utica.

 

***

 

This is a fitting article about the Bruins blue line, and it is topical following Cliffy's recent look at Torrey Krug, and the comments that followed.

CSNNE's Joe Haggerty's parting shot seems fitting:

"So that’s the plan, folks. The big move of the summer is getting a defenseman they badly need, filling in a few roster spots, signing a good deal of their own players and then hoping for a better result next time around.

Isn’t there some kind of line about insanity and expecting different results with the same cast of characters year in and year out?"

Haggerty isn't optimistic, and after reading Daoust's take in this week's edition of the Eastern Edge, the huge fall off I envisioned happening this past season is likely ahead for Boston next year.

The real issue of acquiring this prized defensemen is who and how?

If it is through free agency, they likely don't have the cap space to sign a needle mover, and if it is through a trade, who are they dealing? Who does Boston have that could bring in a strong puck-moving defenseman?

Any deal would have to resemble selling their car for gas money, wouldn't it?

In the second half, Boston allowed 2.97 goals and 31.4 shots per game which ranked eighth and seventh worst in the league, respectively. This isn't a playoff roster, especially with the likely negative regression ahead from Brad Marchand.

In fantasy terms, this is a team to avoid unless particular players fall to a point where they present screaming profits. In most casual circles, that isn't going to happen.

 

***

 

The Arizona Coyotes have until Wednesday, June 1, to sign an entry-level deal with Conner Bleackley, and if they don't agree to terms, Arizona will receive a compensatory second-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche.

Here is Bleackley's DobberProspects profile.

At this stage, it is likely the Coyotes opt for the second-round pick, and Bleackley is unlikely to have a significant impact at the highest level. Expect him to top out in a third-line role with limited offensive upside.

There are some character issues, too.

This is also a great spot to plug the upcoming Prospect Guide, which also is available June 1.

Get at it folks.

 

***

 

The Red Wings made some moves.

First, they acquired Dylan Sadowy from San Jose for a third-round pick in the 2017 draft, and then Detroit signed Sadowy to a three-year, entry-level contract.

Here is what last season's Prospect Guide said about Sadowy:

"He can certainly score goals and has a decent ceiling, but his floor is higher than most prospects. He should contribute in multiple categories as soon as he gets consistent ice time."

It was more of the same for Sadowy in the OHL this season, as he scored 45 goals and added 25 helpers through 64 games.

He'll be brought along slowly by Detroit, but certainly appears to have some upside down the line.

Detroit also re-upped Tomas Nosek to a two-year contract with the second year appearing to be a one-way deal.

After scoring just 30 points — 15 goals — through 70 games with Grand Rapids this season, there is limited upside, and Nosek projects for a bottom-six role in the future. With that said, he is clearly in the plans. He had a six game cup of coffee with Detroit this season.

 

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Buffalo inked Vaclav Karabacek to a three-year, entry-level deal, but there is extremely limited fantasy value here.

 

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While Lukas Sedlak is likely a long shot to earn fantasy value any time soon, he is on an impressive run with 18 goals through his past 23 games dating back to the American Hockey League regular season.

He was recently re-signed to a one-year, two-way deal, too.

The Blue Jackets aren't exactly the bees knees up the middle, so who knows, especially with head coach John Tortorella being prone to against-the-grain thinking.

 

***

 

I had the pleasure of working with and talking to Pete Jensen twice a week for about six months this year when we teamed up for the Daily Fantasy Hockey Edge podcast, and as a Islanders and Sharks fan, I'm happy he'll be rooting on one of his teams.

Here is his in-depth look at the trip San Jose took to the Stanley Cup Finals.

I don't know Dave Satriano, but here is his same look at the Penguins' season.

 

***

 

It was reported that plenty of teams were interested in Yohann Auvitu, and he signed a one-year, two-way, entry-level deal with the Devils Thursday.

He has a legitimate shot at playing third-pairing minutes with New Jersey, but that doesn't warrant fantasy attention in most leagues.

 

***

 

The Kings are apparently looking at going a different direction with their captaincy.

I'm just going to leave these here.

 

 

 

Fantasy take: Brown isn't worth a roster spot.

 

***

 

Yesterday, Steven Stamkos said he wants to go back to Tampa Bay, and Steve Yzerman said he wants Stamkos back.

But how is the money going to work?

Maybe this works out, but I'm sceptical.

 

Before the 2017-18 season, here are the notable players who will need new contracts from the current roster:

Steven Stamkos

Jonathan Drouin

Tyler Johnson

Nikita Kucherov

Vladislav Namestnikov

Alex Killorn

J.T. Brown

Ondrej Palat

Cedric Paquette

Brian Boyle

Victor Hedman

Nikita Nesterov

Slater Koekkoek

Ben Bishop

Andrei Vasilevskiy

 

Good luck.

 

***

 

NHL.com has a quick-hit list of all the rosters for the World Cup of Hockey, and then the surprises, additions and omissions were highlighted here.

If you came for seething takes on why so-and-so was left off and so-and-so was included, this isn't the spot.

This is a fleeting tournament where you're patching together a group of guys to come together and take a run at winning. Taking one particular player over another player likely will have a limited impact when it's all said and done. 

 

Jake Muzzin was surprising, but he has consecutive 40-point seasons, chemistry with Drew Doughty, and Muzzin is a solid possession hound. He might even be the seventh defenseman, which means, you guessed it, his impact is likely going to be limited.

 

Snubbing Phil Kessel and Tyler Johnson for Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky is absurd, and the USA team is likely worse than the North American team.

Some of the selections on defense were questionable, too.

Good luck with that hard-nosed, heavy-hitting, slow-footed group, but again, what else do you expect when John Tortorella has input?

 

Many threw tomatoes because John Klingberg did not crack team Sweden, and while I'm a big fan of Klingberg for fantasy purposes, he is a riverboat gambler at times. 

Also, when you think about it, Klingberg is firmly behind Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Victor Hedman as an offensively capable two-way defensemen, so …

Sure, while Niklas Kronwall looks out of place, few know the presence and leadership he brings and what it means to the Swedes. From the 2006 Gold Medal roster only Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin and Henrik Lundqvist remain.   

 

Ilya Kovalchuk and Alexander Radulov not making Russia is a non-factor because that defense corps is worse than half the teams in the National Hockey League.

 

Anyway, I'm hoping for the North American team, personally, what about you?

*

We're discussing the Team Canada roster "snubs" here in the forum. Jump in!

And the Team USA snubs are being discussed here!

 

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This article is a good outline of how horrible a coach John Tortorella is. 

And, as long as he is behind an NHL bench, you have to downgrade his players to a degree.

 

***

 

Thanks all, enjoy the weekend.

 

 

21 Comments

  1. larrylintz 2016-05-27 at 23:09

    as opposed to “positive regression?”

    • Dobber 2016-05-27 at 23:14

      regression goes either way, it’s just more common as a negative

      • Patrick Lauzon 2016-05-28 at 10:32

        It’s only common as a negative. You could just as easily say that progression goes either way, but it’s more common as a positive. Sure, I suppose you’re right in limited context, but it’s a ridiculous justification for continuously using a word incorrectly and/or confusing the point for your readers by redundantly stating “negative regression”.

        • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 11:35

          It was in the entire ramblings once, how is that continuously used?

          • xtrain 2016-05-28 at 12:02

            Assume the reference is to past ramblings, as opposed to the current article:

            May 21–5 times
            May 13–2 times

          • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 12:07

            That’s awesome. In all seriousness, I’m just happy people are reading.

          • xtrain 2016-05-28 at 12:12

            Personally, no horse in this race–just answering the question.

            Appreciate the articles/insight.

    • rob2kx 2016-05-27 at 23:14

      You must be new. This isn’t a can of worms you want to open.

    • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 06:59

      I’m still glad you called me out here. Simply saying Marchand is going to negatively regress is lazy analysis, and it doesn’t help anyone. Where Marchand regresses to is what’s important. The power-play production has never been there, and he had just six PP goals and two PP helpers last year. Without a boost there, which at this stage seems highly unlikely, Marchand will have to post another beastly season at even strength to repeat his career year. His added minutes help, but you should still be happy with a 25-25 return, and he is still plenty valuable in rotisserie leagues because of the cross-category returns.

  2. GB 2016-05-28 at 07:13

    Proof read these articles before posting

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-28 at 08:27

      What was it, grammar, spelling or facts? Sometimes things are missed even after being read twice. Although not by me, because I’m perfect ;)

    • Ben Burns 2016-05-28 at 10:09

      Who cares if a spelling mistake is there or not. Not a big deal. The content is free and you get the gist of it.

    • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 11:54

      Want me to clear these 1500-2200 word pieces with you ahead of time? I’d gladly pass along the editing commitment. All the same, thanks for reading, but you didn’t share this typo/mistake?

      • Gary Barnes 2016-05-29 at 12:37

        I’m trying to give constructive criticism and appreciate what it takes to be a writer, but there are 3 errors within the first section of ramblings – insulate is misspelled, “due your due diligence” and “being a step ahead of your competitive” were mangled. It makes it hard to read.

  3. Striker 2016-05-28 at 08:29

    1st let me state that I am a Bruins fan. I’m glad we were able to get that out of the way. 2nd, I have no serious expectations that the Bruins are a playoff team nor did I think they were last year. They will battle for a playoff spot but Boston is in a rebuild & icing a ton of youth. 11 players played regulars roles for the Bruins last year with little to no NHL experience & no where was this more prevalent than on defense. Trotman, Morrow & C. Miller had virtually no NHL experience to start the season, Krug was entering year 3 & K. Miller was entering his 2nd full season. mCquad has limited NHL experience as well. Seidenberg was injured to start the season missing all of training camp & the 1st 18 games of the season & never really got back up to full speed.

    At Forward Hayes, Connolly, Vatrano, Ferraro, Pastrnak, Spooner, Acciari & Kemppainen were all just kids with limited to no NHL experience that were asked to play significant roles.

    Boston under went significant change last season. This seasons will see slightly less. Yandle will be signed at or near 6.5 for 5 possibly 6 years, Vesey will be signed, Eriksson will be allowed to walk. The long term savings will be used to extend Marchand & Vatrano will be promoted to a full time NHL player possibly even taking Erikssons position. Boston may look to the UFA market for a RW but frankly I would prefer we save the money & dress Vatrano in a scoring role.

    • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 11:53

      Any source for the Yandle rumors? It makes sense.

      Good call on Vesey, too. I forgot about him.

      Thanks.

      • Striker 2016-05-28 at 12:04

        Neil.
        Nothing concrete or reliable from any reputable sources on Yandle. A bunch of scuttlebutt from people like me. Just makes a ton of sense. There is a fit in that he meets exactly what Sweeney says their looking for. It would mean Chara having to play his offside both being lefties but in the right salary range in or around 6.5 for 5 possibly 6 years & there’s to local boy dynamic might want to come home to wrap up his career, even taking a nominal discount to do so. For me he fits perfectly with Boston’s need.
        Yandle, Chara.
        Krug, Miller.
        Seidenberg, McQuad.
        Morrow & C. Miller.
        Would love to see Seidenberg traded just don’t know if that’s in the cards. What you see may be well what you get.
        If Yandle chooses a different team it’s possible Boston reups Trotman, C. Miller moves into a full time role & that’s that. With expansion looming Boston really needs to have a full read on C. Miller to determine if he has to be protected.
        If Vesey chooses someone other than Boston, Vatrano is promoted to LW full time.

        • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 12:07

          I could see it working, though. Enjoy the rest of your weekend, man. Thanks again.

          • Striker 2016-05-28 at 12:19

            All good Neil. Nice to have you back. Love your insight & writing style.

  4. NHLGodfather 2016-05-28 at 10:03

    Question Neil. Regarding the World Cup rosters, could it be that some of the “questionable omissions” are decisions that the players, themselves, made? Injuries, fatigue, family matters, and so on? Although invited, they declined for said reasons? Us armchair coaches may be scratching our heads, but I wonder if other variables may be in play here. As always, great article.

    • Neil Parker 2016-05-28 at 11:51

      Thanks for the kind words. There absolutely could be more at play, and there could be a gentleman’s agreement to stay quiet about it. Imagine the uproar if a player just simply said, “I’m in a contract year, and I don’t want to risk injury.” Significant others could be pregnant, friends may be getting married and the list goes on. It is an honor to play for you country, but for some, maybe being away at a fishing camp or on golf trip might be preferred leading into the season. Maybe being out of the spotlight is a welcomed break.

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