I can't believe it's been a full year since my 15 Fearless Forecasts for 2021-22 went live. For those of you who followed along, let's just say those results were……pretty bad, as you can see if you read this.

After a few months of licking my wounds and – hopefully – learning from my mistakes, I'm now ready to present a fresh list for 2022-23. Although it may sound like I'm making excuses in advance, I do want to point out that, as always, these are called Fearless Forecasts for a reason, since although all have logic behind them they're meant to be stretches and not softball predictions like you may find elsewhere. Still, even with that disclaimer, and the goal of having these be fun, I do hope a good number of them will come true; and even if they don't, the rationales behind me making them should be of use in helping you shape your fantasy teams for this season.

Before I go further, I also want to make note that October 2022 represents the ten-year anniversary of the date of the first column I wrote for Dobberhockey (sorry – the link seems to be gone) (Editor’s Note: The earliest article from Roos that we could dig up is this one from February of 2012, about four months after his debut). I believe that makes me not only the most senior member of the current writing staff, but perhaps the site's longest continuously tenured writer of all time. Either way, I'm grateful for this opportunity and all the positive feedback I receive from the readers of my columns. Although I recently landed a new "real life" job that will leave me busier, I still hope to continue writing here for many more years to come. With all that out of the way, here's what you came here for: my 15 (actually 17 – explained below) Fearless Forecasts!

1) Every current Panther who played 40+ games in 2021-22 while scoring at a 60+ point pace will produce at a lower scoring rate for 2022-23

Sound like too safe a prediction? Keep in mind for this to come true each of Alexander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad, and Anthony Duclair would each need to see their scoring rates drop. What do all five have in common? Beyond Duclair, who set a career best in scoring rate for the fifth straight season, the other four likewise established career highs in scoring rate in 2021-22. Florida also became the first team since the 1995-96 Penguins to average more than four goals per game over the course of a full regular season. What happened to the Pens in 1996-97? They led the league in goals yet again; but their per game scoring pace dropped from 4.41 to 3.47. This despite all four of their point-per-game or better scorers from 1995-96 returning and playing 63+ games, mainly due to each of the four scoring at a lower rate than in 1995-96. The 1995-96 Penguins didn't win a Cup either; so, just like Florida will have in 2022-23, there was motivation for the Pens to play just as well the following season. Although the 115 points that Jonathan Huberdeau had in 2021-22 will now be up for grabs, gone will be the offense that he created at even strength and, in particular, on the PP.

I also feel like Florida will stress a lower octane approach during the 2022-23 regular season, for fear their superstars will be out of gas when it counts most during the playoffs. After all, they need look no further than the Lightning squad that swept them in the second round in 2022 to see it's about having a complete team from top to bottom to be able to make the most noise in the playoffs; and Florida likely will try to incorporate that ideal, at the expense of higher regular season scoring.

Remember also that the Lightning had a powerhouse offense in 2018-19 and, just like the Panthers in 2021-22, both led the league in goals scored and won the President's Trophy. In their case though, they were swept in the first round, rather than the second as occurred with the 2021-22 Panthers. What happened to the Lightning the following season? Lo and behold their goals per game dropped from 3.96 to 3.50, plus each of their top three scoring forwards had a lower point per game scoring rate versus 2018-19. Oh, and they went on to win the Stanley Cup.

As I noted though, the 1996-97 Pens still led the league in goals, and I can't see how Florida falls out of the top five, perhaps even leading the league again. I still think we will witness a new philosophy implemented by Florida under first year coach Paul Maurice to prevent the team from peaking in the regular season, and it will come at the expense of scoring from their top players.

2) At least five Ottawa forwards will have 10+ power play goals

Does this not seem like a stretch? It's only happened eight times……..ever, and not since 2005-06. Why do I think it could occur, when last season Ottawa's PP failed to score on even 20% of its chances, placing it in the bottom third of all NHL teams in that area and not even having 50 PPGs in total?

First and foremost, they added Alex DeBrincat, who had 14 PPGs for a Blackhawks squad that had a grand total of 47 as a team. Although Claude Giroux has only once hit double digits on the PP, he had two PP markers in his last ten games on Florida. As for the returning Sens, Josh Norris missed a chunk of time yet still finished with 16 PPGs, Tim Stutzle had three PPGs in his last 12 contests, and just under 40% of Drake Batherson's career points have come on the man advantage. Although Brady Tkachuk has been a disappointment on the PP, last season taking the ice for the 24th most PP minutes among all forwards, yet only finishing tied for tied for 70th in PPPts, just a season after finishing 32nd and tied for 76th, ten of his 18 PPPts in 2021-22 were PPGs and in 2021-22 Tkachuk was tied for 5th in PPSOG among all NHLers, with the average PPGs for the four ahead of him being 18.

Another key is Ottawa's PP QB Thomas Chabot, despite missing 23 games, logged the 21st most PP minutes among d-men; but his 13 PPPts put him tied for 29th, and in 2020-21 the spread was even wider at 11th and 39th. Of his 47 PPPts over the past four seasons, a mere two were PPGs. So all the PPGs should be there for the forwards to get. Also, because of the newfound forward depth of the Sens, they likely will opt to run two top units, giving all its top six forwards a chance to pot PP markers. With each of them having talent, I predict at least five of them will hit double digits in PPGs, making many a poolie who invested in them very happy in the process.

3) Rasmus Dahlin will finish in the top five in defenseman scoring

The former first overall pick will be entering his fifth full season despite not even turning 23 until April. Although his 53 points were good for 13th overall in rearguard scoring last season, he would've needed more than 71 to crack the top five. Sounds like too tall an order, right? Maybe not…….

For one, Dahlin had 16 points in his last 20 games of 2021-22; so if all he did was stay at that pace he'd tally 65 points in a full season. Also, Dahlin showed explosive talent, with 31 of his 53 points coming in just 15 games. He actually had one game with 3 points, 14 with 2 points, 22 with one point, and 43 with zero. He didn't record a point in more than half his games. Of defensemen who had more points last season than his 53, just one other (Charlie McAvoy) failed to log a point in at least 53.8% of his games. Further, the average point total of the eight defensemen who had more multipoint games than Dahlin's 15 was 74, which would have put Dahlin among the top five d-man scorers for 2021-22.

Let's also not forget Dahlin did all this while on a Buffalo team that finished 22nd in 2021-22 in goals scored with 2.79 per game. Looking at just those last 20 games, the Sabres averaged 3.40 goals per game, and that was despite being shut out twice! If Dahlin managed 53 points when his team's goals scored rate was 2.79, he'd have risen to 65 if they'd been at 3.4 all season long.

Beyond that, Dahlin tallied 21 PPPts on a team that managed just 47-man advantage goals. In doing so, he was not that far below the mighty Cale Makar in terms of his fraction of PPPts versus team PPGs, as Makar had 34 PPPts on 67 total PPG for Colorado. Buffalo, as we saw in games 63-82, is only going to improve, with Dahlin being a prime beneficiary given he's the unquestioned top dog when it comes to offense from his team's blue line, just like those who finished in the top five for defensemen points in the 2021-22 season.

4) Dougie Hamilton will set a career high in scoring rate

Last season Hamilton had his second worst scoring rate since he left the Bruins. What happened the season after he posted his worst rate? He set a career high with 40 points in 47 games, for a 70-point pace. If we look closely, we can see that Hamilton needs to adjust to a new setting, as his scoring rate in his first season with Calgary was 43 before rising to 51 in his second campaign, then there was a huge jump from a 39-point pace in his first season with Carolina to a 70-point pace in his second.

Although some would point to Hamilton actually losing the PP1 gig after he returned from injury as a source of concern, he had an IPP on the PP that was quite a bit higher than his norm, portending good things for the future. On the other hand, his overall IPP was 37.5% after averaging 51.8% in his previous seven seasons. If his 2021-22 IPP would’ve 51.8%, his scoring pace would’ve been 55 points.

There's also Hamilton's unwaveringly high SOG total, with him averaging 3.1+ SOG per game in each of the last five seasons. And although he didn't reach 3.0 per game in a season before age 24, his total of five seasons of 3.0+ in his 20s is tied for the most among any defensemen dating back to 1990-91. The only other defenseman (Rob Blake) who also had five 3.0+ SOG seasons in his 20s ended up with several more seasons where he had a 55- to 70-point scoring pace; and that was despite playing a physical game, leading to injuries taking their toll as he got into his 30s, which won’t be a concern when it comes to Hamilton, who’s more of a finesse player.

Like Buffalo, New Jersey is a team on the rise. They upped their goals per game average from 2.59 in 2020-21 to 2.98 in 2021-22 despite their top offensive player Jack Hughes missing a big chunk of the season. For 2022-23, not only is Hughes is back to full health, there's the looming arrival of Alexander Holtz, plus Nico Hischier fresh of posting a career best scoring rate in 2021-22, Yegor Sharangovich, who'll hit his breakout threshold in 2022-23, Jesper Bratt, who emerged as a legitimate threat, not to mention new addition Ondrej Palat. With Hamilton the top source of blueline offense for New Jersey, and with a huge contract in his pocket that pays him more than the combined salaries of fellow Devil defensemen Damon Severson and newly acquired John Marino, he's bound to benefit such that when the dust settles on 2022-23 he'll have topped his best ever prior scoring rate.

5) At least 15 goalies who play in 30+ games will have a better GAA and SV% than Andrei Vasilevskiy

Did Vasilevskiy shine when the spotlight was brightest during the playoffs? Absolutely. But he did that in the 2021 playoffs too, before, in the 2021-22 regular season, proceeding to post his worst SV% as a starter and, for him, a subpar GAA. Beyond that, a pattern seems to be forming where not only does Vas finish the regular season playing poorly, but also, if 2021-22 was an indication, the poor play is starting sooner and lasting longer. After all, in 2020-21 he had a 2.90 GAA and a .903 SV% in ten Q4 starts, while in 2021-22 his Q3 consisted of 12 games where he sported a GAA of 2.57 and a SV% of .910, and his Q4 was even worse, with a GAA of 2.83 and a SV% of .909 in 24 games.

Lest we think this might be a one season fluke, his second worst season as a starter was 2019-20, so he's not really been himself for two of the past three seasons. Could his workload and all those playoff games be taking a toll? I think so, in which case it should only be worse in 2022-23. After all, the team still has a below average back-up in Brian Elliott due to cap constraints, leaving Vas to likely continue to have among the heaviest workloads of all NHL netminders. In fact, since Vas became the true starter for Tampa in 2016-17, only Connor Hellebuyck has logged more regular season games, but of course fewer if you count playoffs. We've seen the effect that's had on Hellebuyck, who's barely older than Vas.

Another sign that Vas is no longer at the top of his game is shutouts. Looking at the 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2020-21 campaigns, Vas averaged a shutout in just a bit less than one of every eight starts. But Vas had a mere two clean sheets in 63 games for 2021-22. This might have been something poolies could disregard were it not for similar data for 2019-20, when he had just three in 52 contests, adding up yet again to troubling data in two of the past three seasons.

It's a similar story when looking at SV% on a given number of days rest. In 2021-22 Vasilevskiy's SV% with one day of rest, which is often what a heavy workload goalie receives, was just .911, with it rising for two days rest and further increasing for three before dropping for four or more. The same was true in 2019-20, while in 2017-18 and 2018-19 it was above .920 no matter how many days rest he received.

As long as he continues to shine when he's needed most, namely during the playoffs, and his team doesn't have a capable back-up, Vas' workload likely stays high in the regular season. As such, I think the trends from two of the past three seasons, plus the ends of each of the past two, will continue and his SV% and GAA will suffer enough to put him in the middle of the pack in those areas.

6) Nick Suzuki will finish in the top five in points among centers in the Eastern Conference

On paper, Suzuki's 2021-22 looked like it saw him essentially tread water, with his scoring pace up just a single point from 60 in 2020-21 to 61. But 36 of the 61 came in his final 33 games. He also managed to tally 20 PPPts for a team that had a mere 34 PPGs and a PP conversion percentage of 13.7%, which not only was second worst of any squad last season, but among the ten worst percentages of any NHL team over the past decade! Although no one expects the Habs to become a PP powerhouse in 2022-23, there's only one way to go, which is up; and with Suzuki already so dialed into PP scoring, even a modest improvement of, say, ten total PPGs, would likely mean more than a handful of added points for Suzuki on top of the better than point per game output he had for nearly the second half of the season.

Beyond that, the chemistry Suzuki developed with Cole Caufield after Martin St. Louis was installed as coach was superb despite defenses keying on that line due to the team not having a semblance of other offensive weapons. And let's also remember Suzuki will be starting 2022-23 with St. Louis as now the official head coach and at game #210 of his career, meaning he's right at his breakout threshold, and, as such, could have yet another gear beyond what we saw from him at the end of 2021-22.

Here's something else to consider. Although Suzuki was 27th among centers in points in 2021-22, he actually stood tenth among those from the Eastern conference, as most top pivots were in the West. For Suzuki to rise to fifth in the East would not be as daunting as it might seem, although it will likely require point per game scoring or better as that would have been what it took last season; but he was already doing that for his last 33 games. Even on a Montreal team likely to continue to struggle, I think Suzuki's talent will be enough to see him accomplish this feat.

7) Mathew Barzal will set a career high in points in 2022-23

It might seem a lot longer ago than 2017-18 when Barzal, a fresh-faced 20-year-old rookie, took the NHL by storm with 85 points. Expectations were that would be the start of an outstanding career, as looking at other rookie centers dating back to 1990-91 the only ones who posted 85+ points as a rookie at that age or younger were Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, who went on to greatness. Yet in the case of Barzal, his next four seasons have seen him finish with a scoring pace ranging from 62-72, disappointing many a poolie in the process.

It's not difficult to realize how/why this happened, as 2018-19 was the first season that Barry Trotz was the coach for the Islanders. Under his system, offensive weapons the likes of Barzal found it difficult to thrive. It wasn't just affecting him – Anders Lee went from a career best 62-point scoring pace in 2017-18 to a 50- to 58-point scoring rate in each of his next four seasons. Meanwhile, a two-way center like Brock Nelson thrived, as he'd never scored above a 46-point pace in five prior seasons but twice posted a 65+ point scoring rate during the Trotz era.

Now Trotz is gone though, and I realize the "book" on Lane Lambert is he's more like Trotz than not; but he also understands that what happened in 2021-22 didn't work. What did occur? Barzal took the ice for a mere 21 seconds more than Nelson and the most common PP1 unit included not just Nelson but somehow Jean-Gabriel Pageau. This despite the likes of Anthony Beauvillier, Oliver Wahlstrom and Kiefer Bellows, plus even veterans Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise being ready, willing, and able to seize a spot on the top unit. Neverthelss, Barzal managed 20 PPPts for a team that tallied just 46 PPGs. Although that fraction is not quite as impressive as what Suzuki did on Montreal, it more than amply shows Barzal has talent that was being wasted alongside inferior players on the man advantage.

Did New York suddenly get better, personnel-wise in the offseason? No; however, who's to say they don't have the necessary parts to help Barzal thrive, notably the aforementioned five wingers, who, if they were allowed to play a more up-tempo style, likely would benefit Barzal and allow him to help them as well. And Barzal doesn't need much to enable him to rise, as in both of the last two seasons he played point per game hockey over his two best quarters. The issue was due to the Trotz system the Islanders offense was too deemphasized for him to keep up that pace all season long. So although Lambert probably won't let his players go nuts in terms of a fully wide open style, Barzal, who's now squarely in his prime, shouldn't need much to turn into the player he was supposed to be based on the impressive rookie total he posted and what happened to the other two other centers who met the same criteria as Barzal as a rookie, namely Crosby and Malkin, as both posted huge numbers in subsequent seasons, including ones where they didn't have wingers skating alongside them who were any better than the current Islanders' crop.

8) If he plays 75+ NHL games, Calen Addison will score 50+ points

As it currently stands, Addison has 18 career………..games played. In those, he managed only four points. Why, then, do I think he'll be so successful in 2022-23? One word – opportunity.

Jared Spurgeon ran Minnesota's PP1 in 2021-22 despite never having tallied even 15 PPPts in a full season, while Matt Dumba has had recurring health issues plus has failed to replicate the success he had back in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Alex Goligoski is too old to pose a threat to lock down any PP1 time, plus Jonas Brodin is too valuable defensively. The cap constrained Wild can't bring in a big money PP QB.

Can a rearguard with as little NHL experience as Addision seize, and succeed in, a PP1 QB role when he's not a supreme offensive talent the likes of Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes? Yes – in fact we saw it occur in 2021-22 with Moritz Seider in Detroit, who leapfrogged Filip Hronek and Nick Leddy to run PP1, with Hronek and Leddy being the Detroit versions of, respectively, Spurgeon and Goligoski. Granted, Seider was more highly regarded than Addison; however, what Seider achieved shows that teams – like the Wild – who don't have a reliable PP1 QB are willing to let a rookie have his shot to seize the reins.

I see a scenario playing out where Addison steps into a PP1 role, achieving success and then being able to parlay that into more ice time in general such that when the dust settles he should be able to post 50+ points. He's a superb risk/reward player for 2021-22 in my book.

9) At least one goalie who played in 30+ games and had a GAA above 3.00 in 2021-22 will finish in the top five in GAA for 2022-23 among goalies who play 30+ games

For those not keeping track at home, 16 goalies met the 30+ games, 3.00+ GAA criteria in 2021-22, including the likes of Alex Nedeljkovic, John Gibson, Philipp Grubauer, Carter Hart, Jordan Binnington, and Ilya Samsonov. Does it seem farfetched to imagine any of them, or one of the others, righting his ship enough to land in the top five for GAA in 2022-23? Maybe; but it shouldn't, as the goalie in fifth place for 2021-22 in GAA among those appearing in 30+ games finished with 2.41 GAA. And of those who were north of 3.00 in 2021-22, all but Hart – who misses the cut off by 0.01 – and Samsonov have at least one previous season to their credit where their GAA was 2.41 or lower.

Beyond that, Binnington appeared to rediscover his game in the 2022 playoffs, while Nedeljkovic and Gibson play for teams likely on the rise, and Hart is still young enough to round back into form, plus Philly realizes it needs to focus on defense if it wants to win and hired John Tortorella to that end. Samsonov was once as highly touted as Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin and could end up the #1 in Toronto if Matt Murray falters or gets injured, and Grubauer could rebound now that expectations have been lowered. Let's also acknowledge when it comes to goalies, year-to-year consistency is now more the exception than the rule. After all, in 2020-21 the top three goalies in GAA who played 30+ games were Grubauer, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Semyon Varlamov, who finished, respectively, 35th, 25th, and 36th in that category for 2021-22. Here's betting that at least one of those whose GAA was 3.00+ in 2021-22 will play well enough to land in the top five in GAA for the 2022-23 campaign.

10) Alex Ovechkin will get 40+ goals, but under 70 points

Poolies look at Ovi's 2021-22 and can't help but think that he's turned the page to yet another elite chapter of his hall of fame career. But there were concerning signs beneath the surface.

For starters, Ovi had 37 points in his first 22 games for 2021-22. What about in the 55 subsequent contests he played? Try 53 points, or a 79-point full season pace for nearly two-thirds of the season. Also, Ovi started a remarkable 74.7% of his 2021-22 shifts in the offensive zone. Yes, that figure was 72.0% in 2020-21; however, before it hadn't been even 60% going back to at least 2012-13. In 2021-22 Ovi also had his highest IPPs both overall and on the PP in, respectively, eight and seven seasons. It's also notable that Ovi not only had his highest assist total in a decade, but in doing so his secondary assist rate was 42.5% after averaging 34.0% over the previous three seasons. Several assists he tallied likely will not recur.

Another issue is Ovi will be without his linemate Tom Wilson for the first few months of the 2022-23 season, making it so teams might try to take liberties with Ovi they wouldn't otherwise do if Wilson was on the ice. Also, with Nicklas Backstrom's career in doubt and T.J Oshie looking his age and fighting injuries himself, that not only will blunt the effectiveness of the once vaunted Washington PP, but also make it so defenses won't have to worry as much about contending with another line, allowing them to focus on Ovi even more.

Moreover, as great as Ovi's career has been, only once since 2014-15 has he been a point per game player two seasons in a row. Although past results do not dictate future outcomes, the last time Ovi bested 90 points in a season he fell to just 78 in 78 games the following campaign, and that was back when he was in his 20s, whereas now he'll be 37 when the puck drops on 2022-23. Lastly, in 2021-22 Ovi became just the second player in NHL history to tally 50 goals at age 35+. The other player who did so was Johnny Buyck, who never again bested 40. Granted, Ovi is a far better goal scorer than Buyck ever was; however, Buyck did finish with 545 for his career, so he was no slouch in that department.

Make no mistake – Ovi is still more talented at this stage in his career than 95% of those ten or more years younger, but the pieces seemingly are not in place for him to taste his normal success in 2022-23.

11) Devon Toews will finish behind Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, and Bowen Byram in points per game

I'm not here to say that Toews isn't a solid defenseman capable of putting up decent numbers. Yes, he'll likely continue to play alongside his most frequent defensive partner Makar again in 2022-23, which should automatically position him to get his fair share of points. However, I think that unsustainable good luck Toews had in 2021-22, plus the skill of both Girard and Byram, not to mention Makar, will be enough to relegate Toews to fourth among Avs defensemen in points per game.

As great as Toews' 71-point scoring pace from 2021-22 looks, keep in mind he emerged with 20 points in his first 15 games, meaning thereafter he only tallied 37 points in 51 games, for a 59-point full season scoring pace. He had just 11 in his final 19 contests, for an even lower 47-point pace. Plus, of Toews' 44 assists, a remarkable 75% (i.e., 33) were secondary. If that seems excessively high, it is, as just two defensemen who played in more games had a greater percentage; and looking at the other defensemen who had a secondary assist rate of 65% or higher, they consisted of two who far and away set career bests in points (Aaron Ekblad, Charlie McAvoy), making their totals suspect, and two veterans who well exceeded their expected totals (Noah Hanifin, Justin Faulk). Toews not only will come back to earth due to there being no way he comes close to 75% secondary assists again, but those who bested even 65% were players who seemed to have unsustainably good luck.

On top of that, Toews tied for 34th in defensemen PPPts even though he logged only the 56th most PP minutes among rearguards, with only four of his 12 PPPts coming in his last 36 games, versus eight in his first 30. He should shed points in that area as well.

Toews also took the ice for 56.9% of his team's shorthanded minutes, which was the 19th highest percentage among any defenseman who played 50+ games, with just three whose percentages were higher even averaging a point per every other game (Brent Burns – 54-point pace; Alex Pietrangelo – 45-point pace; and Cam Fowler – also 45-point pace). Although Makar's SH ice time rate was 30%, both Girard and Byram were under 15%. With tougher minutes than Girard and Byram, that'll inhibit Toews' ability to continue to outpoint them.

Beyond these factors, Girard and Byram are both highly talented, with Girard having already had a 55-point scoring pace season and Byram being among the most touted young rearguards. Both are more than capable of posting 45-50+ points in 2022-23, in which case they could end up with a higher rate than Toews after he regresses. As for Makar, I don't even think I need to plead his case, as a universe doesn't exist in which he doesn't, on a per game basis, outpoint Toews by a wide margin.

Toews was a nice story for 2021-22 and made a lot of fantasy GMs very happy, but smart ones will already have sold high on him.

12) Nikita Kucherov's PPPts total will be higher than the overall point total from the highest scorer from at least one other team

Yes, I realize this is similar to one of my forecasts from last season; but it's slightly modified to be more realistic, yet still definitely a fearless forecast. Why am I going to the well again? Kucherov had 30 PPPts in the 47 regular season games he logged in 2021-22, including 16 alone in his last 21 contests. His full season pace was 52 PPPts, and that was after a long injury layoff. If we look at the top forward scorers from struggling teams in 2021-22, in Philly it was Travis Konecny with 52 points while in Seattle it was Jared McCann with 50 points. Theoretically this could've come true for 2021-22 had Kucherov played a full season. Chances are the Flyers aren't on tap to get significantly better offensively in 2022-23, whereas Kucherov, between the regular season and playoffs, will have had nearly a full season of games under his belt, allowing him to hit the ground running in 2022-23 and, if my senses are correct, play well enough on the man advantage to made this forecast come true.

13) Zach Werenski will finish behind only Cale Makar in defensemen goals per game

Last season Werenski potted 11 markers in 68 contests, tying for 15th among defensemen in goals per game. In doing so, however, he shot only 5.1%. Had he shot at 7.8%, which was his career shooting percentage going into the 2021-22 season, he'd have had six more goals, for 17 in 68 games, which would've ranked him 3rd in goals per game among d-men. What's most notable about Werenski's 2021-22 is he hit a combined 13 crossbars and posts – yes, two more than his goal total! Beyond that, no other rearguard besides Cale Makar – who clanged ten crossbars and posts – had more than seven, and Makar had 28 goals, to lead to lead all defensemen.

Moreover, Werenski had a cumulative rate of 0.186 goals per game over his first four seasons and 11+ goals in each campaign, all occurring before his hockey age was 23. The list of defensemen in the modern era who also met both criteria within the same age range consists of only four others: Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, and Larry Murphy. Housley had 29 goals at age 23 and 26 at age 24, Bourque had 31 at age 23 and 20 in 73 games at age 24, while Orr potted 37 at age 23 and 29 at age 24, and even Murphy had 14 at age 23 and 21 at age 24. That's some pretty fine company in which Werenski finds himself. If their results are any indication, and factoring in the other information noted above, Werenski could be in for a big surge in goals for 2022-23, especially with newly signed playmaker extraordinaire Johnny Gaudreau skating for Columbus.

Why, then, am I not predicting Werenski will finish first in goals per game among rearguards? Although my goal is indeed for these to be fearless forecasts, so long as Cale Makar is in the NHL, I cannot in my right mind predict that a rearguard, be it Werenski or anyone else, will finish ahead of Makar in any per game scoring statistic. Second place behind just the venerable Makar – that I can see happening.

14) Marco Rossi won't average a point per every other game if he plays center

After biding his time in the AHL last season, Rossi is on track to be with the Wild for game one and, most likely, to be handed a top six center role. Even if he does indeed get that gig, will it automatically write his ticket to fantasy success as a rookie? I'm thinking no.

On Minnesota's first line, Ryan Hartman meshed with Kirll Kaprizov in 2021-22, plus has a sandpaper style that serves to protect Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. I see the 5'9'' Rossi as a long shot to occupy the top line center position, displacing the protective and effective Hartman and alongside the even shorter Zuccarello. Okay, so that means Rossi gets a second line spot, to play with young phenom Matt Boldy, right? The issue is with Kevin Fiala gone that line stands to be less potent. Also, while Rossi is highly touted, Frederick Gaudreau did a pretty good job in that spot for 2021-22, with 36 points in his last 45 games, so he might have something to say about who occupies the second line center spot for the Wild. And also lurking is Joel Eriksson Ek, who's only seen his scoring rate increase for four straight seasons and was a former first round pick as well.

Fine, then at least Rossi will be on PP1. Not so fast. Last season on PP1 the Wild rolled with Kaprizov, Hartman, Zuccarello, and Eriksson Ek, who plays a physical game and takes up at lot of real estate at 6'3'' and over 200 pounds, plus was quite productive with the man advantage. Let's not forget that Fiala, who scored over a point per game and fired the 40th most PPSOG among all forwards despite only taking the ice for the 59th most PP minutes, barely sniffed PP1; and if someone is going to punch a ticket there in place of perhaps Hartman or Eriksson Ek, it'd likely be Boldy over the undersized Rossi.

There's also the issue of Rossi being a center. According to nhl.com, in the 2021-22 season a total of 42 centers played in 40+ games while averaging 0.75 points per game (i.e., a 61-point pace). Of them, just seven weren't at least six feet tall, with only three (Brayden Point, Mikael Granlund, and Jonathan Marchessault) being under 5'11'', and only Marchessault being as short as Rossi. Looking at wingers, several current NHLers have had success at some point in their careers despite being no taller than Rossi, including Brendan Gallagher, Yanni Gourde, Victor Arvidsson, Cam Atkinson, Zuccarello, plus three of the top wingers in the game: Brad Marchand, Alex Debrincat, and Johnny Gaudreau. So really only Marchessault has achieved success despite being as short as Rossi, and Marchessault arguably is more of a winger than a center, making it so no top scoring center in today's NHL is as short as Rossi. To me that says a lot about what it takes to succeed as a pivot nowadays, and makes me even more worried about Rossi's ability to produce, at least as a rookie if not long term as well.

Looking back over the past ten seasons, a total of only 16 "centers" (again according to nhl.com) who were 5'9'' or shorter played in 100+ cumulative games, with just two of them cumulatively averaging even a point per every other game: David Desharnais and Tyler Johnson. That's not very encouraging data to say the least; but it speaks volumes as to the reality that successful centers in today's NHL are not as undersized as Rossi. Given this, plus his team circumstances, I think Rossi will disappoint amidst lofty expectations for 2022-23.

15) Anton Forsberg will finish with at least ten more wins than Cam Talbot

*Editor's note: This was submitted before news of Cam Talbot's injury news broke that will see him miss at least the first month of the season*

Most have presumed the veteran Cam Talbot, who's a UFA to be with almost 300 more career games played than Forsberg, has the inside track to be the #1 netminder in Ottawa or, failing that, be the #1A. But guess what – I think Forsberg will outplay Talbot and, in the process, run away with the starting job.

Forsberg's stats largely disguise that he was already a very good goalie last season on a not so great Ottawa team, and, perhaps more importantly, a better goalie than Talbot who was playing for the superior Wild. Forsberg had the ninth best SV% at .919 last season (Talbot's was .911 and he's five years removed from the last season where he last posted a .919+ SV% while playing in 40+ games) despite a 2.82 GAA (Talbot's was a nearly comparable 2.77 and twice in the prior four seasons he sported a GAA that was above 3.00) and with no goalie ranked ahead of Forsberg facing as many as his 31.67 SOG per game (Talbot faced 30.36). In fact, the next best SV% for a goalie who faced more SOG per game than Forsberg was Connor Hellebuyck at .910, which ranked ten spots below Forsberg's .919 among goalies who played 40+ games.

Forsberg's better SV% and nearly equal GAA versus Talbot are made all the more impressive when looking at their respective goal support. With Talbot in net in 2021-22, the Wild averaged 3.39 goals per 60 minutes and had a goal differential of +30, versus 2.82 per 60 minutes for Forsberg and a zero goal-differential. Given this data, is there any other takeaway than Forsberg having had the superior season?

Wait, there's more. Six of the eight goalies who had a better SV% last season than Forsberg, and who likewise appeared in 40+ games, happened to have finished in the top ten in wins. Also, Forsberg was one of only four goalies to appear in 40+ games in 2021-22 and have a .915 SV% or higher on two, three, and four or more days rest, with the others being Ilya Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Darcy Kuemper, two of whom were in the top five in wins and the other – Sorokin – being considered a realistic bet to become Igor Shesterkin 2.0.

Also, Forsberg's high danger save percentage was bested by only seven other goalies who appeared in at least as many – 46 – games as Forsberg, as compared to 20 who had a higher percentage in 46+ games than Talbot. Forsberg's Quality Start Percentage was an even better third among goalies appearing in 46+ games (Talbot ranked 14th despite nine in his last 13 starts), and Forsberg's Goalie Point Share – a stat heavily influenced by playing volume – ranking was 14th (Talbot was at 17) despite appearing in only 46 games, with the average appearances by the 13 goalies ranked ahead of him being 59.

Although Forsberg had six Really Bad Starts, half were in his first eight appearances, and he had a mere one Quality Start in his first six games, giving him 27 QSs in his last 40. In other words, he started slow, which dragged down his stats. And even more impressive was that Forsberg played some of his best hockey in the month plus that the Sens were without Thomas Chabot, who led all defensemen in minutes per game. Talbot had seven Really Bad Starts, spaced pretty evenly throughout the season.

When the dust settles on 2022-23, I think Ottawa will be a vastly better team. One of the reasons for their improvement will have been a willingness to lean on Forsberg over Talbot, since as shown above it was Forsberg who was the better goalie in 2021-22 and figures to be superior again in 2022-23.

16) Andrei Svechnikov will finish no better than fifth in points per game among Hurricane players

I realize some of you who are reading this aren't avid followers of my Roos Lets Loose columns; but if you are, then you know I think that in points only leagues Andrei Svechnikov is the most overhyped forward in all of fantasy. Couple that with Carolina being a strong, deep team, and there is a recipe for disappointment among Svechnikov owners in points leagues, as when all is said and done for 2022-23, I believe Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis, and Max Pacioretty, plus one or more of Brent Burns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, or Martin Necas will have better points per game than Svech.

Why am I so against Svech, a former second overall pick who's still just 22 and last season had career best in SOG per game and PPPts, plus nearly bested his career highs in scoring and ice time per game? It's pretty simple – IPP. Svech's average IPP over his first four seasons has been 61.9%, which is very low for someone as well regarded as him. It's also the likely reason why, once Jarvis started rounding into form, Svech was put alongside Vincent Trocheck and Martin Necas at even strength last season, finishing with 33 points in 42 games and only 19 in his last 29 contests.

Back to IPP – of the 47 forwards who scored more points than Svech's 69 last season, a mere two had an overall IPP lower than his 63.3% – Chris Kreider, whose IPP had been 53.1% or lower each of the previous three seasons, and Elias Lindholm, who happened to be centering a line with two 104+ point scorers, so it wasn't really his "fault" that his IPP was that low. If we go to those who were below Svechnikov in IPP last season but still scored 60+ points, we get Ryan Hartman, Tomas Hertl, Ryan Johansen, Taylor Hall, Michael Bunting, Andre Burakovsky, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Not a very impressive list, as most are not projected to be big scorers. The company in which Svech finds himself by virtue of his IPP does not bode well for his scoring in 2022-23 and beyond.

Looking at the 2021-22 IPPs of the other projected top six forwards for Carolina, sure enough all of them were above Svech's mark. Coincidence? I think not. Plus, both Pacioretty and Jarvis were above 70%, and as such could relegate Svech to the second line, if not third. Svech's spot on the PP also could be at risk, as his IPP just on the PP was 56.3%, whereas all the other top six Canes forwards had marks that were above 73%. I get Svech being on PP1 is logical given his size and sandpaper style; however, once Pacioretty returns, one of Aho, Teravainen, Jarvis, or Svech will need to be pushed aside to make room for him, and Svech could be the odd man out, hurting his scoring in the process.

Although Svechnikov is still plenty young enough to show us he has another gear, from what we've seen thus far it's not clear he has one. When all is said and done 2022-23 might be the season in which he's the biggest disappointment amid even loftier expectations than accompanied him in seasons past.

17) Elvis Merzlikins will lead the league in netminder appearances

Last season Merzlikins had an off campaign, perhaps stemming from not only witnessing the death of teammate Matiss Kivlenieks, but knowing that his death might have been related to him successfully saving the life of Merzilikins' wife and unborn child. That's a mighty heavy cross to bear; and all things considered, Merzlikins showed a lot by just soldering through the season.

Soldier through he did, culminating in him in appearing in 27 of the last 30 Blue Jacket games, and this for a team well out of the playoff chase. Plus, in doing so, Merzlikins' stats actually improved, ending the season with just 17 goals allowed in his last eight contests. On top of that, the Blue Jackets brought back underperforming Joonas Korpisalo to be the back-up, despite Korpisalo having the worst SV%, GAA, and QS% of any netminder who appeared in 20+ games last season. Yes, Daniil Tarasov looms; however, there's no way Columbus has Tarasov be the back-up only to sit idle for weeks at a time – he will ply his trade in the AHL for now.

Let's also not forget Columbus made a splash this offseason in signing Johnny Gaudreau; so the team obviously has designs on making the playoffs. For that to occur, they know they need to tie their fate to Merzlikins in net and allow him to be a workhorse. With Merzlikins being drafted, as I write this, outside the top-150 in Yahoo leagues, a lot of folks will be pleased with the bargain they got when Merzlikins racks up saves and wins, plus, if the end of last season was an indication, ups his peripherals as well.

************

I know what you're thinking. Since when does 17 equal 15? Let's just say I covered my bases, since I'm not sure if one of the Colorado defensemen will get traded during the season, and/or Calen Addision will be with the Wild for all of 2022-23. Plus, isn't 17 even better than 15?

Will all of these Forecasts come true? It would take a miracle. But do you think you have what it takes to predict the ones that will come to pass, versus those that won't? Good news – I've set up a poll in the DobberHockey Forums where you can vote on the ones you agree with, plus add some predictions of your own. Here is the link.  Have fun voting, and best of luck to your fantasy teams in 2022-23!

Next week it'll be back to Roos Lets Loose content as per usual, with an edition of the monthly mailbag, which could use a couple more questions. To send your fantasy hockey question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers in the mailbag, either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or (2) send them to me via email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.