Draft on Tap for TSN’s Happy Hour

Dobber Sports

2008-04-05

  

 

Try as TSN might, the 2008 NHL Entry Draft isn't anywhere near as captivating as the 2005 edition. However, there's still plenty at stake. Learn a bit more about the convoluted lottery process in today's Bugg Bytes. 

It's probably the most common question come April: "How the **** does this work?" The NHL Entry Draft lottery is a silly, silly thing. A lot of it has to do with the terminology. For example: the Leafs could win the draft lottery. It's an absolutely true statement. But it doesn't mean they can get the first overall pick. Similarly, the Lightning could lose the lottery, but pick first overall. Dumb, ain't it?

The 'prize' of the lottery isn't the first overall pick- it's the ability to move up in the draft order by as many as four spots. Any non-playoff team can win the lottery. The losers of the lottery- every other team- can drop only one spot in the order.

Current standings:

17. Carolina (92 pts, 43 W, 0 GR)
18. Chicago (88 pts, 40 W, 1 GR)
19. Buffalo (88 pts, 38 W, 1 GR)
20. Vancouver (88 pts, 38 W, 1 GR)
21. Edmonton (88 pts, 41 W, 0 GR)
22. Florida (85 pts, 38 W, 1 GR)
23. Toronto (83 pts, 36 W, 1 GR)
24. Phoenix (82 pts, 38 W, 1 GR)
25. Columbus (80 pts, 34 W, 2 GR)
26. Islanders (79 pts, 35 W, 0 GR)
27. St. Louis (75 pts, 31 W, 2 GR)
28. Atlanta (74 pts, 33 W, 1 GR)
29. Los Angeles (71 pts, 32 W, 1 GR)
30. Tampa Bay (71 pts, 31 W, 1 GR)

Let's assume this is how the standings finish. Order prior to lottery:

14. Carolina
13. Chicago
12. Buffalo
11. Vancouver
10. Edmonton
09. Florida
08. Toronto
07. Phoenix
06. Columbus
05. Islanders
04. St. Louis
03. Atlanta
02. Los Angeles
01. Tampa Bay

So, Carolina can win the lottery, and jump from 14th overall to 10th overall. Burke could get the ultimate revenge and have Edmonton's pick become the sixth- a dream scenario as there are seven players he feels are above everyone else.

Of course, it's not that simple. The odds are weighted in favor of the lesser teams, with Tampa Bay having 25% of the 'balls' in the 'lottery machine'*. Carolina has 0.5%.

To make it more difficult, you'll hear other statistics. Tampa has 25% of the balls, but has a 48.2% chance of keeping the first overall pick. Why? Only four other teams can win and unseat Tampa from the first overall pick- LA, Atlanta, St. Louis and the Isles. The combined balls of the other teams are more than are owned by each of LA, Atlanta, St. Louis and NYI, and of course Tampa has more balls than anyone.

📢 advertisement:

Despite owning an almost 50/50 chance of picking first overall, the last-place team has been shafted since 2000:

2000- Islanders 1st overall (5th before lottery)
2001- Atlanta 1st overall (3rd before lottery)
2002- Florida 1st overall (3rd before lottery)
2003- Florida 1st overall (4th before lottery)
2004- Washington 1st overall (3rd before lottery)
2006- St. Louis 1st overall (1st before lottery)
2007- Chicago 1st overall (5th before lottery)

Now, if that wasn't exhaustive enough, it may not even matter what happens in the lottery. 2002 and 2003 saw the Panthers trade the first overall pick, to Columbus and Pittsburgh respectively. 2002's top three featured Rick Nash, Kari Lehtonen and Jay Bouwmeester- franchise players at each position. 2003 was similar, with MA Fleury, Eric Staal and Nathan Horton considered above everyone else. It just so happened that the teams at 3 and 1 wanted the players ranked 1 and 3.

2008 doesn't initially look like a Draft in which it might happen, but the 1st overall pick may end up in play. Both St. Louis and Los Angeles boast tremendous prospect depth at forward, but lack premier names on the back end. Eller-Stamkos-Boyes would be a nice line, but so would a pairing of EJ-Schenn. Similarly, a one-two punch of Kopitar and Stamkos could be this decade's Sakic-Forsberg, but Doughty-JJ could be this decade's Bourque-Blake.

Monday at 8 PM ET will answer a lot of questions. But it'll also create a bunch. Keep an eye on DobberHockey; I'll have a mock draft ready for the results as soon as the lottery's over.

*It'll bore most everyone, but the NHL doesn't use a plain old bingo tumbler:

"Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, were placed in a lottery machine. The machine expelled four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls was matched against a probability chart that divided the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs."- NHL.com

Snooooooooze.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 24 - 19:03 NYI vs CBJ
Mar 24 - 19:03 N.J vs VAN
Mar 24 - 20:03 DAL vs MIN
Mar 24 - 21:03 UTA vs DET

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DYLAN COZENS OTT
MICHAEL MCCARRON NSH
LUCA CAGNONI S.J
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
TAYLOR HALL CAR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ERIC COMRIE WPG
ILYA SAMSONOV VGK
JOEL HOFER STL
TRISTAN JARRY PIT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
21.3 JOE VELENO PHILIPP KURASHEV TYLER BERTUZZI
21.2 FRANK NAZAR RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
20.6 TEUVO TERAVAINEN ILYA MIKHEYEV NICK FOLIGNO

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Three Cs Becoming Three Os

Elan and Shams are here to update you on the recent injury news headlined by Draisaitl and the potential light at the end of the tunnel for Shea Theodore’s return. They close out the show discussing hot Blues, cold Defencemen and Shams trying to convince Elan about some potential streaky players to add.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Trade Deadline Prospect Movers

The trade deadline is past us…were any of the prospects traded fantasy-relevant? Victor and Jesse hit them all to get Victor’s analysis. Covered are:  Shane LaChance, Patrick Giles, Kyle Aucoin, Herman Traff, Brendan Brisson, Justin Brazeau, Marat Khusnutdinov, Calum Ritchie, William Dufour, Nikita Grebenkin, William Zellers, Aku Raty, Chase Stillman, Max Graham, Tristen Robins, Zack […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: