Curse of a Safe Pick

Dobber Sports

2008-10-07

Voracek

 

Where is the love? Jakub Voracek may be the safest prospect to snag this season and in many leagues he is waiver fodder. Steven Stamkos gets all the attention. He is supposedly the superstar top pick to which we've become accustomed. With the success of past first overalls in their first years, you can't blame poolies for going after this kid. We have been truly spoiled by instant-impact rookies from the number one slot. It should happen for Stamkos, but Voracek may be an even safer prospect for this season.

 

 

As Dobber discussed, other players like Nikita Filatov have gotten minimal attention while fantasy players have paid huge sums to grab Stamkos. Filatov has monstrous upside partially because he is very much an unknown. This creates excitement and intrigue and allows for greater upside due to those unknowns. As we learn more about him, it is very likely his upside will come down to a more typical star range. Still, it is either a positive or negative that he is a wild card depending on the type of risk taker you are.

 

On another note, there is something to be said for a known commodity. The allure of upside and unknown is powerful with young prospects, and so much is positive until something goes wrong. Jakub Voracek has done nothing wrong thus far. But we all know that, so he might not be as interesting. He is an extremely well-rounded prospect that few are extremely excited about. Sure, he is owned in most leagues with prospect teams, but most one-year leagues aren't taking him as a late draft gamble. 
 

In yahoo, the fantasy system I usually play in, Voracek isn't even drafted in enough leagues to be given an average draft position ranking. Even after many waiver wires opened, Voracek is only owned in 5% of leagues. Meanwhile, the heavily hyped Stamkos is drafted on average as the 130th pick in drafts and is owned in 79% of yahoo leagues. That discrepancy is unrealistic considering their track records and talent when compared. Stamkos is the better prospect at this point yes (even just for trade value alone), but Voracek has done nothing to hurt hi