Russ is on hiatus for the summer, so I'll be filling in for him. You Dobberities won't miss out on the Eastern half half of the information for your fantasy leagues in these series of columns, so don't worry!

 

As many of the Dobber writers have alluded to, most of offensive production boils down to opportunity. A top-line player will receive every possible chance to succeed, while a top-six player will receive decent even strength/second unit power-play ice-time for production. A bottom feeder will most likely receive checking line time and definitely won't receive ample optimal scoring time. Their big break will only come if there are injuries or struggles of young players from their team's top-six. We all like to be optimistic with our projections, but there really isn't a point in projection 80 points for a player who won't even crack a team's top-line, let alone top-six. If you haven't read my projections article, definitely go and take a gander. I know I had an eye-opening experience when digging up all the stats. Note: Take the line combos with a grain of salt. They are just arbitrary and are used primarily to separate a team's top-six from the bottom-six. I really don't want to get into arguments about player X had chemistry with player Y, therefore they'll be on a line together during the season. I must add that I'm not as informed about the East as I am with the West, so if there are any controversial items, be sure to make comments at the bottom of the page to open up some discussion.

 

The following table was the same from last week's column, so make sure you pay attention to the numbers.

 

 

Offensive Player's scoring position on team	West	East	League	Median	Max	Min
Top	74.6	74.1	74.3	70	112	51
2nd	62.8	64.5	63.7	61	101	41
3rd	55.1	54.5	54.8	53	84	37
4th	47.7	45.1	46.4	47	67	33
5th	42.7	38.2	40.5	38.5	53	32
6th	36	34	35	34	53	2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enough of the stats, now onto the good stuff.

 

Carolina – Top-five fairly locked, but faces decent competition from bottom-six

Top Six

Erik Cole – Eric Staal – Jussi Jokinen

Tuomo Ruutu – Brandon Sutter – Zach Boychuk

 

Cavalry

Drayson Bowman, Sergei Samsonov, Jiri Tlusty

 

Bottom Feeders

Chad Larose, Tom Kostopoulos, Jerome Samson, and Pat Dwyer

 

The Canes boast a good mix of youngsters and veterans within their top-six. Staal is the leader on the ice as well as in the scoring department as he's averaged 75.7 points, 56 PIMs, 27.3 PPP, along with 319.7 SOG as a stat line during his last three seasons. He isn't a bad consolation prize if you missed out on the Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin sweepstakes in your drafts. Despite owning a 0.63 career point-per-game average, Cole has missed an average of 14.8 contests per season. A simple statement of, "if he plays, he'll be gold, if he doesn't, he'll be a bust" pretty much sums his fantasy value. Jokinen spent 40.6 percent of his overall ice-time last season alongside Staal.

 

With Ray Whitney out of the mix from the Hurricane's top-six, you should expect Jokinen to see an increase in that department for 2010-11. Sutter will be a great sleeper option this season, he was buried a bit behind Rod Brind'Amour and Matt Cullen for the last two years, but shouldn't face any hurdles as the Canes' clear cut number two center this campaign. The final top-six spot is where most of the competition for ice-time will occur. It'll be a battle of former first round picks as Boychuk(14^th overall), Samsonov (eighth), and Tlusty (13^th) will most likely battle it out. The dark horse, and Dobber favourite, Bowman could also factor in the races as well.

 

Last year's pre-season top-six:

 

Whitney, Staal, Cole, Samonsov, Ruutu, and Matt Cullen.

 

End of year finish:

 

Staal	70
Jokinen	65
Whitney	58
Cullen	40
Sutter	40
Ruutu	35

 

 

Florida – Top-five fairly set, weak competition from cavalry

 

Top Six

David Booth – Stephen Weiss – Michael Frolik

Cory Stillman– Steven Reinprecht – Rotislav Olesz

 

Cavalry

Steve Bernier, Radek Dvorak, and Chris Higgins

 

Bottom Feeders

Michael Grabner, Shawn Matthias, and Byron Bitz

 

They might be in for a slow rebuilding process, but at the end of the day new GM Dale Tallon knows how to get the job done. The top-five seems fairly set, but the talent level isn't going to blow anyone's socks off this season. With Nathan Horton out the door, the Panthers are now completely Weiss' team. He won't put up staggering offensive numbers, but as a number one center I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-point 180 SOG season out of the former fourth overall pick. Booth was on a decent season before battling a few nasty concussions in 2009-10. With the cupboards pretty bare, he should also enjoy a few more added responsibilities with the Panthers this campaign.

 

If you look plainly at the stat lines, you might have drawn a conclusion that Frolik took a step backwards last year following a very respectable rookie season. But if you dig a little deeper, you might have noticed that he actually increased his responsibilities as his ice-time increased from 14:48 to 17:28 and his power-play time also increased from 2:13 to 2:47 between the two campaigns. With potential top-line duties available this season, look for rebound season for Frolik. Reinprecht continues to produce solid under-the-radar numbers, but unfortunately they aren't of the fantasy value variety. Stillman has a 0.71 point-per-game average for the last two seasons, but the problem lies within the injury bug that keeps biting him.

 

Olesz, Bernier, Dvorak, Grabner and Higgins are all 35-45 point players, so there isn't much fantasy value available there. A dark horse candidate that might creep up in the Florida ranks might be Evgeny Dadonov. He picked up seven points in seven contests for the third-placed Russian team at the World Junior Championships this past Christmas, so that situation could bear some watching.

 

Last year's pre-season top-six:

 

Booth, Weiss, Horton, Stillman, Reinprecht, and Frolik.

 

End of year finish:

 

Weiss	60
Horton	57
Frolik	43
Reinprecht	38
Stillman	37
Dvorak	32

 

Montreal- Top-five locked, faces little competition from bottom-six

 

Top Six

Mike Cammalleri – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

Benoit Pouliot – Tomas Plekanec – Andrei Kostitsyn

 

Cavalry

Lars Eller

 

Bottom Feeders

Travis Moen, Maxim Lapierre, Dustin Boyd, Mathieu Darche and Tom Pyatt.

 

Montreal's Cinderella run certainly created plenty of hype for Hab fans this spring. They'll pretty much return the same top-five that they had during the post-season. Size wasn't a factor during the playoffs as the top-line of Cammalleri, Gomez and Gionta were brilliant, so expect much of the same from the trio this campaign. Plekanec and Kostitsyn provide for a great supporting cast. Plekanec used his contract year to his full advantage and translated that into a six-year, $30 mil deal. I'd be wary of his motivation to repeat that performance heading into 2010-11.

 

The Habs management weren't happy about the younger Kostitsyn's approach to hockey, so they shipped him off to Nashville for essentially a bucket of pucks. I don't know how much of the negative influence actually rubbed off on Andrei, but a drop off from 53 to 41 to 33 certainly wasn't ideal for the young Belarusian. I'd look for him to get back towards the 45-point mark this season. Pouliot had a career resurrection after being traded from the Wild to the Habs last November as he tallied 24 points in 39 contests during the regular season, but it's the two in 18 during the post-season that really scares me. Eller could certainly be a dark horse candidate to assume a top-six role in Montreal if Pouliot fails.

 

Last year's pre-season top-six:

 

Cammalleri, Gomez, Gionta, A. Kostitsyn, Plekanec, and Sergei Kostistyn.

 

End of year finish:

 

Plekanec	70
Gomez	59
Cammalleri	50
Gionta	46
A. Kostitsyn	33
Metropolit	29

 

Next week: the New York trio of Devils, Rangers, and Islanders.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I'll be ready and willing to discuss them in the comments section below.