Looking Ahead – Week 15
Dave Poleck
2011-01-14
Just like in weeks five and 10, I will be giving an analysis on team's defensive tendencies at home versus on the road.
Just as a refresher, the last two columns in the chart below represent the difference between home and away goals against; so the Penguins have allowed 0.53 more goals per game at home than they have allowed on the road. This has been updated after Thursday night's games.
Week five started with a half-and-half split between teams that were more efficient defensively at home versus on the road; Week 10 saw that number grow to only 10 teams that were more efficient on the road. The evidence this time around shows that only eight teams allow more goals at home than they do on the road.
Last month's champions, the Kings, have closed the gap between goals against on the road versus at home, but that is mainly because their home ice dominance has gone out the window this past month.
The two standouts this month are the Tampa Bay Lightning and St.Louis Blues, who are allowing 1.54 and 1.42 more goals against respectfully on the road than they are at home. While the Lightning have somehow played eight more games on the road so far, the Blues have only played three more yet have allowed 21 more goals. Either way, no other teams even come close to that difference (Atlanta's difference is only 0.75).
Here are two freakishly low numbers to take advantage of now before they even out. The Preds are only allowing 2.00 goals against in 19 home games, which is 0.54 than their average in 24 games on the road. Key point there is that they currently have to make up five home games. That number will shrink to four after Saturday when they host Chicago, but then will grow to a stunning 10 game difference after their six game road trip next week. Next week might be the time to trade for Pekka Rinne.
On the other side, Pittsburgh is allowing 2.05 goals against in 21 road games, but have allowed 62 goals in 24 games (2.58) at the brand new Consol Energy Center.
HOME | ROAD | |||||||||
Games | GA | Games | GA | |||||||
Phi | 21 | 56 | 2.67 | 22 | 57 | 2.59 | 0.08 | Home | ||
Pit | 24 | 62 | 2.58 | 21 | 43 | 2.05 | 0.53 | Home | ||
NJ | 22 | 66 | 3.00 | 20 | 66 | 3.30 | 0.3 | Road | ||
NYR | 22 | 52 | 2.36 | 23 | 56 | 2.43 | 0.07 | Road | ||
NYI | 19 | 58 | 3.05 | 23 | 78 | 3.39 | 0.34 | Road | ||
Bos | 21 | 42 | 2.00 | 22 | 51 | 2.32 | 0.32 | Road | ||
Buf | 22 | 65 | 2.95 | 21 | 61 | 2.90 | 0.05 | Home | ||
Mon | 23 | 54 | 2.35 | 21 | 51 | 2.43 | 0.08 | Road | ||
Ott | 23 | 63 | 2.74 | 21 | 71 | 3.38 | 0.64 | Road | ||
Tor | 22 | 62 | 2.82 | 21 | 66 | 3.14 | 0.32 | Road | ||
Atl | 22 | 58 | 2.64 | 23 | 78 | 3.39 | 0.75 | Road | ||
Car | 19 | 53 | 2.79 | 24 | 74 | 3.08 | 0.29 | Road | ||
Fla | 20 | 53 | 2.65 | 22 | 57 | 2.59 | 0.06 | Home | ||
TB | 18 | 42 | 2.33 | 26 | 93 | 3.58 | 1.54 | Road | ||
Wash | 24 | 56 | 2.33 | 20 | 57 | 2.85 | 0.52 | Road | ||
Chi | 26 | 67 | 2.58 | 19 | 56 | 2.95 | 0.37 | Road | ||
CBJ | 22 | 62 | 2.82 | 21 | 71 | 3.38 | 0.56 | Road | ||
Det | 22 | 66 | 3.00 | 21 | 56 | 2.67 | 0.33 | Home | ||
Nas | 19 | 38 | 2.00 | 24 | 61 | 2.54 | 0.54 | Road | ||
StL | 23 | 49 | 2.13 | 20 | 71 | 3.55 | 1.42 | Road | ||
Cal | 20 | 60 | 3.00 | 23 | 65 | 2.83 | 0.17 | Home | ||
Col | 23 | 74 | 3.22 | 21 | 68 | 3.24 | 0.02 | Road | ||
Edm | 21 | 63 | 3.00 | 21 | 74 | 3.52 | 0.52 | Road | ||
Min | 22 | 62 | 2.82 | 21 | 57 | 2.71 | 0.11 | Home | ||
Van | 21 | 46 | 2.19 | 22 | 54 | 2.45 | 0.36 | Road | ||
Ana | 24 | 58 | 2.42 | 22 | 67 | 3.05 | 0.63 | Road | ||
Dal | 23 | 58 | 2.52 | 21 | 57 | 2.71 | 0.19 | Road | ||
LAK | 23 | 54 | 2.35 | 20 | 57 | 2.85 | 0.5 | Road | ||
Pho | 19 | 50 | 2.63 | 25 | 71 | 2.84 | 0.21 | Road | ||
SJ | 23 | 65 | 2.83 | 22 | 61 | 2.77 | 0.06 | Home |
A tough decision can be made easier with these charts showing you the best five and worst five schedules for upcoming seven-day periods. Some of you used them last year but for the benefit of new readers here is a refresher. The number next to the team indicates the ‘multiplier’ to use on a player’s point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week.
This week's Wednesday to Tuesday schedule features a pair of rare five game weeks for the Rangers and Leafs, which begins with the two teams facing off on Wednesday night. Both teams have a heavy dosage of Southeastern teams coming up in that week, so be sure to check out the chart above for how those teams differ at home versus on the road. The Rangers play in Washington during that week, where the Caps have been allowing 2.33 goals per game in 24 games, while the Caps will play on the road in Toronto later in the week, where they have averaged 2.85 goals in only 20 games.
As I mentioned above, the Lightning have played eight more games on the road (13-10-3) than they have at home (13-3-2). This is as of January 14. After next Friday, January 21, that difference will be up to nine games. By February 26, they will have played two more HOME games than road games. You read that right. So between January 23 and February 25, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be on a 12 game home stand.
Friday January 14 to Thursday January 20, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.49 – @PHX, EDM, @OTT, @TOR | ||||||
New Jersey 4.32 – @TB, @FLA, @NYI, PIT | ||||||
Columbus 4.27 – DET, @DET, @TB, @FLA | ||||||
Calgary 4.23 – @OTT, @TOR, @MON, MIN | ||||||
Minnesota 4.23 – COL, VAN, @EDM, @CGY | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Chicago 1.80 – @NAS, NAS | ||||||
Colorado 2.76 – @MIN, VAN, BAS | ||||||
Toronto 2.88 – CGY, @NYR, ANA | ||||||
Montreal 2.89 – NYR, CGY, @BUF | ||||||
St. Louis – 2.89 – @SJ, LA, DET | ||||||
Saturday January 15 to Friday January 21, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.49 – @PHX, EDM, @OTT, @TOR | ||||||
Tampa Bay 4.25 – @CAR, CBJ, @ATL, @FLA | ||||||
Los Angeles 4.21 – EDM, @DAL, @STL, PHX | ||||||
Nashville 4.21 – NAS, @CHI, @PHX, @COL | ||||||
Dallas 4.17 – ATL, LA, @EDM, @CAL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Colorado 1.71 – VAN, NAS | ||||||
Chicago 1.80 – @NAS, NAS | ||||||
Toronto 2.88 – CGY, @NYR, ANA | ||||||
St. Louis 2.89 – @SJ, LA, DET | ||||||
Philadelphia 2.90 – @NYR, WAS, OTT | ||||||
Sunday January 16 to Saturday January 22, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Anaheim 4.44 – EDM, @OTT, @TOR, @MON | ||||||
Washington 4.31 – OTT, @PHI, @NYI, @TOR | ||||||
Minnesota 4.24 – VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @SJ | ||||||
Vancounver 4.11 – @MIN, @COL, SJ, CGY | ||||||
Boston 4.11 – CAR, @CAR, BUF, @COL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Chicago 1.91- NAS, @DET | ||||||
Colorado 2.47 – VAN, NAS, BOS | ||||||
Buffalo 2.82 – MON, @BOS, NYI | ||||||
Toronto 2.88 – @NYR, ANA, WAS | ||||||
St. Louis 2.89 – LA, DET, CBJ | ||||||
Monday January 17 to Sunday January 23, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Atlanta 4.22 – @FLA, TB, NYR, @TB | ||||||
Florida 4.21 – ATL, CBJ, TB, @NJ | ||||||
Tampa Bay 4.11 – CBJ, @ATL, @FLA, ATL | ||||||
Boston 4.11 – CAR, @CAR, BUF, @COL | ||||||
Los Angeles 4.10 – @DAL, @STL, PHX, @PHX | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Chicago 1.91- NAS, @DET | ||||||
Colorado 2.47 – VAN, NAS, BOS | ||||||
Edmonton 2.76 – MIN, DAL, NAS | ||||||
Ottawa 2.80 – ANA, @PHI, MON | ||||||
Toronto 2.88 – @NYR, ANA, WAS | ||||||
Tuesday January 18 to Monday January 24, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Nashville 4.54 – @PHX, @COL, @EDM, @CGY | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.24 – TOR, @CAR, @ATL, @WAS | ||||||
Washington 4.23 – @PHI, @NYI, @TOR, NYR | ||||||
Boston 4.14 – @CAR, BUF, @COL, @LA | ||||||
Tampa Bay 4.11 – CBJ, @ATL, @FLA, ATL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
San Jose 1.90 – @VAN, MIN | ||||||
Chicago 1.91 – @DET, PHI | ||||||
Phoenix 2.74 – NAS, @LA, LA | ||||||
Edmonton 2.76 – MIN, DAL, NAS | ||||||
New Jersey 2.80 – PIT, @PHI, FLA | ||||||
Wednesday January 19 to Tuesday January 25, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
NY Rangers 5.23 – TOR, @CAR, @ATL, @WAS, FLA | ||||||
Toronto 5.11 – @NYR, ANA, WAS, @CAR, @TB | ||||||
Florida 4.21 – ATL, CBJ, TB, @NJ | ||||||
Tampa Bay 4.19 – @ATL, @FLA, ATL, TOR | ||||||
Buffalo 4.18 – @BOS, NYI, @NYI, @OTT | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
San Jose 1.90 – @VAN, MIN | ||||||
Detroit 2.00 – @STL, CHI | ||||||
Colorado 2.57 – NAS, BOS, STL | ||||||
Los Angeles 2.76 – PHX, @PHX, BOS | ||||||
New Jersey 2.80 – PIT, @PHI, FLA | ||||||
Thursday January 20 to Wednesday January 26, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
NY Islanders 4.83 – WAS, @BUF, BUF, @PIT, CAR | ||||||
Dallas 4.43 – @EDM, @CGY, @VAN, EDM | ||||||
Nashville 4.43 – @COL, @EDM, @CGY, @VAN | ||||||
Washington 4.33 – @NYI, @TOR, NYR, @ATL | ||||||
St. Louis 4.20 – DET, CBJ, @COL, @CGY | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Columbus 2.00 – @STL, ANA | ||||||
Minnesota 2.10 – @SJ, @CHI | ||||||
Ottawa 2.80 – @PHI, MON, BUF | ||||||
Chicago 2.86 – @DET, PHI, MIN | ||||||
San Jose 2.88 – @VAN, MIN, @LA | ||||||
Friday January 21 to Thursday January 27, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Florida 4.04 – TB, @NJ, @NYR, @BOS | ||||||
NY Islanders 3.90 – @BUF, BUF, @PIT, CAR | ||||||
Calgary 3.70 – DAL, @VAN, NAS, STL | ||||||
Buffalo 3.34 – NYI, @NYI, @OTT | ||||||
Nashville 3.28 – @EDM, @CGY, @VAN | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Ottawa 1.86 – MON, BUF | ||||||
San Jose 1.94 – MIN, @LA | ||||||
Detroit 2.00 – CHI, NJ | ||||||
Columbus 2.00 – @STL, ANA | ||||||
Pittsburgh 2.03 – CAR, NYI | ||||||
Saturday January 22 to Friday January 28, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Nashville 3.28 – @EDM, @CGY, @VAN | ||||||
St. Louis 3.25 – CBJ, @COL, @CGY | ||||||
Carolina 3.22 – @PIT, TOR, @NYI | ||||||
Phoenix 3.21 – LA, EDM, @COL | ||||||
Toronto 3.17 – WAS, @CAR, @TB | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Ottawa 0.95 – BUF | ||||||
Montreal 1.90 – ANA, @PHI | ||||||
San Jose 1.94 – MIN, @LA | ||||||
Detroit 2.00 – CHI, NJ | ||||||
Columbus 2.00 – @STL, ANA | ||||||
Sunday January 23 to Saturday January 29, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Nashville 3.28 – @EDM, @CGY, @VAN | ||||||
Florida 2.98 – @NJ, @NYR, @BOS | ||||||
Edmonton 2.96 – NAS, @PHX, @DAL | ||||||
NY Islanders 2.85 – @BUF, PIT, @CAR | ||||||
Phoenix 2.31 – EDM, @COL | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Montreal 0.95 – @PHI | ||||||
Columbus 0.95 – ANA | ||||||
Ottawa 0.95 – BUF | ||||||
San Jose 0.99 – @LA | ||||||
Detroit 1.05 – NJ |