Looking Ahead – Week 15

Dave Poleck

2011-01-14

Janssen

 

Just like in weeks five and 10, I will be giving an analysis on team's defensive tendencies at home versus on the road.

 

Just as a refresher, the last two columns in the chart below represent the difference between home and away goals against; so the Penguins have allowed 0.53 more goals per game at home than they have allowed on the road. This has been updated after Thursday night's games.

 

Week five started with a half-and-half split between teams that were more efficient defensively at home versus on the road; Week 10 saw that number grow to only 10 teams that were more efficient on the road. The evidence this time around shows that only eight teams allow more goals at home than they do on the road.

 

Last month's champions, the Kings, have closed the gap between goals against on the road versus at home, but that is mainly because their home ice dominance has gone out the window this past month.

 

The two standouts this month are the Tampa Bay Lightning and St.Louis Blues, who are allowing 1.54 and 1.42 more goals against respectfully on the road than they are at home. While the Lightning have somehow played eight more games on the road so far, the Blues have only played three more yet have allowed 21 more goals. Either way, no other teams even come close to that difference (Atlanta's difference is only 0.75).

 

Here are two freakishly low numbers to take advantage of now before they even out. The Preds are only allowing 2.00 goals against in 19 home games, which is 0.54 than their average in 24 games on the road. Key point there is that they currently have to make up five home games. That number will shrink to four after Saturday when they host Chicago, but then will grow to a stunning 10 game difference after their six game road trip next week. Next week might be the time to trade for Pekka Rinne.

 

On the other side, Pittsburgh is allowing 2.05 goals against in 21 road games, but have allowed 62 goals in 24 games (2.58) at the brand new Consol Energy Center.

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