Projections, Projections, We All Love Our Projections (2011)

Ryan Ma

2011-05-17

St. Louis

 

Back this week with a ripper of an article. At the end of the last couple of seasons I wrote similar columns which were generally very well received by my fellow Dobberites, so I figured I'd go back to the well once again. It's a great add-on to give you a decent recap of what went on this past fantasy season as well as what to expect for the upcoming season especially if you are trying to get a head start on your competition.

 

First, let’s clear up some general misconceptions about projections:

 

Ma's 13 guidelines for making projections:

 

1) First of all, we need to place a realistic value on overall point production.

 

Year

Number of point-per-game players

Number of players > than 80 points

2007-08

23

19

2008-09

20

17

2009-10

21

17

2010-11

15

9

 

  • Just by looking at the table above, realistically there's only 15 to 20 or so players that will finish at a point-per-game pace. In the past, we saw much more 80+ point producers, but this year we had a massive drop off of nearly half. What you need to keep in mind is that in a standard 12-team league, that's roughly one, maybe two, per team. If you're expecting three or four, you either have one hell of a team or you're definitely dreaming.
  • Also what you