Perry vs. the World

steve laidlaw

2011-08-31

Perry

 

I am starting to notice a trend forming here at DobberHockey. And whenever I see that I immediately backpedal to take stock of the situation and prepare to take advantage of it. Many of the experts, myself included (feel free to debate the validity of my expert status another time) have Corey Perry pegged for a fall. There is a lot of evidence for this assertion but it is very important to consider just how to use that to your advantage. That’s why this week’s Cage Match is not your typical Cage Match. It is not player vs. player. Instead it is Corey Perry against the World, because that is what it is starting to feel like.

 

Here’s my bit on Perry from the Dobberhockey Fantasy Guide:

 

Perry has so much going for him it seems foolish to put him on this list, but he will go as high as first overall in some fantasy drafts and I worry about that. I worry that Selanne cannot repeat the magic. I worry that Getzlaf is becoming injury prone. I worry that Fowler will have a sophomore slump. I worry that Visnovsky will not stay healthy. I worry that Perry's 17.2% shooting was well above his norm. I worry that only half of all players to score 50 goals in a season follow up that season by scoring even 40 goals the following season.

 

Clearly I have my doubts about Perry repeating his magical 2010-11 season. Meanwhile, Ryan Ma is projecting a similar decline in his Not With a 10-Foot Pole column and Jeff Angus is Fearlessly Forecasting that Perry will score less than 40 goals this season. That’s three Dobberhockey writers making some very serious criticisms of Perry. Assuming you buy those criticisms how can you apply that information?

 

Context is key. You’ll note that I did not actually make any projections for Perry in my piece but rather just indicated he is due for a decline. Allow me to rectify that now with a ranged projection. I feel that Perry is good for somewhere between 35-40 goals and 80-90 points. To further frame this for you allow me to elaborate.

 

Perry registered 48 and 49 assists in the last two seasons respectively so I am basically conceding that he is good for around 50 assists but no higher. Meanwhile I am lowering his goal total for all the reasons outlined earlier.

 

So you’ve got your projection, now what do you do with it? I think that first you should question whether you agree with it. I reviewed the projected stats of four different fantasy guides (including Dobberhockey’s own) and found their projections to be more optimistic about Perry’s production this season. The average of those projections worked out to be 44 goals and 93 points with no guide projecting lower than 41 goals or higher than 46. The low and high for assists were 47 and 50. Essentially these guides are putting a lot more stock in Perry’s production last season. It is worth noting that much like I did, these guides are booking Perry for around 50 assists. It really does seem to be a good bet.

 

Now also consider that Perry exists outside the world of fantasy hockey and all the statistical analyses that go with it. He is all about winning and a big part of how he goes about that is scoring.  He has made a wonderful career for himself by proving people wrong. Questionable skating led to him slipping in his draft year but he has now become the preeminent power forward in the NHL. Tasting a little success like winning the MVP trophy will not change Perry because he is simply driven to succeed. He will keep o