April 01 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-04-01

The DobberBaseball Fantasy Guide is fully updated through today – and DobberBaseball broke a traffic record for March, topping 230,000 page views. Great work by Fred Poulin and Eamonn McCauley, who have really turned that site around with a great team – and of course Chris Goudey, who put together an awesome guide and stayed on top of it with updates.

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Some great feedback on my Kessel musing…

My favorite, and the one that says it all – Jeff Angus’ and “HabsGuy” note that it was improper asset management, burning up cap space unnecessarily. And that’s what trumps all arguments that Kessel’s impressive numbers to date are enough to give the Leafs any kind of win here.

My least favorite argument – the Cup argument. Because I feel that the Bruins would have won the Cup with or without that trade happening.

My conclusion: If Toronto were to win the Cup this year and Kessel was either the Conn Smythe winner, or the runner up – then and only then could the Leafs even be considered as having pulled off an ‘even’ swap in this deal.

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Some Flyers news – Max Talbot suffered a broken leg. And the Ryane Clowe to Philadelphia rumors are reaching a climax. Stay tuned…

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I don’t know if Cam Atkinson‘s ankle is back to 100 percent, but he’s playing much better hockey – he’s back to being the best offensive player on the Jackets. This is what I saw in him before the season. Hell, it’s what I saw in him two years ago when he turned pro. I’m thrilled to have him in two keeper leagues and can’t wait to see what a full, healthy season will bring. He has five points in his last five games and is seeing about 17 minutes per game nowadays.

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My patience has been paying off this season. Generally, I struggle with patience – as most of us hardcore fantasy owners do – because I’m so involved. If I see what a player is doing day in and day out, what seems like ‘sucking forever’ is really just a minor one-week slump. So I’ve been focusing on not trading guys in my keeper league, and just relaxing. Trust in my drafting. You can imagine how difficult that is when I drafted Atkinson, Jonas Brodin, and even Nikita Nikitin – who has points in three straight now and five of his last seven.

But most of all – it was getting Michael Frolik for next to nothing last summer in two leagues. In the shallower league, I was forced to drop him at the draft. But in the deeper league I hung in there. And just when I had reached the end of my rope – he gets placed on the top line in Chicago. The result has been four points in four games, but he’s looked very good doing it.

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And while Frolik basks in his production on the top line, there must of course be a casualty. Viktor Stalberg has been pointless in those four games.

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Sidney Crosby is out for the season. He may be back for the final three of four games, but a broken jaw causes you to lose a ton of wait eating through a straw. If he can play five more games, he can win the scoring title, but I don’t think he can do it at three games.

Imagine this – Steven Stamkos gets hurt for the season… and Chris Kunitz wins the scoring title. Put fifty bucks on that in January and you’d be a rich man if it came to pass!

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I don’t think the Penguins were meant to have Jarome Iginla. You know I’m a Pens fan, and who doesn’t like Iginla? But when I saw the deal go down, I didn’t pump my fist. I worry for the chemistry. I worry for the hockey gods (who struck, as you saw, on Saturday). And frankly, I was happy with Beau Bennett. It’s hard to explain a team getting worse with Iginla. It’s insane, the very notion. But something in the back of my head is bothering me about it. This was ‘the’ Cup favorite already, why mess with that? I thought Murray and Morrow were the missing pieces. It’s probably nothing. Just wanted to ramble.

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Also, don’t know if you caught this late-breaking trade last night, I didn’t catch it myself until very late (close to 2am, my time). I’m gonna hit the sack, but will come back with a full analysis tomorrow before noon.

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Shawn Matthias has five goals in his last three games and has put himself in contention for the Cy Young – 14 goals and three assists on the year. He just turned 25. Next year looks like 30-20-50 is doable, what say you?

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I believe that Toronto lost the Phil Kessel for Tyler Seguin/ Dougie Hamilton trade. I’m not in the minority there. Everyone believes that Toronto got their asses kicked in that deal in which they landed Kessel and gave up three high draft picks.

Now. That being said. Let’s compare, year over year:

2009-10 – Leafs win the deal. I mean…Kessel scored 30 goals, whereas Seguin was but a twinkle in Boston’s eye. Right now, all Boston has are draft picks.

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2010-11 – Leafs win the deal. Kessel scores 32 goals, 64 points, while Seguin makes the Bruins as a rookie. Seguin looks great for the future, but the end result is – he’s not there yet. Hamilton is but a twinkle in Boston’s eye (still a nameless draft pick)

2011-12 – Leafs win the deal. Kessel is eighth in scoring with 37 goals and 82 points. Kudos to Seguin for breaking out and posting 67 points, while Hamilton is an elite prospect. But results, at this point, say that Kessel still takes it.

2012-13 – In progress. Kessel has 34 points, Seguin has 25 and Hamilton has made a huge impression with 14 points. If Kessel were to get 45 points this year and keep the plus/minus around even, while Seguin gets say 35 points and is plus-20…and Hamilton gets 19 points. Who wins? If you give it to the Leafs, then what does that say? If two teams make a trade and Team A wins that deal in Years 1-4, while the Team  B wins the trade in Years 5-9, can you really say that Team A “got their asses kicked”?

Just a different way to think about it. We’re so used to assuming that the deal sucked, I don’t think any of us really take a closer look.

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After getting Nicklas Jensen back across the pond, the Canucks have recalled him and are apparently going to try him with the Sedin twins. Unexpected, seeing a rookie get thrown into the fire like that – speaks volumes about the Canucks’ regard for him. Needless to say, worth watching. Worth grabbing, too, if you need a winger. Should be owned in most keeper leagues.

Zach Kassian was sent down. If you wonder why I keep players on my Prospects List a little longer than you would – this is why. I don’t remove him until I’m sure he won’t be demoted. Jensen is ranked 37th while Kassian is ranked 17th as of the last update – but today I wouldn’t hesitate to swap their spots.

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Why was Marcus Johansson so easy to get off the waiver wire? Wake up! He has 10 points in his last nine games and is plus-4 in that span. Two more points yesterday. At this point, your league should have caught onto the trend and he should be scooped up. I can’t believe I got him Sunday morning.

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Damien Brunner has five points in his last 15 games and is minus-6 in that span. He’ll build on this experience next year and will probably last a little longer with his hot start. Getting used to a new league. Mike Babcock loves how often he shoots the puck.

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Jeremy Morin was recalled by the Hawks and scored his first NHL goal in two years.

With three points Sunday, Brandon Saad pulls within six of the rookie scoring lead. Huberdeau leads with 25, followed by Conacher (24) and Gallagher (20).

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Since being a healthy scratch, Alex Goligoski has 16 points in 23 games. Before that, three points in 10 games.

The Kings held Dallas to 15 shots. Embarrassing.

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Matt Read has points in three straight games. Clearly just needed to get his rhythm again after returning quickly from the chest/ribs injury.

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Joffrey Lupul – suddenly a superstar. I’m not kidding, he’s been an elite player since returning:

 

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