Campkin takes an in-depth look at Derek Stepan… and why he’s kicking ass

At the beginning of this shortened season, I wrote a piece on Mike Ribeiro and outlined how he was a guy that I targeted in my keeper league because my team (The Campkin Cartel) needed a center and was short on assists, powerplay points and hits. Needless to say Ribeiro has been a homerun for my team, but there is actually another center who I drafted early that is doing even more for the Cartel, so I decided to make him the latest Geek of the Week: Derek Stepan.

Stepan is a guy who I knew I had to target early since he's a young player with upside on a (presumably) good team. In our league setup, Stepan was a borderline keeper last season; he would have been a great keep on one of the lower teams but a top team wouldn't have had the space to hold on to him. When he was dropped into the pool, you knew he was going to be a top pick in the draft. I had some concerns regarding his playing time (specifically his powerplay time) due to the addition of Nash but I liked that he satisfied my positional and category needs and also had some upside to boot. Before the draft, I ran a modified version of our league through Fantasy Hockey Geek to identify guys who contributed well to my needs (As, PPPs & hits from a centre). I entered these parameters into FHG and here is what came back:

(Yahoo! league using only Cs, counting A, PPP, hits and using stats from the 2011-12 season)

From the above chart, you can see that even going into the season, Stepan was the 18^th most valuable C for the categories my team needed. Of the top 18, the only two other guys that were available were the aforementioned Ribeiro and Martin Hanzal who I also drafted.

Derek Stepan was my top skater target going into the draft and I was thrilled to get him. Fast-forward to this season and not only is he providing me value in the categories that I targeted him for, but he is actually providing me value everywhere else as well. To a very large degree, the settings of our keeper league are designed exactly for a player like Stepan. Let's take a look at the value he is giving me this season.

(12 team Yahoo! H2H league counting G,A,+/-,PPP, SHP,GWG,SOG,Hits)

From the above, you can see that Stepan has actually been the 5^th most valuable skater in our keeper league this season (just above a previous Geek of the Week, PK Subban).

Before you spit your coffee all over your computer at the sight of Stepan being valued so high, allow me to point out the major reason why. Our league counts SHP as a category and this significantly skews Stepan's value. SHPs are by far the rarest of our 8 measured categories, to the point where when a player gets you one, you will probably win that category for the week. Stepan's 3 SHPs therefore have single handedly won me that category three times this season leading to six points directly in the standings. By contrast, you would need about 12-15 PPPs or 20-25As to win either of those categories on a given week so you can see just how valuable one SHP can be in our league. Unique league settings like this are why I always harp on the fact that understanding your league is so critical.

Our keeper league is probably unique in that it includes SHP, so let's take a look at Stepan's value in a more common league setting – the Dobber Pro League.

(12 team league counting G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits)

From the above chart you can see that in this league, Stepan is more reasonably valued as the 52^nd best skater which is still tremendous value considering he is only 56% owned in Yahoo! pools and had an average draft position (ADP) in the 15^th round! Brad Richards had an ADP in the 5^th round and I wouldn't even consider acquiring him straight up for Stepan.

Stepan's value stems from his ability to contribute to all categories. Even if your league doesn't include SHP as mine does, Stepan is money in the bank across all other common categories outside of maybe PIMs (he has 12 this season). The Rangers seem to be favoring Stepan over Richards now and Derek always has great line mates and sees plenty of PP time so I expect his production to continue (if not grow) over the coming seasons and the remainder of the current season. He has 18 points in 17 games since the beginning of March, five of his PPP have come in that time and he is averaging over two shots and one hit per game as well. He is accomplishing all of this while the Rangers as a team are falling below expectations.

Derek Stepan is a great example of the type of guys that I always like to target. With the help of FHG, I identify guys that are providing me the value I need now, with the upside to help me even more down the road. This has panned out perfectly for me this season and he will be a keeper on my team now for years to come. I'm currently in the middle of a very competitive playoff run in this keeper league and I am going to be relying very heavily on Stepan to help bring me home the cup (I could really use one of those shorties right about now). If you happen to be on a playoff run in one of the 44% of leagues where this guy is still out there – scoop him up now! Fantasy Hockey Geek is a great resource to find guys who satisfy some specific needs of your own and with some research and a bit of good luck maybe you can find a breakout guy like Stepan as I did.

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