7 Playoff Duds

Rick Roos

2013-06-17

TylerSeguin

 

Seven Playoff Duds – Time to Worry?

Fantasy hockey veterans know that players who do great in the playoffs – or the preseason – often don’t match (let alone build on) that success in the regular season, which is when their stats really count for most fantasy hockey leagues. But what about guys who do poorly in the playoffs? Should that be a concern for poolies going into the 2013-14 regular season?

With that question in mind, I’ll cover seven players who performed (or are performing) well below their regular season production in the 2012-13 playoffs. For a “Final Verdict”, I'll give a prediction on whether each player's 2013-14 performance will be more like what he did during the 2012-13 regular season, more like what he did in the 2012-13 playoffs, or somewhere in between.

 

Note that I’ve focused the list mostly on guys who skated for more than five playoff games, to ensure a decent sample size. I also didn't include players (like Dustin Brown or Niklas Kronwall), where it has since become clear that their poor playoff performance was due in large part to injury.

Andrew Cogliano (Regular Season = 23 points in 48 games; Playoffs = one point in seven games)

Cogliano's breakout regular season, which included 13 goals (more than either Bobby Ryan or Teemu Selanne), hit a brick wall during the playoffs. This happened despite his ice time (almost no PP time and just over 15:00 TOI in both the regular season and playoffs) and linemates (44% with Saku Koivu and Daniel Winnik during the regular season, over 60% during the playoffs, according to Frozen Pool) remaining pretty much unchanged. Honestly, I think his slump during the playoffs was a case of young player nerves, especially considering that many of his teammates were either around for the Ducks Stanley Cup win or at least had a taste of previous playoff experience, unlike Cogliano who was a true NHL postseason newbie.

Final Verdict: I see Cogliano as a player on the rise who should have no trouble doing even better in 2013-14 than he did during the 2012-13 regular season. And with that you should safely consider his playoff performance just a blip on the radar, unless you want to try to use it to your advantage to help grab him in a trade from an owner who might be growing concerned at this point.

 

Tyler Seguin (Regular Season = 32 points in 48 games; Playoffs through finals game 2 = six points in 18 games)

While it's possible that Seguin will continue to right his ship somewhat by the end of the Cup finals (he's already produced two points in the first two games), there's almost no way he'll do well enough to be able look back and see this postseason as anything but a huge personal disappointment. Not only was Seguin displaced from the Boston top six by Jaromir Jagr, but he wasn't the catalyst for the third line that Boston had hoped. Unlike with Cogliano, this can't be chalked up to growing pains, as Seguin was part of the Bruins Cup winning team from 2011. And keep in mind that Seguin had limped to the finish line at the end of the regular season too, with a mere six points in his final 15 games.

Final Verdict: Seguin is too good a player to be sitting at 12 points in his last 33 games, and I wouldn't