Selling high is a great theory, but how can you apply it to your hockey pool?
Selling high and buying low is an incredibly successful strategy in any business. And it is no different in fantasy hockey. At the end of the day, it is all about numbers and statistics, and shrewd poolies should always be looking for ways to maximize the return on assets they own, as well as to pick up undervalued assets on the cheap.
But selling high isn't easy. If it was, there wouldn't be such a thing as selling high. It would simply be trading an asset for an equal asset. The market would take care of any inefficiency. But we grow attached to players. We watch them develop as prospects. We may think their upside is higher than what they have currently shown. And after a breakout year, why would we expect a certain player to regress in terms of production? Projecting a decline in production for a player is difficult to do without any concrete reasons or data behind it. Thankfully we have some terrific resources to help along the way (Behind the Net, Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Abstract, and so on).
There are a few factors to pay close attention to. Sometimes you can get burned on moving an asset you feel may be overvalued (like I did with Steven Stamkos a few years ago…). But in the long run, it is a sound strategy to use historical data and statistics to figure out which players are more likely to regress.
Today we are going to take a look at a few players you may be smart to "sell high" on this summer.
The hulking pivot (6-4, 220 pounds) finally showed signs of reaching his potential last season with 17 goals in 48 games – by far his best per-game offensive production in the NHL. After recording 47 points as a rookie in 2008-09, Berglund has been teasing poolies with his size/skill package. However, he has broken the 50-point mark only once in five seasons since then.
Berglund did have 17 goals last season, but on only 74 shots on goal. I'm not a psychic, but repeating a near-30% scoring rate is going to be pretty much impossible.
I'm not a fan of drafting St. Louis forwards (with a few exceptions). There is so much depth up front and the team plays such a strong defensive game – it makes it hard for one or two forwards to stand out. Berglund broke out last year, but unless he starts shooting the puck a lot more this season, it may be the time to cash in on his break out and future upside/potential.
There aren't many players that combine size and skill as well as Berglund, and that is what would make selling high on him so difficult. And he recently signed a one-year contract, so you know he has a lot of motivation to prove to the Blues that he is worth big bucks over the long term.
A breakout performance on Carolina's top line – why would it make sense to move Tlusty now? Let's see – 23 goals on 117 shots (19.7% scoring rate). And Tlusty does have two very talented linemate