Hits

Blocked Shots

PIMs

Shots

2012-13

+1 (Hedman)

+11 (Carlson)

56 (Hedman)

59 (Carlson)

84 (Hedman)

123 (Carlson)

31 (Hedman)

18 (Carlson)

76 (Hedman)

97 (Carlson)

2011-12

-9 (Hedman)

-15 (Carlson)

96 (Hedman)

83 (Carlson)

127 (Hedman)

153 (Carlson)

65 (Hedman)

22 (Carlson)

82 (Hedman)

152 (Carlson)

2010-11

+3 (Hedman)

+21 (Carlson)

54 (Hedman)

70 (Carlson)

85 (Hedman)

160 (Carlson)

70 (Hedman)

44 (Carlson)

101 (Hedman)

144 (Carlson)

What's interesting is that three of these categories have clear winners, with Hedman having many more PIMs than Carlson each season (but neither player is penalized very much) and Carlson having many more Blocked Shots (50% more one season; nearly double in another) and more Shots (nearly double in one season) than Hedman. And it's also worth noting that Carlson's stats in these two secondary categories were huge (3^rd in the NHL in Blocked Shots in 2012-13; 11^th among defensemen in Shots). Plus/minus was back and forth, with Carlson oddly being either better than +10 or worse than -10, and Hits was close enough that we should expect it to remain basically a wash. Overall, Carlson holds an edge in more categories, and it's a valuable edge since he's among the elite in those categories.

Value vs. Cost

Up to this point we've seen that Hedman and Carlson have pretty comparable overall value, so one important thing to do as part of this analysis is compare each player's value in relation to the cost it would take to get him, whether by trade or in a draft. And the reality is that Carlson will likely cost you more to obtain than Hedman. This is mainly because Carlson plays for Washington, and many folks think that based on what Mike Green has done Carlson might do the same (or close to it). Plus, Carlson is essentially heading into his "magical fourth year", and that might entice some poolies. Also, despite Hedman's points pace actually trending upward, he still hasn't scored more than 26 points in a season, and people will focus on that, even more so because it seems quite disappointing for a former #2 overall pick. When it comes to value versus cost, I give an edge to Hedman.

So Who Wins?

Doing this Cage Match reminded me why I feel sympathy for people who own guys like John Carlson in fantasy leagues. When you look at his ice time in particular, it's clear that he has so much value to his team as a shutdown defenseman that it's actually holding back his offense. But can you blame the Capitals? They already have plenty of offensive production, including Mike Green from the blueline (and perhaps Dmitri Orlov if he ever develops), so they're glad to use Carlson in a role where he's counted upon primarily to prevent the opposition's goals rather than helping his own team score.

And while it's not like Hedman is being groomed by Tampa Bay to be the next Erik Karlsson, it does appear that the team is becoming more comfortable giving him additional opportunities to contribute on the score sheet. And Hedman has responded by slowly but steadily increasing his point scoring pace in each of the last three seasons.

In the end, I think the edge goes to Hedman, mainly based on value versus cost, upward trending in points scoring, and concerns about the Mike Green effect on Carlson. But that edge is not too large, which means it could just as easily tilt toward Carlson if, for example, your league emphasizes secondary categories in the areas (Shots, Blocked Shots) where Carlson not only is clearly better than Hedman but is one of the best among all NHL defensemen.

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