The Contrarian is out to prove that Brandon Dubinsky is not a sleeper.
Last week, fellow Dobber writer, Terry Campkin highlighted Brandon Dubinsky as his Geek of the Week stating that he is a good sleeper candidate.
I will look at his arguments and explain why Dubinsky is not a sleeper to most people.
Terry states, "Currently in Yahoo! pools, Dubinsky is being drafted 160th overall on average, which is towards the end of the 14th round in a 12 team league. As of last Friday, Dubinsky was only 26% owned across all Yahoo! leagues."
Assumption: All pools are roto style
– Dubinsky has value in deep points only pools as well but not nearly as much as in a roto pool. This skews the calculation of his average overall pick.
– Traditionally hockey pools have been points only or formula based. I know that roto style has become more popular over the seasons but it isn't the norm.
Assumption: All participants are drafting in person or using a customized draft list instead of the pre-ordered Yahoo Recommended list.
– There are many fun pools and the owners in those pools don't make many adjustments at all. They also let the autodraft option do their work for them.
– Yahoo's pre-draft rankings have him at the 224 spot. They also rank based on six stat categories, Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Penalty Minutes, Power Play Points and Shots on Goal. To be fair, Terry does talk about other stat categories in his column and does understand that roto leagues are not all the same.
– Not all leagues have the forwards broken down into Left Wing, Center and Right Wing. Some simply indicate that a certain number of Forwards must be drafted and others don't have any limitations at all. In these cases his positional duality doesn't help his overall draft ranking.
With all these assumptions why isn't Dubinsky's draft ranking worse than 160th and not closer to 224th overall?
With guides and sites like Dobber's, poolies have more resources than ever before for draft assistance. Only the very novice or lazy owner gets caught with their jersey tucked into their pants.
The NHL.com Top 100 Fantasy Forwards has Dubinsky rated 84th.
Even better than that list is Austin Wallace's Dobber Top 100 Roto Players (September 2013 edition) where he has Dubinsky rated 27th. This includes a seventh stat category of Hits. Those owners who research and create their own custom draft lists will be picking Dubinsky a lot earlier than the 160th pick and if you are not careful you will lose your opportunity.
Preseason Stats and Line Combinations
Oh Terry, why do you ignore sound advice when you say,