October 7, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-10-07

Welp, it’s too late. I mused below that the Flyers would fire Peter Laviolette by Game 6 if they don’t get rolling, and suggested you acquire some of the slumping players in a game or two. But the team acted faster than I thought and so that strategy goes by the wayside. Ah well…

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One thing I forgot to note this morning – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is making his season debut tonight. Returning from the injury too soon? I think so. Given his recent injury history, I’d give him two more weeks. But we’ll see in a couple of weeks (if he gets injured again) if that’s the right move. The Oilers obviously need him.

Mark Arcobello blew his big chance. He made an impression, but not a big enough one. It was enough for him to stick a few more games, but not enough to get the PP time and ice time… and linemates, for that matter… needed to thrive.

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I’m no longer getting asked the question of which young gun I like better in a keeper, Nathan MacKinnon or Jonathan Drouin. But instead, I’m asked line-related things about MacKinnon. Things like “MacKinnon is on the third line, do you stick to your projection of 70 points?” or “P-A Parenteau is on the third line now, should I panic?” And when I respond to these, I get questioned (or slightly insulted) about said response the way I do when I take one of my stubborn little stances. Actually, I believe one word used was “ridiculous”. My response?

By December, I think MacKinnon’s line will be considered the first line and people will be asking “who gets to play on MacKinnon’s line?” It’s another one of those strong stances I take, that could easily come back to haunt me. He could get injured, and in January the people who took the opposing stance would bring it up in jest. But, barring injury I believe there is a good chance that this will be true. That’s not to say that I could be wrong. I’m just stating what way I believe things will go.

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Most of you probably remember that back in the late winter/early spring I was firmly in the Jonathan Drouin camp. So what happened? Why did I do such a complete reversal to the point where not even getting Steven Stamkos as a likely future linemate brings me back? The Memorial Cup happened. The biggest exposure to MacKinnon that I had prior to that was the WJC, where he was used in a defensive capacity. Yet Drouin was used in an offensive capacity and I got to really see what he could do. But I certainly don’t go by my own eyeballs. I’m not a professional scout. I also go by what I hear and read from GMs, scouts and experts. The Memorial Cup performance put on by MacKinnon put everything to rest. No more chatter about it being a close race. And while I’ll gladly put Drouin in the Taylor Hall, RNH, Nail Yakupov category – I’ll put MacKinnon a level above that, in the John Tavares territory.

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If you want to put together a late draft with the colleagues in your office, I put together several box pools that are easy to print off and implement. I set them up right here.

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The Flyers are in trouble and I get the feeling that they will not get any better until the coach is fired. Peter Laviolette seems to be one of those coaches who loses the room after a few years, that’s all this is. And with the new coach will come a win streak – and some hot players. After six games, if they only win one or two by then, start trying to acquire the players. A perfect buy-low scenario.

Steve Mason played well, stopping 32 of 34 shots, with one of those shots actually a save if it were 2012-13 with the bigger pads. I really do think those smaller pads make a difference – and if you love fantasy hockey, that difference is for the better. Mason is 0-2-0, but a decent save percentage of 0.915.

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Concerned about Elias Lindholm. I doesn’t look as though he sticks beyond nine games. Just nine minutes of ice time in Game 1 – and make it seven minutes of ice time in Game 2. I’ve seen this trend a million times with 18-year-olds, and rarely does it result in sticking around for the full year.

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Like most of us, Kirk Muller loves what he sees in Nathan Gerbe‘s natural talent. He is averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per game, which means that as long as there are no prolong slumps or injuries, he’s a solid sleeper. Gerbe has nine shots on goal in two games.

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Love this question that I was asked on Twitter last week: “Matt Moulson or Matt Duchene?”

And so we have come full circle.

Do you remember back in the John Tavares rookie and sophomore seasons in which Matt Duchene beat him in terms of points? It was pretty much 500+ days of arguments in the forum over who was the better guy to own in keeper leagues – Tavares or Duchene. It’s a great example of why you should remain patient and focus on the upside (as with MacKinnon). Three years later, Tavares has buried Duchene in that conversation to the point where now the question asked is “who is better, a linemate of Tavares or Matt Duchene?” When I saw that Twitter question it really hit home.

For the record, I generally make it a point to favor “the guy” rather than “the guy’s linemate”, which would indicate Duchene. But because Moulson never gets hurt (knock on wood), that is so very valuable to me so it’s Moulson. Also, wingers are harder to get than centers.

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Sean Monahan was a minus-3 Sunday, but he scored, had five shots on goal and was the third star. He’s playing on a line with Lee Stempniak and Sven Bärtschi:

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

22.36%

EV

11 BACKLUND,MIKAEL – 39 GALIARDI,T.J. – 24 HUDLER,JIRI

20.73%

EV

20 GLENCROSS,CURTIS – 54 JONES,DAVID – 38 STREET,BEN

20.33%

EV

47 BAERTSCHI,SVEN – 23 MONAHAN,SEAN – 22 STEMPNIAK,LEE

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8.54%

EV

17 BOUMA,LANCE – 8 COLBORNE,JOE – 16 MCGRATTAN,BRIAN

You can get all line combos for any range of games, from yesterday or a playoff game in 2010 – right here.

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Speaking of clicking things, a lot of you probably don’t know this but if you click on the name of a player in my ramblings, you will be taken to his profile page. On it you will see a log of the players news (transactions, injuries, etc – with source links), season-to-date stats, “last six games” stats, his line combinations at ES and PP – and more. Test it out – James Neal. Go on. Click it. You know you want to.

I’ll be giving Michael and Steve the program to do this so their ramblings will have this feature soon.

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Eddie Lack stopped 32 of 36 shots in his debut, and he got the win.

Meanwhile, the Flames are scoring goals just fine, but goaltending has been suspect. Joey MacDonald has given up eight goals on 60 shots, while Karri Ramo has been better but not too much better stopping 35 of 39. Meanwhile, in the AHL Reto Berra has been pretty solid boasting a 1-1-0 record and a 0.924 SV%.

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In case you missed it last week, here is my Puck Daddy article from Thursday – and here is my Hockey News article, also from Thursday. The THN piece is some hunches that I have.

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My THN article for today will be on the impact of the “real” Alex Ovechkin‘s return. Part of that is Marcus Johansson, who has 24 points in his last 25 games.

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Mathieu Perreault has been dynamite for the Ducks. I love it when my small, skilled guys get an opportunity and pounce on it. Perreault has three points in his last two games, after a rather rocky first outing with his new team. He’s clicking with Jakob Silfverberg.

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Viktor Fasth made up for his weak outing last week by getting the win and allowing just two goals. Or did he? Fasth only faced 17 shots. At this point, a strong outing from Hiller next game puts him firmly in the driver’s seat.

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From the pages of Frustrating. Michael Frolik, still no PP time. Zip for PP time Sunday. He’s not going to manage even 40 points without that, regardless of the hot start.

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Teemu Selanne played his final game in Winnipeg. I love the crowd reaction:

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Selanne’s famous goal:

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Look at this Zach Bogosian gaffe:

 

 

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 18 - 19:04 MIN vs SEA
Apr 18 - 20:04 WPG vs VAN
Apr 18 - 21:04 CGY vs S.J
Apr 18 - 21:04 COL vs EDM
Apr 18 - 22:04 VGK vs ANA
Apr 18 - 22:04 L.A vs CHI

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY MIN
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
JET GREAVES CBJ
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
18.6 BRAD MARCHAND JAKE DEBRUSK CHARLIE COYLE
17.8 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK DANTON HEINEN
17.7 JAYSON MEGNA JAKUB LAUKO JESPER BOQVIST

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