The Contrarian: Buy Low Options, Revisited

Dobber Sports

2013-12-01

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The Contrarian looks at buy low options, and some false buy low options.


I am going to give you a buy low candidate to avoid and a different one to buy that was not supplied in Dobber's article Buy Low – Players To Target.

 

It just so happens that the players I will focus played against each other on Friday in the New Jersey / Carolina game.

 

The player to avoid is Jiri Tlusty. He is a tempting target being only 25 years old but he has only had one good season and that was off of the lockout where if you had a good start you capitalized on your opponents weaknesses.

 

This is what his career statistics show:

 

  GP G A PTS +/- PIM TOI S PTS/G
2013-14 25 3 4 7 -8 8 15:17 43 0.28
2012-13 48 23 15 38 15 18 18:14 117 0.79
2011-12 79 17 19 36 1 26 14:54 136 0.46
2010-11 57 6 6 12 1 14 9:51 53 0.21
2009-10 20 1 5 6 0 6 12:33 17 0.3
2008-09 14 0 4 4 0 0 12:42 22 0.29
2007-08 58 10 6 16 -12 14 10:55 69 0.28

 

I am not saying that he will always be stuck around 0.28 points per game but what I am saying is that he had an aberration in 2012-13.

 

On November 1, 2013, Peter Koutroumpis of the Triangle Sports Network wrote an article Hurricanes' Top Guns Firing Blanks. He suggests that the top line, consisting at the time of Eric Staal, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty, is simply not getting the job done.

 

He writes, "They're shooting, but are getting blocked or missing the net. When they shoot on net, they're getting stopped" and "If this is all the top line has to offer, then the focus on the defense may be a little overbearing because as much as you need to defend, you must equally attack and score."

 

As such, there is no reason to believe that Tlusty will remain on the top line. As the table of statistics shows his time on ice is already about three minutes lower than the previous season.

 

Even if he were to produce at half a point a game for the remainder of this season, he would be close to getting 35 points.

 

One irrational reason to be selling him, an owner in my pool dropped him off his roster for Mathiew Perreault in mid-October. This owner has tended to be quite fortunate with his player movements. I did say that this was an irrational reason but so is flipping a coin to make your March Madness bracket picks and that works fine for me.

 

So if you have Tlusty and someone wants him cheap, show them Dobber's article and up the price a touch but be ready to sell.

 

Which brings me to the other play