The Puck Pastor suggests six moves for fantasy hockey managers with nothing to lose.
Belief is a wise wager. Granted, faith cannot be proved, but what harm will come to you if you gamble on its truth and if it proves false? If you gain, you gain all. If you lose, you lose nothing.
– Blaise Pascal
The above quote by mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal was the topic of the recent talk I had with our local Jr. “A” hockey team are the Portage Terriers. Pretty frequently the team is represented at the national RBC Cup and we actually get to host the tournament in 2015 that everyone is pretty excited about. I've gotten to know some of these guys pretty good and there is nothing they like talking about more than 17th century mathematicians.
Pascal’s Wager is mathematician Blaise Pascal’s argument for why a human being ought to ask ultimate questions of faith and reality. Pascal here was not arguing for any particular beliefs, rather he was pointing out that ultimate questions matter and to not examine them is to bet your life without even considering upside and downside. Because there is much at stake, says Pascal, at least think about these things. Find the upside, minimize the downside, and bet your life accordingly.
For most areas of life this approach is wise. Although I think there are certain times when it needs to be abandoned. You might be in, or getting close to, one of those times. In fact, if you are not in the top tier of your pool at this stage of the season it is probably time to change your approach because there is no real downside for you right now. Because frankly, if you sink from third last to last because of your high risk, high reward, low percentage efforts – who cares? But if the moves pay off you might be poised for a comeback that looks like genius. This is not the time for basement dwellers to play it safe. It's time to make the boom or bust play that could either make your already terrible season worse, or else save it!