Looking Ahead: Week 14
Bob Fisher
2013-12-27
Five players to pick up for Week 14…
Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.
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San Jose Sharks = Target
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Games: 7 (2H/5A)
Favorable Matchups:
   – @ Phoenix
       > 6th worst defensive team
       > 6th worst PK
       > 5th most shots allowed per game
   – vs. Edmonton
       > Worst defensive team
       > 9th most shots allowed per game
       > 30 goals allowed in last eight games (3.75 GAA)
   – @ Nashville
       > 9th worst defensive team
       > 14 goals allowed in the past three games (4.67 GAA)
       > The starting Nashville goaltender has been pulled in the last three games
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The Sharks are fourth in the league in goals scored per game right now. With their upcoming schedule, there is no reason why they can't remain at or improve upon that number. The slate of games starts with a visit to Phoenix where the normally defensive-minded Coyotes have revamped their game and prefer 4-3 contests over 2-1 ones. Next up is a home-and-home with the Ducks, which should be a couple of great games to watch. Sprinkle in a visit from the Oilers, who are always good for allowing a decent number of goals, and then stops in Colorado, Chicago and Nashville and you should see the big guns of San Jose continue to post their stellar numbers.
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Carolina Hurricanes = Consider
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Games: 7 (3H/4A)
Favorable Matchups:
   – @ Washington
       > 7th worst defensive team
       > 2nd most shots allowed per game
       > 19 goals against in the past five games (3.80 GAA)
   – @ NY Islanders
       > 2nd worst defensive team
       > Worst PK
       > Evgeni Nabokov has the "best" stats on the team: 2.93 GAA / .901 SV% / 1 SHO
   – vs. Nashville
       > See above
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The Canes haven't exactly been a hotbed for fantasy stats this season. Most of the team has been a giant disappointment, actually. Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner have been leading the way over the past month (and pretty much the whole season) with Jordan Staal struggling to make his $6M cap hit look somewhat justified. Don't even bring up Alex Semin. I wouldn't expect Carolina to light up the scoresheet, but they should have some decent totals over the next two weeks with stops in Toronto, Washington, Long Island and Buffalo as well as a visit from Nashville (in addition to Pittsburgh and Montreal).
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Toronto Maple Leafs = Beware
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Games: 5 (4H/1A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
   – @ Detroit
       > 8th best PK
       > Game is in Ann Arbor at University of Michigan Stadium
       > Huge national event, should be played more like a playoff game
   – vs. NY Rangers
       > 6th best PK
       > 10th fewest shots allowed per game
       > Cam Talbot: 1.60 GAA (2nd) / .938 SV% (3rd) / 2 SHO (9th)
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The Leafs are one of three teams to only play five games over the span of the next 13 days. Included in those five games is the Winter Classic, which is traditionally low-scoring. There have been five Winter Classics and they average 4.8 goals per game (boosted thanks to ten goals by Detroit/Chicago in 2009). A lot of the Maple Leafs have been struggling lately with only eight goals scored in the past five games (1.60 GPG). While I don't see that poor of a goals for trend continuing, it won't be that much better with only five games between now and January 8th.
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Florida Panthers = Avoid
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Games: 5 (4H/1A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
   – vs. Montreal
       > 3rd best defensive team
       > 4th best PK
       > Carey Price: 2.10 GAA (8th) / .932 SV% (6th) / 2 SHO (9th)
   – vs. NY Rangers
       > See above
   – @ Montreal
       > See above
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There isn't much to write home about when it comes to the Panthers' offensive prowess. In fact, Sidney Crosby has more points than Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall and Aleksander Barkov combined (Florida's top three point-getters). While the Panthers will be playing four straight home games, they include Detroit, Montreal, the Rangers and Nashville, followed by a visit to Montreal. If you're relying on Florida players to lead your fantasy team, you're already in trouble.
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Possible Pickups
Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.
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Carolina: Nathan Gerbe (8%) – Three points in his past four, including eight shots playing alongside Jordan Staal and Semin on Carolina's second line. He also averages the fourth most ice time per game among Hurricane forwards, and fifth on the team on the PP.
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San Jose: Tommy Wingels (28%) – Gets the lucky assignment of skating with Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau at even strength. Number five on the team in overall ice time behind the big four (Marleau, Couture, Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton).
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Nashville: Craig Smith (5%) – Five points in his past three games, including four goals and averaging five shots per game. Currently on Nashville's top line with David Legwand and Nick Spaling. Ride him while he's hot!
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Philadelphia: Michael Raffl (2%) – Seven points, +5, nine hits and 12 shots in his last eight games. His linemates are decent too: Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. He's replaced Scott Hartnell as the third wheel on that top unit.
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Chicago: Kris Versteeg (18%) – Nine points in his last ten. Getting traded back to Chicago was the best thing to happen to Versteeg. Anyone on a regular line with Patrick Kane is worth considering.
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Light Day Targets
Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?
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Week: Monday, December 30 through Sunday, January 5
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Monday: 8 teams
Tuesday: 22 teams
Wednesday: 4 teams
Thursday: 20 teams
Friday: 8 teams
Saturday: 24 teams
Sunday: 10 teams
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Life is back to normal with the Christmas Holiday over now and we're seeing the typical Tuesday / Thursday / Saturday schedule. Wednesday is light due to the Winter Classic with only two games that day.
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So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?
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 |
Mon |
Tues |
Wed |
Thur |
Fri |
Sat |
Sun |
Vancouver Canucks |
X |
 |
X |
 |
 |
X
📢 advertisement:
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X |
Chicago Blackhawks |
X |
 |
 |
X |
X |
 |
X |
Tampa Bay Lightning |
 |
 |
X |
 |
X |
 |
X |
Edmonton Oilers |
 |
X |
 |
X |
X |
 |
X |
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Friday, December 27 to Thursday, January 2 |
Best Bets |
Boston (4.51) – 4 Games: OTW, @OTW, NYI, NSH |
San Jose (4.31) – 4 Games: @PHX, ANH, @ANH, EDM |
Phoenix (4.26) – 4 Games: SJ, @ANH, EDM, CBJ |
Minnesota (4.20) – 4 Games: @WPG, NYI, STL, BUF |
Colorado (4.15) – 4 Games: @CHI, WPG, CBJ, PHI |
Steer Clear |
Tampa Bay (2.80) – 3 Games: MTL, NYR, @VAN |
Pittsburgh (2.85) – 3 Games: @CAR, @CBJ, @NJ |
Florida (2.99) – 3 Games: DET, MTL, NYR |
NY Rangers (2.99) – 3 Games: @WSH, @TB, @FLA |
New Jersey (3.04) – 3 Games: CBJ, @NYI, PIT |
Saturday, December 28 to Friday, January 3 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim (4.32) – 4 Games: PHX, @SJ, SJ, EDM |
Philadelphia (3.99) – 4 Games: @EDM, @VAN, @CGY, @COL |
Edmonton (3.95) – 4 Games: PHI, @PHX, @SJ, @ANH |
Montreal (3.90) – 4 Games: @TB, @FLA, @CAR, @DAL |
Tampa Bay (3.89) – 4 Games: MTL, NYR, @VAN, @CGY |
Steer Clear |
Toronto (2.00) – 2 Games: CAR, @DET |
Dallas (2.68) – 3 Games: STL, LA, MTL |
Nashville (2.70) – 3 Games: LA, DET, @BOS |
NY Rangers (2.76) – 3 Games: @TB, @FLA, @PIT |
Columbus (2.84) – 3 Games: PIT, @COL, @PHX |
Sunday, December 29 to Saturday, January 4 |
Best Bets |
Minnesota (4.36) – 4 Games: NYI, STL, BUF, WSH |
Colorado (4.20) – 4 Games: WPG, CBJ, PHI, SJ |
Montreal (4.20) – 4 Games: @FLA, @CAR, @DAL, OTW |
San Jose (4.16) – 4 Games: ANH, @ANH, EDM, @COL |
Buffalo (4.11) – 4 Games: WSH, @WPG, @MIN, NJ |
Steer Clear |
Chicago (2.88) – 3 Games: LA, @NYI, @NJ |
New Jersey (2.89) – 3 Games: PIT, CHI, @BUF |
Edmonton (2.90) – 3 Games: @PHX, @SJ, @ANH |
Calgary (2.94) – 3 Games: VAN, PHI, TB |
Nashville (2.95) – 3 Games: DET, @BOS, @FLA |
Monday, December 30 to Sunday, January 5 |
Best Bets |
Carolina (4.13) – 4 Games: MTL, @WSH, @NYI, NSH |
San Jose (4.06) – 4 Games: @ANH, EDM, @COL, @CHI |
Nashville (3.90) – 4 Games: DET, @BOS, @FLA, @CAR |
Philadelphia (3.90) – 4 Games: @VAN, @CGY, @COL, @PHX |
Chicago (3.88) – 4 Games: LA, @NYI, @NJ, SJ |
Steer Clear |
Calgary (2.00) – 2 Games: PHI, TB |
Toronto (2.00) – 2 Games: @DET, NYR |
Florida (2.15) – 2 Games: NYR, NSH |
Dallas (2.78) – 3 Games: LA, MTL, DET |
St. Louis (2.79) – 3 Games: @MIN, LA, CBJ |
Tuesday, December 31 to Monday, January 6 |
Best Bets |
Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: @CAR, @DAL, OTW, FLA |
Colorado (4.31) – 4 Games: CBJ, PHI, SJ, CGY |
Carolina (4.13) – 4 Games: MTL, @WSH, @NYI, NSH |
San Jose (4.06) – 4 Games: @ANH, EDM, @COL, @CHI |
NY Islanders (4.01) – 4 Games: @BOS, CHI, CAR, DAL |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa (1.91) – 2 Games: WPG, @MTL |
Washington (1.95) – 2 Games: CAR, @MIN |
Toronto (2.00) – 2 Games: @DET, NYR |
Detroit (2.05) – 2 Games: TOR, @DAL |
Vancouver (2.66) – 3 Games: TB, @LA, @ANH |
Wednesday, January 1 to Tuesday, January 7 |
Best Bets |
Carolina (4.19) – 4 Games: @WSH, @NYI, NSH, @BUF |
NY Islanders (4.15) – 4 Games: CHI, CAR, DAL, @TOR |
San Jose (4.11) – 4 Games: EDM, @COL, @CHI, @NSH |
Tampa Bay (4.09) – 4 Games: @VAN, @CGY, @EDM, @WPG |
Nashville (3.85) – 4 Games: @BOS, @FLA, @CAR, SJ |
Steer Clear |
Florida (1.91) – 2 Games: NSH, @MTL |
Ottawa (1.91) – 2 Games: WPG, @MTL |
Washington (1.95) – 2 Games: CAR, @MIN |
Detroit (2.05) – 2 Games: TOR, @DAL |
Los Angeles (2.80) – 3 Games: @STL, VAN, MIN |
Thursday, January 2 to Wednesday, January 8 |
Best Bets |
Colorado (4.41) – 4 Games: PHI, SJ, CGY, OTW |
Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: @DAL, OTW, FLA, @PHI |
Carolina (4.19) – 4 Games: @WSH, @NYI, NSH, @BUF |
NY Islanders (4.15) – 4 Games: CHI, CAR, DAL, @TOR |
San Jose (4.11) – 4 Games: EDM, @COL, @CHI, @NSH |
Steer Clear |
Detroit (1.00) – 1 Games: @DAL |
Florida (1.91) – 2 Games: NSH, @MTL |
Washington (1.95) – 2 Games: CAR, @MIN |
Toronto (2.26) – 2 Games: NYR, NYI |
Vancouver (2.60) – 3 Games: @LA, @ANH, PIT |