Is Eric Staal really a second-half player?

A theory has formed that Eric Staal is a second-half player. Staal owners are especially hoping this is true this year, as the Carolina Hurricane is off to a bit of a slow start, at least to his standards. Staal's 0.85 points-per-game is the lowest he's had since his rookie season way back in 2003-04.

But is the slow start theory actually true? Is the Canes captain due for a better second half-this year?

Let's start by looking at who Staal has lined up with this year, according to Frozen Pool.

Strangely enough, it seems like everyone not named Elias Lindholm has been given a chance to play on Staal's line. Carolina coach Kirk Muller has tried pretty much everyone on a line with Staal, which may actually be hurting Staal's production. Just look at his line production.

No even strength line has more than four points. By mixing the lines so much, it denies Staal the opportunity to build chemistry with his line mates, like he had last season with Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty. This may hurt Staal's chances to have a stronger second half.

So this begs the question: is Staal a better second-half player? The short answer is no, and the stats support this position.

If we compare Staal's career October, November and December numbers to his career January to April numbers, there's not a lot of difference. We won't use the 2012 season, since it was a shortened season not broken down into halves. And we can't use this season, since the second half hasn't happened yet.

So if you look at Staal's first half numbers from the 2003-04 season to the 2011-12 season, he averages .84 points a game, which equals 34.44 points over 41 games. His second half numbers show his production at .94 points per game, which equals 38.54 points over 41 games.

So in an average year, Staal owners can expect Staal to get four more points in the second half of the season than in the first half. It doesn't sound like Staal's performance in the second half is that different than the first half.

However, there are some reasons Staal fans might be optimistic. His shooting percentage is 8.7 per cent (against a career average of 11.1 per cent), which is his second lowest total since his rookie year. And Staal has scored just one power play goal, despite averaging 3:40 of power play ice time a game. Once those two revert toward his career averages, we'll see a slight uptick in his numbers. However, this uptick may simply make up for his normal four-point average increase in the second half.

So since we shouldn't be expecting that substantial a turn-around in points, how is Staal affecting poolies in leagues with multiple categories?

What really hurts poolies is Staal's plus-minus. He's never been a strong plus-minus guy, as he's only finished as a plus in three of his nine seasons so far, and is a career minus-44. This year, Staal is a minus-15 in just 41 games, which is tied for eighth-worst in the league. That puts him on pace for minus-30, which would be an all-time low for him. He's only had one season when he was above a plus-five, so Staal can't be trusted to help out in this category at all.

Staal is on pace for 20 goals, which would be his lowest output since his rookie year. However, as noted, that should rise a little as his shooting percentage increases. Staal is also on pace for 70 points, which would also match his lowest totals since his rookie year.

However, Staal has been a dynamo on the penalty kill. This year, he has more shorthanded goals (two) than power play goals (one) to go along with a shorthanded assist. Staal has 16 shorthanded goals since he came into the league, tying him for sixth overall in that time span. 

Staal has actually done a lot to improve his faceoffs over the last three years, and poolies have been rewarded so far this year. Staal was a poor faceoff guy for about seven years (his highest faceoff percentage was 48 per cent). But something changed three years ago. His last three years have seen him get 52.5%, 52 per cent and now 50.8 per cent.

Staal already has 46 penalty minutes, which puts him on pace for 92, which would be a career high.

So in the end, poolies should really expect more of the same from Staal for the rest of the season: A relatively strong faceoff guy who has a horrible plus-minus and will produce at about the same rate he currently has is, with a small uptick if his shooting percentage improves. Without consistent line mates, Staal will have trouble finding chemistry like he did last year with Semin and Tlusty.

Just Google "Eric Staal" and "Second half player" and you'll get about 1,500 hits that proclaim him to be a much better player in the final 41 games. The fact is, Staal is generally a consistent player from the start of the season until the end, and the view that he is a second-half player is a myth.

Previously in Forensics:

Looking Back

Tobias Enstrom